beaver...the maddux site definitely does away with the consistancy issue...the openers there are very consistant...
I think if you look at the NorthEastern line from today you will see the issue that stifler (I think) is having a problem with...it opened at BetOnline first at (8) then moved up to (8.5) then BetCris opened it at (6) and the BetOnline line moved right to (5.5) and then (6)...
This doesn't happen with all the lines but it does happen now and then with BetOnline's openers...sometimes they are just way out of whack...
In my opinion i just think using the BetOnline number after BetCris opens or by simply using the BetCris opener this issue could be resolved...
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beaver...the maddux site definitely does away with the consistancy issue...the openers there are very consistant...
I think if you look at the NorthEastern line from today you will see the issue that stifler (I think) is having a problem with...it opened at BetOnline first at (8) then moved up to (8.5) then BetCris opened it at (6) and the BetOnline line moved right to (5.5) and then (6)...
This doesn't happen with all the lines but it does happen now and then with BetOnline's openers...sometimes they are just way out of whack...
In my opinion i just think using the BetOnline number after BetCris opens or by simply using the BetCris opener this issue could be resolved...
In a nutshell...the BetOnline opener is very volitile, while the BetCris opener is more concrete.
PitcBlac2011.........First congrates on being in the top% of the covers college hoops handicapping group. I see your at 53.55%and 16th overall so I respect your opions. It seems the offical OPENING line is the issue we all have if Baily 314 what to post them if j river whats to post sagrin numbers, that 2 is o.k. beaver can decide what to use ...but...if that other info helps some of us deviate A little because i don't think everyone blindly follows every pick the same way. I play dogs only others might do it different thanks and PLEASE keep contributing youe one of the sharper ones here
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
In a nutshell...the BetOnline opener is very volitile, while the BetCris opener is more concrete.
PitcBlac2011.........First congrates on being in the top% of the covers college hoops handicapping group. I see your at 53.55%and 16th overall so I respect your opions. It seems the offical OPENING line is the issue we all have if Baily 314 what to post them if j river whats to post sagrin numbers, that 2 is o.k. beaver can decide what to use ...but...if that other info helps some of us deviate A little because i don't think everyone blindly follows every pick the same way. I play dogs only others might do it different thanks and PLEASE keep contributing youe one of the sharper ones here
I have no problems with contributions...anyone should be able to contribute.
But I don't feel we should have to read posts about products that we need to buy to be good handicappers...there is a place for that and beaver's thread is not that place.
Contributing and sharing info is what these forums are for...not selling products especially when people have already said they are not interested...
If someone wants to freely contribute these numbers that's great...just do it without the informercial...
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11Spread11
I have no problems with contributions...anyone should be able to contribute.
But I don't feel we should have to read posts about products that we need to buy to be good handicappers...there is a place for that and beaver's thread is not that place.
Contributing and sharing info is what these forums are for...not selling products especially when people have already said they are not interested...
If someone wants to freely contribute these numbers that's great...just do it without the informercial...
Thanks Beaver, Good Call on Xavier I like St. Louis to win and the variations of line openings for Northeastern would make things messy.. Thanks again!
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Thanks Beaver, Good Call on Xavier I like St. Louis to win and the variations of line openings for Northeastern would make things messy.. Thanks again!
PitcBlac2011.........First congrates on being in the top% of the covers college hoops handicapping group. I see your at 53.55%and 16th overall so I respect your opions. It seems the offical OPENING line is the issue we all have if Baily 314 what to post them if j river whats to post sagrin numbers, that 2 is o.k. beaver can decide what to use ...but...if that other info helps some of us deviate A little because i don't think everyone blindly follows every pick the same way. I play dogs only others might do it different thanks and PLEASE keep contributing youe one of the sharper ones here
Some have it, some don't. In the end, it's experience and feel! Remembering our mistakes we made is very important, implementing solid rules and marking off small road favs of 4pts or less on every menu saves a ton of money for me. 25 yrs in here. OHH to have back those dumb college yrs fellas, good stuff in here regarding this system. Sagarins system way back in the late 80's was effective for me. It's now kenpom for me, keep up the good work. Remember in the end 'this is only a system..
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Quote Originally Posted by 11spread11:
PitcBlac2011.........First congrates on being in the top% of the covers college hoops handicapping group. I see your at 53.55%and 16th overall so I respect your opions. It seems the offical OPENING line is the issue we all have if Baily 314 what to post them if j river whats to post sagrin numbers, that 2 is o.k. beaver can decide what to use ...but...if that other info helps some of us deviate A little because i don't think everyone blindly follows every pick the same way. I play dogs only others might do it different thanks and PLEASE keep contributing youe one of the sharper ones here
Some have it, some don't. In the end, it's experience and feel! Remembering our mistakes we made is very important, implementing solid rules and marking off small road favs of 4pts or less on every menu saves a ton of money for me. 25 yrs in here. OHH to have back those dumb college yrs fellas, good stuff in here regarding this system. Sagarins system way back in the late 80's was effective for me. It's now kenpom for me, keep up the good work. Remember in the end 'this is only a system..
Beaver this is your thread and your system, it doesn't have to be a democracy or group decision. Run it as you see fit. If some people want their own tweaks they can do that on their own.
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Beaver this is your thread and your system, it doesn't have to be a democracy or group decision. Run it as you see fit. If some people want their own tweaks they can do that on their own.
I've noticed that the same teams keep popping up as plays over and over. For example these teams are coming at us a lot:
Pitt St John's
Rhode Island CMU
Ind. St. OK St.
Drake Rice
SMU Tex Tech
These teams are a combined 62-94-2 ATS
With that kind of headwind, it's a miracle we're at 55% on the year. What is it that Vegas finds so attractive about these teams that KP does not to assign them higher lines than KP? I'm sure there are others (William & Mary comes to mind) just as there are others that Vegas scorns that KP loves (Wisconsin) What factor is Vegas valuing more than KP in these crap teams? If we can figure this out it will give us a leg up in all of the games not just the system plays. The more eyes looking at this the better.
One other thing I've noticed, it seems that Vegas for whatever reason has recently been overvaluing teams that are ranked very by KP, especially in instances when those teams were playing teams ranked significantly higher by KP.
Monday's plays for example: William and Mary +11 (HDN); KP rank - 301; Opponent's rank - 59; James Madison +11.5 (RDT); KP rank - 229; OR - 69; Towson +13 (RDA); KP rank - 342; OR - 190; Santa Clara -1 (HFA); KP rank - 236; OR - 134; Citadel +9.5 (RDT); KP rank - 334; OR - 255; Prairie View -5.5 (HFT); KP rank - 329; OR - 331;
Yesterday i think it was
URI +5.5 (HDT); KP rank 252; OR - 78; TxTech +11.5 (HDT); KP rank 244; OR - 27;
Small sample size obviously, so take it with a grain of salt. I also don't think it should affect the system plays at this point, but I think might be worth paying attention to for the time being.
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Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:
I've noticed that the same teams keep popping up as plays over and over. For example these teams are coming at us a lot:
Pitt St John's
Rhode Island CMU
Ind. St. OK St.
Drake Rice
SMU Tex Tech
These teams are a combined 62-94-2 ATS
With that kind of headwind, it's a miracle we're at 55% on the year. What is it that Vegas finds so attractive about these teams that KP does not to assign them higher lines than KP? I'm sure there are others (William & Mary comes to mind) just as there are others that Vegas scorns that KP loves (Wisconsin) What factor is Vegas valuing more than KP in these crap teams? If we can figure this out it will give us a leg up in all of the games not just the system plays. The more eyes looking at this the better.
One other thing I've noticed, it seems that Vegas for whatever reason has recently been overvaluing teams that are ranked very by KP, especially in instances when those teams were playing teams ranked significantly higher by KP.
Monday's plays for example: William and Mary +11 (HDN); KP rank - 301; Opponent's rank - 59; James Madison +11.5 (RDT); KP rank - 229; OR - 69; Towson +13 (RDA); KP rank - 342; OR - 190; Santa Clara -1 (HFA); KP rank - 236; OR - 134; Citadel +9.5 (RDT); KP rank - 334; OR - 255; Prairie View -5.5 (HFT); KP rank - 329; OR - 331;
Yesterday i think it was
URI +5.5 (HDT); KP rank 252; OR - 78; TxTech +11.5 (HDT); KP rank 244; OR - 27;
Small sample size obviously, so take it with a grain of salt. I also don't think it should affect the system plays at this point, but I think might be worth paying attention to for the time being.
All things considering I thought the system faired pretty well. I try to stick w/ the well known schools. Pitt and Indiana St were moving away from Kenpom and covered. St. Joe's at 4 was a nice pick. Oklahoma St. and St. John's were very nice ML's if you had the balls to make the plays.........Pick your spots
P.S. Rhode Island had that locked up, can't believe they blew it
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All things considering I thought the system faired pretty well. I try to stick w/ the well known schools. Pitt and Indiana St were moving away from Kenpom and covered. St. Joe's at 4 was a nice pick. Oklahoma St. and St. John's were very nice ML's if you had the balls to make the plays.........Pick your spots
P.S. Rhode Island had that locked up, can't believe they blew it
All things considering I thought the system faired pretty well. I try to stick w/ the well known schools. Pitt and Indiana St were moving away from Kenpom and covered. St. Joe's at 4 was a nice pick. Oklahoma St. and St. John's were very nice ML's if you had the balls to make the plays.........Pick your spots
P.S. Rhode Island had that locked up, can't believe they blew it
yep exactly. I always sprinkle in on the ml too on the dogs.
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Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:
All things considering I thought the system faired pretty well. I try to stick w/ the well known schools. Pitt and Indiana St were moving away from Kenpom and covered. St. Joe's at 4 was a nice pick. Oklahoma St. and St. John's were very nice ML's if you had the balls to make the plays.........Pick your spots
P.S. Rhode Island had that locked up, can't believe they blew it
yep exactly. I always sprinkle in on the ml too on the dogs.
Good stuff Beaver, my list is right on. I didnt have Sac St (just a different opening number probably). I really liked the Oak play tonight, but I also hated the Pitt play last night (and liked Providence last night....we seen how that played out...lol)
Good stuff Beaver, my list is right on. I didnt have Sac St (just a different opening number probably). I really liked the Oak play tonight, but I also hated the Pitt play last night (and liked Providence last night....we seen how that played out...lol)
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