Tuesday System Plays

Originally Posted by Jarrett75

my problem is you are making an alias up to come on someones thread who works hard, trying to leach off his publicity. Go talk to you alias in your own thread. Don't try to bite off someone else.

Good for you, these guys come in here 2,3 alias every week touting themselves. Pathetic

Best of luck tonight Kine P

Dude...

1) Don't do that.  This isn't your forum and you are not a mod.
2) F*ck off
3) You have 81 posts.  Respect your elders.
4) Some people might like having the information that I posted.

I apologize for being blunt.  And, I see your point; so I'll try to keep from posting plays so far from the actual system.

Rock on Wendy'sRox  

 

Originally Posted by GetEveryDollar

Some funny shit going on around here 

Hi Snap and all the other followers of Kine's posts.

What follows below is a summary by line using Kine's criteria (except the line) for the prior three seasons, February-April, and the current season to date for the month of February.

The data may vary slightly from Kine's, due to such things as exact historic ranking, but it presents a good overall picture at what happens at each line interval.

Also, please keep in mind that Kine uses specific dates in the month of February to implement his system and what is presented below includes all games played in February.

Sorry if the formatting gets messed up but pasting into here doesn't seem to work well.
             
      PRIOR 3 SEASONS     CURRENT SEASON
       FEB/MARCH/APRIL    FEB YTD
LINE    RECORD             RECORD    PERCENT
1     15-18  45.5%             5-2    71.4%
1.5     17-18    48.6%         2-5    28.6%
2     13-24    35.1%           2-3    40.0%
2.5     21-18    53.8%         2-3    40.0%
3     30-12    71.4%           3-3    50.0%
3.5     15-16    48.4%         2-2    50.0%
4     21-19    52.5%           2-1    66.7%
4.5     12-14    46.2%         2-2    50.0%
5     12-14    46.2%           4-0    100.0%
5.5     12-20    37.5%          0-0    0.0%
6     14-9    60.9%             3-0    100.0%
6.5     9-7    56.3%            1-1    50.0%
7     17-4    81.0%            1-2    33.3%
7.5     7-8    46.7%           1-1    50.0%
8     12-6    66.7%            2-1    66.7%
8.5     8-6    57.1%           0-0    0.0%
9     7-3    70.0%             1-2    33.3%
9.5     6-5    54.5%           3-0    100.0%
10     4-2    66.7%           2-1    66.7%
10.5     3-3    50.0%         0-0    0.0%
11     7-1    87.5%           0-0    0.0%
11.5     5-1    83.3%        1-0    100.0%
12     8-1    88.9%           3-1    75.0%
12.5     2-1    66.7%         0-1    0.0%
13     2-5    28.6%          0-0    0.0%
13.5     3-2    60.0%       0-0    0.0%
14     2-2    50.0%          0-0    0.0%
14.5     3-2    60.0%       0-0    0.0%
15     1-0    100.0%        0-0    0.0%
15.5     2-0    100.0%     0-0    0.0%
16     1-0    100.0%        0-0    0.0%
16.5     1-1    50.0%       1-0    100.0%
17     1-0    100.0%         0-0    0.0%
17.5     1-2    33.3%        0-0    0.0%
20.5     1-0    100.0%      0-0    0.0%
                   
All Lines
              295-244     54.7%        43- 31    58.1%
                   
LINE >= 6.5   
                113-62     64.6%        16-10    61.5%

so from what i can see pepperdine is +6 tonight and combined for the past few years teams at +6 on the road against teams worst than 180 are 3-0 already this year and 17-9 overall right?

Thanks, Barn, I do remember that now that you bring it up.  I suppose  2+ possessions is an intelligent number, but I wonder if buying a point here and there when the spread is less than 61/2 isn't the smart thing to do.   I was playing the "almost" plays but at a lower unit size wager.  Now I am making those plays full wagers if buying a half point or full point pushes the spread over 6/12, and the teams meet all other qualifications.  Seems to be working so far.  Just a little tweak to the Kine's system.  If it stops working, I'll drop it like a bad habit.

So with 3+ years of date it looks like anytime a Dog goes on the road against a sub 180 team, you should be 50+% betting on the dog regardless of what the line is.

 

Is that corrrect?

Hi Nap,

That is correct.  +6 has been a strong number.

Hi Boat,

That has been the case though I would add to what you wrote for the only the conferences as defined be Kine and only in the months of February/March/April.

I would think the post feb factor is a bigger deal than the conf. The "give up" factor of being out of the race for a title or a post season birth IMO is the driving force in this.

appreciate your work greymatters, that was a solid contribution to this thread. 

Good point. It was +8 this morning... shows lot of love for Pepperdine.

What has me nervous about Pepperdine is this:  The system is based on the emotion of a sorry home team being less due to their poor record and dialing it in for the season.  Thus we are betting against them because even though they are playing an even worse team, they probably shouldn't be favored by 6 1/2 at this juncture versus hardly anybody.  But what happens to that emotion when they are being nationally televised.  Will the home team get up more for that game?

This being said....Pepperdine is getting only 6 which doesn't qualify it as a system play.  Would it still be wise to buy an extra half point to get to 6 1/2 when the home team may come out harder because the ESPN U cameras are there?

what makes u think pepperdine is not going to play hard because its on tv?? that works both ways

Official system plays for 02-17-11 #184 North Texas -10 vs South Alabama / play South Alabama +10                                            

#192 Denver -13.5 vs UL Monroe/ play UL Monroe +13.5

any of you guys betting Pepperdine anyway?

Just pulled the trigger on Pepperdine.  I just stayed with the +6.   Gonna be watching the game since its on tv.  Hoping for the best  with this almost system play.

Doc's sports free pick is also taking ULM. I know they are not always correct (nothing is) but its always good for a little reassurance

Montana State?  

 Originally Posted by rousseau Montana State?  

What's your problem?