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SYSTEM KICKED BUTT YESTERDAY and looking for a repeat performance today

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
I like how you are defining the FADE.

This passes the KISS (keep it simple smartass) test. It would be great to populate the algo with historical data and determine the most profitable number of wins/losses in a streak to play. (I'd imagine the number could be close to 3).

Do you feel that the system used for regular season play only?  Do you feel environment is exclusive in conf/big dance tournaments. 

Cool man
 
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Posted: #27
So, the plays (as I see em) are:
 
AZ St. +3.5
CIN +4.5
Wash. St. -3
St. Joe's +3.5
 
and probably
 
Det. +6
Santa Clara +10.5
 
What do you think?
 
 
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Posted: #28
hey bob do we play against the high teams that have covered alot or the ones where they havent covered in a while...cause I am really liking Weber tonight...one of the best teams in the Big sky and Northern Arizona one of the worst,....1-7 ats in the last 8 and weber should just steam roll them
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Eastwood7:

I dont understand Richmond covered lastnight WTF

Nope line was -11, they won by 10 I believe

 
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Posted: #30
so what do you think about those 6 goaline/silent bob
 
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Posted: #31
DISCO D69

Please Help me out understanding this thread better, what does not enough bets mean ?  the added criteria?  Much appreciation
 
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Posted: #32
goaline which ones are you playing?
 
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Posted: #33
so we have so far
AZ St.  
Cincy
Wash. St.
 
second half...
 
St. Joe's
Det.
 
 
pending
Santa Clara  (....? I think)....
 
nice little 5 teamer,,,how much more do we need,,,,,
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by verobeach:

DISCO D69

Please Help me out understanding this thread better, what does not enough bets mean ?  the added criteria?  Much appreciation

All I'm doing is looking at the betting market and attempting to determine whether or not the oddsmakers ACCTUALLY do want to even out these guys ATS records...

for example...

goalinebob's system states that if Team A is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games Vegas will stack the line in their favour to get them a cover...my added criteria is that you have to look at the action Team A is getting...if team A is still getting bet at a 75% rate, why would Vegas even that out...so if Team A is 0-6 ATS yet still getting 75% the play would actually be their opponent (or a no play) **this is my additional criteria**

So if Team Z is 0-6 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% - team Z could be considered a play

conversly, if team X is 3-0 ATS and getting 75% their opponent should be considered a potential play...if team X is 3-0 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% I would say team X is worth a look (which is opposite what Bob's play would be) (I say try to ride the wave )

Does that make sense?

 

 
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Posted: #35
sorry guys been working on saturday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
about half done ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:

so we have so far
AZ St.  
Cincy
Wash. St.
 
second half...
 
St. Joe's
Det.
 
 
pending
Santa Clara  (....? I think)....
 
nice little 5 teamer,,,how much more do we need,,,,,
 

I like those ones, and my bad St. Joe's should be in the second list...but as far as I can tell...all 6 should be considered system plays

 
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Posted: #37
Cincy will get kiled sorry to rain on your little parade
 
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Posted: #38
Disco, have you used your thoughts on the top plays for today?  In other words what are you taking tonight out of the system
 
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Posted: #39
guys the system without disco d's postst but carry good merit all system says is go against the top winners streaks as they need to come back to reality and vegas helps that with point spread and just the opposite the big losing records need to finally win a game so vegas will give them the needed points to do that
 
also if a team is on a major win most people will tail them and then comes the hammer as vegas sucks them in and bam the point spread is their doom,,,,,,,,,,,,any thing with a + 3 wins or loses in a row is time to go with the losers and against the winners,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by matpat3000:

Disco, have you used your thoughts on the top plays for today?  In other words what are you taking tonight out of the system

I look at bob's system, then compare it to the betting market...

the 6 plays listed above are the ones I pulled out

 
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Posted: #41
cardinal,,, you could be right but you play it as you see fit there is no problem here,,,best to you today,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
There are no guarantees in life so lets play them as our cards and own plays appear and we can review them tomorrow,,,,,,,,,,,,i'm definitely not telling anyone what to play or how to spend their money,,,,that is your decision,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #42
disco out of the plays yesterday how many won and lost
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:

guys the system without disco d's postst but carry good merit all system says is go against the top winners streaks as they need to come back to reality and vegas helps that with point spread and just the opposite the big losing records need to finally win a game so vegas will give them the needed points to do that
 
and all I'm adding is basically saying make sure the betting market IS actually betting the streaks because if they aren't there is no reason for the oddsmakers to adjust....or if they are betting heavily against the trend then same thing...
 
also if a team is on a major win most people will tail them and then comes the hammer as vegas sucks them in and bam the point spread is their doom,,,,,,,,,,,,any thing with a + 3 wins or loses in a row is time to go with the losers and against the winners,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:

disco out of the plays yesterday how many won and lost

1 sec....

 
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Posted: #45
DISCO IS RIGHT,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
and all I'm adding is basically saying make sure the betting market IS actually betting the streaks because if they aren't there is no reason for the oddsmakers to adjust....or if they are betting heavily against the trend then same thing...
 
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Posted: #46
Yeah no hard feelings GB... love the system but thinking Huggins going back to Cincy he will wanna beat them and beat them BAD
 
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Posted: #47
Hey goalline, HOW about 6-0
 
thats right, the added criteria produced a 6-0 night with Rice winning outright as a 12 point dog and S. Illinois winning outright as a 6 point dog...
 
So, are all 6 worth a look tonight? I think so...
 
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Posted: #48
big play on saturday is baylor at -8 loses in a row boy do they need help,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they are the worst in all 270 teams ATS
 
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Posted: #49
disco sounds good to me esp after last night,,,,,,,,,,
 
 
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Posted: #50
last night's results (w/ added criteria):
 
St. Bonny +1 
Fordham +11
Northeastern +1.5
Rice +12
S. Illinois +6
Texas Tech +15
 
the only one I played was St. Bonny but I've been keeping an eye out and overall the system is doing quite well...in fact the only loss I can think of this week with the added criteria was St. Johns @ home vs. Syracuse....
 
Tonight, I'm gonna play all 6
 
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