SHIRLEY'S LINES FOR TUESDAYS GAMES with a TWIST

I'm able to jump on this site for a few minutes, so I will provide all of our lines for the late game on Thursday. Just to let you know up front, there is absolutely nothing as far as sides go, but as an excercise to provide the information, I will do so.

All lines are in terms of recent form, which have been more accurate despite going 1-2 in top plays on Tuesday and 0-4 on other games of interest.

Trust me with these numbers, the logic is sound and based on past years records, the recent form numbers are superior to the overall numbers.

For record keeping we were 1-2 on top plays and 0-4 on others totalling 1-6 for Tuesday. I believe this was the first losing day in a long long time on side wagers. We have been pretty fortunate up to now, IMO.

Remember, of our previous 57-20 record, 53-20 was obtained on 4 point differences or more. I will count the other losing games of interest in the record (not Purdue as a fav it never qualified), it's still great and probably still in the top 10% on this site.

If you had played only those games (4 point differences), as recommended, you should have gone 1-2 on Tuesday. DIscipline is an important factor in gambling, never forget that

Overall record on this site (61.11%).

Overall record on sides on this site 58-26 ( 69.04%).

Tonight's late game lines

Coastal Carolina   -6.00

G Tech                   -4.90  

AZ ST                    -2.20

Nev                        -1.30

Wash                    - 4.30

A P                        -9.20

Wisc                      -6.40

Drake                    -2.20

UC DAVIS           -5.70

Wash St               -3.00

Pacific                 -10.80

Idaho                    -5.10

S J St                   -2.60     

Shirley 

HEY SHIRLEYS LINE PERSON

Been there done that for real some 45 yrs. sports would absolutely love, pay few bucks to get your line posts dailey. SOOOOOO ? Fabulous handicap selection tool I think.

Direct e mail?  GREAT WORK

Shirley.............what happened to your "there's more value in over/unders than sides theory" you had a while back??????

that didn't work out very well for you did it??

now you're on to sides ATS........hmmmmmm  good luck with that......I have been reading your logic on lines. IT MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE.People here are following you blindly,........you're burning them

Hi Alien. first of all I welcome your comments and will address them.

If you have been paying attention, you should know that what we do is predict the final score of the game. The sum of 2 variables is the total, and the difference of 2 variables is the side. I'm sure you can follow me so far. We suggest a wager if the line is 4 points from our predicted line. Stay with me here, but I 'm sure you get the idea. We are trying to accurately predict tonights game, with more accuracy than the linesmaker. If this makes NO SENSE to you, you should seriously purchase a couple of basic handicapping books that can explain it better than I.

Now, for the last 7+ years we have aggresively been wagering on totals, mostly after Jan 21 or thereabouts and were quite successful hitting over 65% of these games. We have ALWAYS predicted the sides as well, because you have to in order  to predict the total .

(A+B ) + TOTAL Projection

(A-B)   = SIDE Projection

This year, unlike the last 7+ years we struggled with the totals. We have been better recently but even after 1051 plays we are only at 55.946% ( 588- 462). This is very disappointing to us, considering our "dead time theory" (Eg; Michigan State Over last night) games have hit nearly 70%. If we take these out, our record is unimpressive on totals

This is either a statistical anomoly, that we can't figure out, OR the lines are getting tougher (perhaps this is the case, OR we just aren't that good at totals.

Don't get me wrong, we are still up 79.8 units on totals wagers this year, but this does include all 1H and 1H totals wagers and dead time theory bets as well. It's still a good neighborhood (units wise), but pretty abysmal by our previous standards.

Can you still make alot of money on totals? Of course ,but you have to wager alot of money to do so. 79.8 units at 5K+ per game still puts a lot of rice on the table, however since the winning pct is so low, you should have a HUGE BR to accommodate such wagers. I can only speculate, but my guess is that at least 95% of the people on this site wager under 2K per game.

My overall record on this site still speaks for itself. I have nothing to prove to anyone, and I am certainly feel quite comfortable and  capable of debating anyone on this site in almost any "advantage play opportunity" whether it be sports wagering, casino gambling, horse racing, or other gambling opportunities including tournaments etc.  I can properly figure out the edge, and the optimal wager depending on your risk aversion, so  that your BR will grow within your individual risk level.

If people are blindly following me.........then they have done very well.

If I have "burned them" by picking 61.11% winners on this site, then they are only making 18.331% on each and every play that I have suggested. It's just a little better than 3 times the going rate of some junk bonds these days that  I probably wish I wasn't involved in, and it beats a MM acct as well.

You're right about 1 thing  though, NOBODY should blindly follow anyone. None of us is smarter than all of us. If that is what bothers you, then I am in full agreement with you. Remember, I only recommend wagering on 4 point differences IN CONJUCTION with your own handicapping talents.

From My observations, and those of many astute gamblers in the world, the totals are still softer than the sides. At least that's what the books still believe, BECAUSE THEY STILL DELAY PUTTING UP TOTAL NUMBERS, BEING AFRAID THEY WILL GET BURNED BY SHARPS BETTING INTO THEIR WEAK NUMBERS.

It's not just my theory, it's that of the linesmakers themselves. See the above and reread it again and again until it sinks in.

I have always asked for everyone to tear apart my numbers, and there have never been any takers. Gamehunter once made an astute observation, and of course he was correct!  I think I was 6-1 that night, and he astutely picked the only loser (that's why we respect his knowledge and his opinion. He is smart, and I know it. Camby is another very smart person in this room. V Vandal, Train, Man Ram, etc, Las Vegas Lord is great at Hockey. Counting the Deck is good too. These are all very good handicappers, and if they speak, you should probably listen, as their judgement IMO is very good. I am leaving  a bunch of people out, but you get the idea.

My question to you is...Where were you while I was going 57-20?  I think it's rather weird and unusal that you have finally appeared after my best bets went 1-2. So, I lose 1.2 units and you are all over me?  My guess is that you have been wating 45 days or so to say what you did, because it's been that long since I've lost in here, I'm not really sure.

I hope I have addressed your concerns, and I DO repect your opinion, and of course I wish you well. After all, I was abducted once or twice in the past, and I think you might have been on the ship with me :)

I have neve personally attacked anyone on this site, unless they have fired the first bullet. If I wished, I could tear down the logic and plays of the best handicappers in these rooms, but what would be the point?

My next posting will be for Round 1 of the tourney.

Shirley

I don't believe we are wagering on any of the late sides tonight, although my partner does have opinions on many of the totals, which have struggled this year.

Just use these numbers in conjuction with your own handicapping thoughts. If you like a game, and you like our numbers, then perhaps you can go with it

Best of Luck

Shirley

Paramedic, It is impossible for me to be here this weekend. We have plans that take us well into next week, starting tomorrow (today now) morning at 8AM EST. I will post tourney lines for day 1 and that might be it. In the later rounds, when teams have time to prepare for each other I'll have a couple of total predictions. Last year we had a large under in the 2H of the Duke finale. We scouted and waited on that one for days. Maybe, we'll get lucky again this year.

My advise is to follow your intuition and the other good cappers on this site.  There is plenty of good information in this room that you can utilize to your advantage. I mentioned a few of the good ones, and there are others.

As a handicapper, I am behind those folks, for sure. My focus is in too many directions to actively compete. As far as generating accurate numbers, I can certainly hold my own, mostly because we have been doing it for so long. 

However, It's a combination of numbers AND handicapping that the most successful players possess. I am guessing that Camby, Counting the Deck, Man-Ram, Gamehunter, Las Vegas Lord (in hockey), Train (for sure), Vegas Vandal all possess this special talent. There are others I am omitting, my apologies. The point is none of us is as smart as all of us.

I'm sure that each of these people above possess superior handicapping ability than I. Another person in here that I KNOW is very intelligent is Humblepie. He doesn't post that often, but his dry wit combined with his keen observations, are more than enough to convince me that if he decided to dedicate more time to wagering, he would be highly successful, no doubt. He is also very good at lip reading!

Tonight there was only 1 game where the dog had a delta of more than 3, UCLA.+8 (3.70 delta) and it won.  After looking at the play by play of this game. UCLA had a 4 point lead AND the ball with 5 minutes and change left. Yet, they managed somehow to get behind by 10 points for a moment or two down the stretch! This shows you that there is indeed a fine line sometimes between a win and a loss. Although really being the right side for over 97% of the game, if you bet them, a loss was certainly possible, and a push was highly likely. Go figure.

We have been against Washington all year, as we have them as being an overrated team. I have to admit though, they are fun to watch, although I rarely watch games anymore  It will be interesting to see them daunt their style in the tourney, and see if their opponent can keep up with the pace of the game.

Best of luck this weekend.

Shirley

Thank You Shirley you always bring great postings to the site.I always scan the site for your postings along with some of the fellow Cappers you listed.I have a question about the other site you and your partners participate in .Does this site have alot of discussion in the finer points of Capping ,and lets say a round table of how to get the most out of sports wagering. I was just curious seems like a nice place to be a part of. Well thanks again and am always looking forward to your next posting.