SHIRLEY'S LINES FOR TUESDAYS GAMES with a TWIST

First of all thanks for all of the suppport. My last posting yielded 1 best bet selection and winner St Joes + (16/ 16.5).
My record on this site is 57-20 for college BB sides (74.02%) and my overall record on covers is 63.5%.

Since we are entering the 3rd phase of the college BB season, another adjustment is necessary in order to post more accurate lines.

We are going to list 2 lines for the each of tonight's games. The first number is the way we usually project the spread, with the last 8 games played having an impact of 150% in our model.

The second number is our predicted spread with the last 8 games by each team having an impact of 200%. In addition, non-conference games played earlier in the season have been eliminated from the overall rating. As we approach tournament time, recent form is the name of the game here.  What we did, and how we played in Nov/Dec, has little impact on games played in March.

I will leave it up to each individual to choose which line they prefer. If both lines are leaning in one direction, then certainly it's a no brainer (play the game if you like it). If just the overall rating (line 1) is leaning towards a wager, and not the most recent form projection (line 2), it might be better to lay off. However, if the overall projection is neutral (line 1), and the most recent form numbers (line 2) are leaning towards a play, I'm inclined to use these in my selection process.

For record keeping on this site, we will now use the updated 200% impact numbers (line 2) as our current line projection for official wagers. That is the 2nd set of numbers.

I'm sure many  handicappers out there will like this numerical display, to reinforce their opinions as to what direction a team is heading in as they approach their respective conference tourneys or the Big Dance.

These numbers are not perfect, and I do not claim them to be, however based on past years experiences it is more effective to use the updated numbers than not. My tournament lines for day 1 will be in the same format as below.

If you watched Notre Dame dismantle a Villanova team desperately searching to regain its identity, or Kansas State taking it to Texas, another team in a tailspin, you have to admit that RECENT FORM heavily influenced both of these events.

If you asked me in December if K State would have a chance in Texas, I'd laugh at you, but yesterday our adjusted recent form numbers had this game as a virtual toss-up, based solely on the collapse of 1 team (see the Col disaster on Saturday by Texas) and improved play by K State. The same can be said of Notre Dame and Villanova.

Please note that not every game on the Tuesday card is listed. My apologies and Best of luck.

Shirley

                      Overall ratings           Recent form

Wright State      -4.50                          -2.20
Detroit               -4.90                          -0.60
Cleveland St.    -12.80                     -10.70
Florida               -6.60                         -7.90
Purdue               -6.30                       -12.80
Ok St                 -2.40                         -3.70
Neb                   -0.90                         -0.70
Ohio State        -6.70                         -3.70

Quote Originally Posted by 702underdog:

Interesting! Thanks for sharing your insight and lines.

Thank you, 702 Underdog .  Hopefully this will be  easy to follow for all that take a peek. 

If the rest of our lines are updated in a timely fashion, perhaps I will  be able to post most of the remaining games on Tuesday's card.

Shirley

That's a good question that  I will address. You STILL look for 4 point differences to have an "official" BEST BET. That has not changed at all.

I have always posted projected spreads. It seems that there was a lot of confusion listing the games the way I did. This confusion even existed with members who have been on the covers site for years ,with many more posts than I.

In an effort to make this as easy as possible for everyone, I have just listed my "lines" or "numbers" in a format that most people are used to seeing when making a wager or looking at game lines in general.

MY favoite in a game simply has a minus (- ) sign in front of the teams name. I hope this doesn't confuse you.

Shirley

So, based on the 200% impact lines, the plays would be:

Lo-Chi +5

Ill-Chi +15.5

Pur - 8.5

Penn St +7 (maybe its close)

Shirley, your posts here on covers are much appreciated. Thanks

[Quote: Originally Posted by karjacker] Hi Guys.. I'm learning this as go along.. please correct me as i'm wrong. but seem line base on Shirley's line.. 2 strongest official play tonite that fall in the 4 points different official bet is Loyola-Chicago & Illinois Chicago. Also Wic-Green Bay is on the 3 point difference which also could be considerable play.

The Rest of the line are NO PLAY since the variance are small..

is this right?
Thanks
KJ

Right, unless WI GB moves to +6.5, then that would be considered a play as well. Purdue is a no play for me in my book @ -10