Good solid information. My question is with Point spreads because I don't know how many times I've got the winner correct but they don't cover. So how do you know when to stay away from a point spread and go to the money line? I've been screwed expecially with ATS this year on Football. It's mostly the 1/2 point spreads that get me.
I'd be skeptical about that being a play. Would be keen to hear reds thoughts, but the line jumped from -7 to -4 in just an hour very early on. Haven't done the research but to me that suggests perhaps a player was ruled out or something similar, and since then the line movement has been pretty much as it should be - from -4.5 out to -5 and now to -5.5 with around 80% of the cash on the favourite.
Just looked at Iowa st KU, recent injuries - nothing.. at least nothing i can find that'ss been reported. The movement seems pretty organic as well. I can see where The initial jumped happened as it shifted from 3% on Iowa to 30% which tells me there were probably some very large wagers made very early on this game. The line has since moved as it should. As far looking deeper into this - Iowa St struggles from three but Kansas is one of the worst in the country defending the perimiter so they could definitely get things going - on the flip side kansas is one of the best in country from close range but KU defends that the inside well - but i think alot their success is defending the paint where as iowa is just good on the short range jumper. I like this play, dont love this play. What i dont love is Iowas ability to rebound and they one of the worst 320th i believe in defending the fast break. However their home court advantage is ONE OF THE BEST IN THE COUNTRY.
I think its worth taking for a small amount which breaks my rule of being conservative and 'Uniting' plays but if you wanted to reliable action tonight its worth sprinkling a little something on.
First off I'm amazed by the amount of people who continue to post here - I never imagined my guide turning into what it has, very cool!
One thing I want to add and I should have included or emphasized more is the use of kenpom. True RLM isn't just a guide to blindly bet any play that fits. If it was I'd still be able to post picks as much as I did last season. If the every game on a given day is a map, this system just tells you where on the map to look. You still need to dive into each game on Kenpom (I think kenpom is a gamblers best friend) and find why that game is or isn't a good play - Hell theres been times when I'm looking to see if I like team B and in doing so I uncover the under being a great play and hammer it. You wanna look at player rankings - who do they use the most offensively and what do those guys excel in, can they expose team Bs weaknesses? Look at who's going rebound better, look at previous match ups. Theres so much information there for you to widdle down 1 or 2 great games on day/night where theres a large card but you need to take the time to comb through the stats on each matchup. I cannot emphasize this enough.
BOL!!
Western Illinois is one that I have been looking at. I threw a small bet on them. Both teams are bad defensively and play fast so there should be a lot of points. W. Ill takes care of the ball and is good at creating turnovers. They are not spectacular at home (243rd)...
Like I said small..hahah BOL
Bradley is looking like a play. I am digging a bit deeper. Great home court advantage (53rd) and the hit the offensive glass hard. S. Ill is poor on keeping teams off the offensive glass and they have a high turnover rate. Bradley has a tad better offensive efficiency rating as well.
Beware.. one of Bradley's top players Elijah Childs is out. They still have another big that is top in the country on the off and def glass though.
I am throwing a small play on them at -7.5. Would wait till closer to tip to play this but I am out tonight.
GL 
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