Reds $$$$ Method - Explained

So over the last 10 years I’ve employed a system so to speak thats work tremendously for me.  I’ve used to both gamble as a way to support myself and loves ones as well as to Tout.  As I have new job that involves long hours both in the office and at home afterwork I’m just not able to spend as much time capping these games as I should as a result I think my quality of play has suffered this year.  Anyone who remembers my record last season, I had much more free time and my picks reflected it .I’m struggling to hit 70% non conference, this never happens.  Because of this, I want to share my method with all of you, as an aid to what you already use to be successful in your own right, so here it goes.

#1 Reverse Line Movement - RLM is when a spread moves in the opposite direction of the way it should (ex: team A opens at -10 with 80% of the money on them but the line moves to -7.  Thats RLM)  But wait, first look into why this is happening.  If its because of any sort of injury since the opening line came out then tread with caution, this is a false positive and so beware.  If theres no injuries then bingo, start circling Team B as potential candidate.  Also take the time to focus and look into the %s on each team through out the day - Theres 2 sites I primarily use for this (Vegasinsider and Scoresandodds)  I like to make sure the majority % of money has been on Team A since the lines came out - as opposed to a last minute swing.  Vegasinsider also has a way you can track the line movements in 15 minute increments vs the % of money (Trend Movement vs. Line) on each game all on one convenient page, its great!

#2 Home games only!  I can’t stress this enough, only focus on true home games. There's something to be said about playing on the same court that you've been playing on all year. Anyone who's playing hoops knows no two courts are same. Lights hardwood what's behind the hoop itself etc all effect dribbling, depth perception on shots etc.. True home-court advantage is grossly underrated in college ball.  Every now and then a neutral site is worth the shot but again, home games are where its at.

#3 Home Dogs - Nothing gets my blood pumping like a home dog with RLM.  About 6 years ago I strictly took home dogs that fit this system for a few seasons and hovered around 71%.  There were only about 35 games or so I took so they’re few and far between but if your patient and wait for the right game to come along you make really good money, which brings me to my last and final point

#4 Be selective!!!  I cant stress this enough, dont gamble just because you need the action - this type of gambler is who the books make their money on.  In fact if youre this type of better I will personally be your book! (Kidding…kind of..) But in all seriousness, wait to take your shots.  The whole betting units thing is for the birds, if a play isn’t worth putting some serious money on, then its not worth betting.  Save your money for a better pick

It’s a lot of work to do it correctly as you need to keep eyes on these lines and make sure they hold true and steady, but I promise you its worth and it pays dividends in the long run. If anyone has any questions please don’t hesitate to ask, I’ll be happy to answer.  This system of mine has given me great success and it brings me great pleasure to share it with all of you! Cheers!

-red

thank you for your time red

I knew I was forgetting something!!

#5.  Kenpom, PAY FOR THE SUBSCRIPTION!! Its 19$ for the year and gives great information on teams.  Without it I'd be lost.  It has incredibly in-depth data and analytics on teams you can't find anywhere else.  Its worth every penny and then some!

whats so special about Kenpom versus like the covers matchups? thank you again

Thanks Red. Great information. I sent you a friend request. 

Kenpom is much more in depth - Off reb %vs teams def %. Avg time of  poss. TO rate/ Nonsteal TO rate.  I also love how he rates teams; something called adjusted ____ (so offense defense fg etc.)  The basis of this is based off a teams 100 possessions.  So if you go to the home page right now you can see base on his system has Ohio St # with Avging 113.1 pts on offense per 100 possessions while theyre defense avgs 85.9 pts per 100 possesions.  Once you click on the teams/match ups (paid service) thats where the stats get real in depth.  You can quickly see how they've done this year on road/home/neutral and how that teams was ranked on kenpom etc.  Again a lot of good info and worth the 19$ (drop in the bucket to what we all wager each season)

Wise words....

#4...guilty myself

Thanks for the write up...

Smack - Thank you!

Digger - I think we all have! This is a marathon not sprint. I can't emphasize home dogs enough, St Josephs is a great example! 

thanks for your input! does this method work across all sports or mostly just ncaab?

Much appreciated Red!

For me it works best with college hoops.  One thing I should have added is you always need to add your own knowledge and intuition into this and pick the ones you like best. (ex: SMU can't cover a spread or come up big in clutch moments to save their life so no matter how many signs point to them, I stay away) For me I know college hoops best. I have tested it with NFL and NBA with some with some success but my sample size is much much smaller so tough to say how it'd play out in the long run.

As a pats fan I saw it pointed to losses for them against the Ravens and Texans which were spot on plays.

Thank you

Happy to contribute to a forum that's helped me immensely over the past few years

Great insight!

Question - for the RLM at what % do you feel like you should look into this game more. For example when 60% of the money is on Team A or 65%, 70%, etc? 

hey red appreciate everything, quick question though. When you base the RLM method does team B have to move a certain amount like a full point, two points, etc. or does it qualify moving only a half point in said direction. Or is it solely on feel and experience from testing. it out overtime? also is there a certain percentage you look for or does it apply at anything over 50 %? thanks

THANKS RED!

Thanks red! This is great stuff!

So just to confirm, tonight for example in the Fresno state At home against Indiana Purdue. 
Line opens at -14.5 Fresno-82% of the money is on Fresno state but the line has gone down to 13.5. This would qualify as RLM? 

What’s a good tool/website to check RLM?

did you read any of what he wrote?

Great question.  It's entirely up to you and based on what you feel comfortable with.  As you start to get into this you can tweak your own parameters.  One year I was over 70% and I only played games that 2-2.5 pts of movement  or more and ideally wanted 70-75% or higher on team A. I also only played about 30-35 games all years. (Last year these types of plays were my money $$$$ Plays which hit around 85% (14-2 or something like that)

Good rule of thumb is AT LEAST 1 point but the more the merrier! And again it all depends how much % is on team A. If its 90% and its only budged a half I'd probably still like it. But again these are all things you can kind of play around with and tweak as you like and as you see what works for you!

As far as what % I look for I try to steer clear of anything under 65% - and I try to wait until about 30 mins to tip to make sure line movement and %s hold true.

Yes this is RLM but it goes against an integral part of my system.  HOME TEAMS ONLY!!  This RLM points towards taking the away IUPUI who is on the road tonight. I really try to steer clear of away teams/ neutral site games and the # of away teams I've bet on using this system I can probably count on one hand

https://www.scoresandodds.com/las-vegas-odds

If using on mobile make sure you set it 'desktop site' in the browser setting 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/

Mods please don't delete links please and thank you!