Posted:
#226
Washington St def applies
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Reds $$$$ Method - Explained
Posted:
#227
Quote Originally Posted by Mohr4ya:
I was looking at UCLA as well but some things I noticed that kept me off. Stanford is 11th in the country in Adj Defense Efficiency. They were significantly better at every defense category than UCLA. The one edge I saw for UCLA was they hit the offensive boards fairly well but on the flip side Stanford doesn't give very many offensive boards up. Stanford shoots the 3 at almost 40% and the weakest part of UCLA Defense, defending the three (ranked #346 in the country). Looking at the stats...Stanford went 8-17 and shot 47% from three. No edge in rebounding for either team. KenPom was pretty accurate. I didn't dig into any trends but just from that it was enough for me to stay away. However.... since I like to take a look back. it looks like UCLA started out as a +2.5 then flipped to a -1.5 favorite early in the day with about 60% of the money on them so I wouldn't call that RLM. From there is looks like they went back to +1 about 15 minutes before tip with the money dropping from 60% down to the 30%. The more I look the more I think this was not RLM. May need an expert to weigh in on this..I am fairly new. Red would you mind taking a look? Anyways that's my 2 cents.
I was looking at UCLA as well but some things I noticed that kept me off. Stanford is 11th in the country in Adj Defense Efficiency. They were significantly better at every defense category than UCLA. The one edge I saw for UCLA was they hit the offensive boards fairly well but on the flip side Stanford doesn't give very many offensive boards up. Stanford shoots the 3 at almost 40% and the weakest part of UCLA Defense, defending the three (ranked #346 in the country). Looking at the stats...Stanford went 8-17 and shot 47% from three. No edge in rebounding for either team. KenPom was pretty accurate. I didn't dig into any trends but just from that it was enough for me to stay away. However.... since I like to take a look back. it looks like UCLA started out as a +2.5 then flipped to a -1.5 favorite early in the day with about 60% of the money on them so I wouldn't call that RLM. From there is looks like they went back to +1 about 15 minutes before tip with the money dropping from 60% down to the 30%. The more I look the more I think this was not RLM. May need an expert to weigh in on this..I am fairly new. Red would you mind taking a look? Anyways that's my 2 cents.
I looked yesterday and the ones I saw were Alabama, Tennessee Chattanooga & Fairleigh Dickinson.
From what you're describing UCLA doesnt seem like RLM, seems like normal line movement for the most part with a last minute swing.
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Posted:
#231
Quote Originally Posted by redtear2989:
rookie player here. Is there a certain amount of rlm you look for to qualify for taking the home dog? TY.
Quote Originally Posted by VHIII:
Action app shows almost 70 percent of the dollars on Washington st. Not sure they apply.
Home dog rlm is an absolute cash cow, if you played those and only those you'd hit at an insane %Action app shows almost 70 percent of the dollars on Washington st. Not sure they apply.
0
Posted:
#234
Quote Originally Posted by VietLuck:
What if the dog is at home and the public is in the favor side.... but spread moves up instead of down?
What if the dog is at home and the public is in the favor side.... but spread moves up instead of down?
That's just expected line movement. What you're looking for is when the books refuse to move a line (or move it in the opposite direction) despite heavy public buying activity--and hence, theoretically, liability for the books--on one side of the action.
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Posted:
#236
Quote Originally Posted by brownidentity:
Sorry to ask this, I’m a rookie so please understand. Where exactly on vegasinsider and oddsportal you can see RLM and percentages. I can’t find them on the websites. If you can post exact links I would appreciate it. Thanks
Sorry to ask this, I’m a rookie so please understand. Where exactly on vegasinsider and oddsportal you can see RLM and percentages. I can’t find them on the websites. If you can post exact links I would appreciate it. Thanks
If you post exact links on here, they almost always are removed. For vegasinsider, go to their main webpage then click on NCAA BK. When that page loads, click Matchups. It will be on a small row near the top of the page. That will take you to the page you want
No idea about oddsportal
0
Posted:
#239
Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:
Be careful with this system. Been there done it. Can work for a while, and turn on a dime.
Be careful with this system. Been there done it. Can work for a while, and turn on a dime.
Always good to exercise caution with any system. Are you aware of any other systems that people have posted in the Covers Forum? I found learing Red's super interesting and would like to learn more.
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Posted:
#241
Quote Originally Posted by CCO687:
Hey Red- you ever going to have time to make your own plays again :). I ask selfishly because you are one of the best at selection and win rate. I remember you finishing a season around 68%!!!!! Thanks for all you do !
I may, I would never want to pick plays just to pick them and hope they hit, I take a lot of pride in my picks so if I don't have the proper amount of time to invest I dont want to waste peoples time/money. This system isn't something you follow blindly theres a huge human element to it and it requires a decent bit of research. And it's much harder to find the time since my new promotion (WOOHOO!) at work.
Hey Red- you ever going to have time to make your own plays again :). I ask selfishly because you are one of the best at selection and win rate. I remember you finishing a season around 68%!!!!! Thanks for all you do !
Ionfident I use these (MODS PLEASE DONT REMOVE!) https://www.scoresandodds.com/las-vegas-odds https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/ https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/public-betting
Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:
Be careful with this system. Been there done it. Can work for a while, and turn on a dime.
I can say I have never had anything even close to a losing season since employing this method, but maybe some of us are more gifted than others ;) and as stated above there's a huge human element. The system gives you a set of games to look at it, its on you to widdle it down a 1-3 good ones
Be careful with this system. Been there done it. Can work for a while, and turn on a dime.
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