One thing I always do, I think i mentioned this in my write up but maybe I didnt, either way I'm too lazy and tired to check lol but anywho.. I always try to wait as late as possible to pick a game - If you ever noticed a lot of my picks were pretty close to tip off; the intention wasn't to keep everyone in suspense but rather to make sure the lines and %s help up. Obviously this is tough to do when you have work kids family etc but try not place any wagers outside of an hour before tip off.
@Nametaken - It doesn't have to be a homedog, I just prefer them when the right oppurtunity presents itself
0
One thing I always do, I think i mentioned this in my write up but maybe I didnt, either way I'm too lazy and tired to check lol but anywho.. I always try to wait as late as possible to pick a game - If you ever noticed a lot of my picks were pretty close to tip off; the intention wasn't to keep everyone in suspense but rather to make sure the lines and %s help up. Obviously this is tough to do when you have work kids family etc but try not place any wagers outside of an hour before tip off.
@Nametaken - It doesn't have to be a homedog, I just prefer them when the right oppurtunity presents itself
Good info Red. I have been able to track these lines close throughout the day since I have been on a long break from work. I go back tomorrow and it may not be as easy.
I think what I may try to do is take a quick look in the morning for any RLM. Set an alarm for 30 minutes out before tip and check back to see if the RLM and % has held. Or maybe I just play the weekend games. I am starting to see how handicapping can become a full time gig and I have barley scratched the surface.
Cheers!
0
Good info Red. I have been able to track these lines close throughout the day since I have been on a long break from work. I go back tomorrow and it may not be as easy.
I think what I may try to do is take a quick look in the morning for any RLM. Set an alarm for 30 minutes out before tip and check back to see if the RLM and % has held. Or maybe I just play the weekend games. I am starting to see how handicapping can become a full time gig and I have barley scratched the surface.
Yea it definitely requires a lot time of to do it right. I usually like to check at around noon, 3 and then 5-6. Again you wanna make sure everything has stayed consistent. I'll just hop into the bathroom at work, or while I'm eating lunch and take 3-4 minutes to quickly scan games and make a note of what fits/continue to fit through out the day
2
Yea it definitely requires a lot time of to do it right. I usually like to check at around noon, 3 and then 5-6. Again you wanna make sure everything has stayed consistent. I'll just hop into the bathroom at work, or while I'm eating lunch and take 3-4 minutes to quickly scan games and make a note of what fits/continue to fit through out the day
One thing I always do, I think i mentioned this in my write up but maybe I didnt, either way I'm too lazy and tired to check lol but anywho.. I always try to wait as late as possible to pick a game - If you ever noticed a lot of my picks were pretty close to tip off; the intention wasn't to keep everyone in suspense but rather to make sure the lines and %s help up. Obviously this is tough to do when you have work kids family etc but try not place any wagers outside of an hour before tip off. @Nametaken - It doesn't have to be a homedog, I just prefer them when the right oppurtunity presents itself
Hey Red...so I took Northridge yesterday around 11 AM when they moved from -6 to -7 despite being under 30% on my tracking sites of choice. Later the % evened out and the line went up to -8.5. So in the end it was 50/50 but a 2.5 point move. I guess you're taking a chance banging it a bit early but I saw a number and price I liked (was -101) and hit it. Maybe at some point if you're following the line and think you have a good read do you think it's cool to hit it a bit earlier if you feel it's the right opportunity even if a few hours before game time? I also played Air Force who won by almost 50.
Also been tracking various situations since you posted this and still a minute sample size, but I've noticed that this strategy per your suggestion seems to be the soundest with home teams. Plays I would have bet or did bet so far broke down like this (CFB/CFB/NBA/NFL):
Road: 5-4 Neutral: 3-2 Home: 10-2
Again size is so small it's really not even a sample but still does seem prudent to lean heavily to home teams with this (I still make my own plays based on capping but this is a nice addition).
3
Quote Originally Posted by redtear2989:
One thing I always do, I think i mentioned this in my write up but maybe I didnt, either way I'm too lazy and tired to check lol but anywho.. I always try to wait as late as possible to pick a game - If you ever noticed a lot of my picks were pretty close to tip off; the intention wasn't to keep everyone in suspense but rather to make sure the lines and %s help up. Obviously this is tough to do when you have work kids family etc but try not place any wagers outside of an hour before tip off. @Nametaken - It doesn't have to be a homedog, I just prefer them when the right oppurtunity presents itself
Hey Red...so I took Northridge yesterday around 11 AM when they moved from -6 to -7 despite being under 30% on my tracking sites of choice. Later the % evened out and the line went up to -8.5. So in the end it was 50/50 but a 2.5 point move. I guess you're taking a chance banging it a bit early but I saw a number and price I liked (was -101) and hit it. Maybe at some point if you're following the line and think you have a good read do you think it's cool to hit it a bit earlier if you feel it's the right opportunity even if a few hours before game time? I also played Air Force who won by almost 50.
Also been tracking various situations since you posted this and still a minute sample size, but I've noticed that this strategy per your suggestion seems to be the soundest with home teams. Plays I would have bet or did bet so far broke down like this (CFB/CFB/NBA/NFL):
Road: 5-4 Neutral: 3-2 Home: 10-2
Again size is so small it's really not even a sample but still does seem prudent to lean heavily to home teams with this (I still make my own plays based on capping but this is a nice addition).
Technically yes. Tho while the %s have been consistent the line movement has been a bit erratic. This is a great example where you can tighten or widen your range to be more liberal and take plays like this or more you can be conservative and selective with your plays. While it technically fits its only a half point with only like 65% on team A.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LAramsTILLiDIE0:
does nevada maybe fit?
Technically yes. Tho while the %s have been consistent the line movement has been a bit erratic. This is a great example where you can tighten or widen your range to be more liberal and take plays like this or more you can be conservative and selective with your plays. While it technically fits its only a half point with only like 65% on team A.
I checked on all the teams you mentioned and only Tennessee State has better strength of schedule and RIP than its opponent. It's the only team I would feel confident putting a good chunk of money on. I hate putting money on teams like Chicago State that are the bottom of the barrel in stats
0
I checked on all the teams you mentioned and only Tennessee State has better strength of schedule and RIP than its opponent. It's the only team I would feel confident putting a good chunk of money on. I hate putting money on teams like Chicago State that are the bottom of the barrel in stats
UNC Wilmington - like the homecourt advantage (105th) and the %s have remained consistent- Dont like the small amount of movement and the movement has also been a little up and down, only slightly though.
Coastal Carolina - Like their homecourt advantage (104th) - What I love is the Line movement and Consistency in everything - I wish the % was higher on Georgia Southern other than that theres nothing I dont like (also theres conflicting %s between scoresandodds and actionnetwork, not sure which is more reliable..)
Hoftrsa - Technically fits but with a whopping 44% on them its more than I personally care to play - also HATE their home court advantage, one of the worst in college hoops 330th.
Tennesse St - LOVE the movment and %s, everything has remained steady and consistent - Dont like there come court advantage @ 220th. (also conflicting %s)
These teams techincally have RLM in the sense the line hasn't moved which there being more on the other team but havent done any further research due like to lack of movement. Colgate, Idaho, Southern Utah, Chicago St, Duquesne
Do with this what you will. BOL everyone!
1
I see these still fit
UNC Wilmington - like the homecourt advantage (105th) and the %s have remained consistent- Dont like the small amount of movement and the movement has also been a little up and down, only slightly though.
Coastal Carolina - Like their homecourt advantage (104th) - What I love is the Line movement and Consistency in everything - I wish the % was higher on Georgia Southern other than that theres nothing I dont like (also theres conflicting %s between scoresandodds and actionnetwork, not sure which is more reliable..)
Hoftrsa - Technically fits but with a whopping 44% on them its more than I personally care to play - also HATE their home court advantage, one of the worst in college hoops 330th.
Tennesse St - LOVE the movment and %s, everything has remained steady and consistent - Dont like there come court advantage @ 220th. (also conflicting %s)
These teams techincally have RLM in the sense the line hasn't moved which there being more on the other team but havent done any further research due like to lack of movement. Colgate, Idaho, Southern Utah, Chicago St, Duquesne
Taking a first look at today, and at first glance on VI Iona seems like a point of LM from open with 87% tickets in the reverse. But, looking at the actual trends, it looks like the move was right at open. So, is this a false signal/fade?
0
Taking a first look at today, and at first glance on VI Iona seems like a point of LM from open with 87% tickets in the reverse. But, looking at the actual trends, it looks like the move was right at open. So, is this a false signal/fade?
Only two that I see that match today so far: Marist and Sienna. Is that right?
Marist is one the worst teams in college basketball. Dont know about putting money on them. You seen what happened yesterday to Hosfra another bottom of the barrel team. Sienna is pretty much matched evenly with Quionnapac. Hard pick in that one
0
Quote Originally Posted by NameTaken:
Only two that I see that match today so far: Marist and Sienna. Is that right?
Marist is one the worst teams in college basketball. Dont know about putting money on them. You seen what happened yesterday to Hosfra another bottom of the barrel team. Sienna is pretty much matched evenly with Quionnapac. Hard pick in that one
So far it looks like Siena and Seton Hall if the numbers hold up. Slight movement on Marist but not strong enough to make it a play for me at this point.
0
So far it looks like Siena and Seton Hall if the numbers hold up. Slight movement on Marist but not strong enough to make it a play for me at this point.
So far it looks like Siena and Seton Hall if the numbers hold up. Slight movement on Marist but not strong enough to make it a play for me at this point.
I’m not clear about Seton Hall. If you look at the trends, the line movement happened with heavy action on that side. That would be PLM, right? Or does the system still hold?
0
Quote Originally Posted by tdibs:
So far it looks like Siena and Seton Hall if the numbers hold up. Slight movement on Marist but not strong enough to make it a play for me at this point.
I’m not clear about Seton Hall. If you look at the trends, the line movement happened with heavy action on that side. That would be PLM, right? Or does the system still hold?
I'm showing line moved from -5 to -6.5 with only 34% of the bets on them according to scores and odds site. I just checked sports insights and it looks like the % is reversed. I'll have to keep an eye on it
0
I'm showing line moved from -5 to -6.5 with only 34% of the bets on them according to scores and odds site. I just checked sports insights and it looks like the % is reversed. I'll have to keep an eye on it
Hot Forum Topics
