NCAAB picks, Tuesday, November 22, 2011 -- UCLA vs. Kansas

Yesterday: 2-1, +2.40 units
YTD: 6-4, +3.05 units

1. Long Beach State -9 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
2. Michigan +6.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2
3. Missouri -2.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
4. Kansas -8 (-110), 3.3 to win 3

UCLA should be at least +12 or so to Kansas if you ask me. UCLA has no one -- no one -- who will be able to remotely stay close to guarding Robinson. Stover will probably get the assignment, and he's a pretty good defender, but he doesn't have the lateral quickness likely to stay in front of Robinson (he will have the length to alter shots though). Maybe Reeves will get some time on Robinson as well. Reeves absolutely falls to sleep for stretches on defense although he did a good job last year shutting down Derrick Williams for Arizona when he played him straight up.

UCLA's guard play is soooooo bad... hell, basically their guard play and wing play is just ridiculously bad. I expect Tyshawn Taylor will be able to run circles around Zeke Jones and Jerime Anderson. UCLA has one good shooting half and now any casual fan is just gonna see that they blew out Chaminade and start thinking that they have a chance against Kansas. I will be very, very surprised if UCLA covers this number and absolutely floored if they win SU -- in fact, a SU win would be a huge upset IMO (as you can see by my thinking this line should be closer to 12.)  UCLA will not get nearly as many open looks tonight as they did last night. This will be the first real, legitimately talented team UCLA plays. This could be really bad if it gets out of hand early and people start pouting (looking at you Reeves and Jerime Anderson). UCLA played Kansas really tough in Phog Allen last year, although that was because of a career performance by Tyler Honeycutt where he dropped 30 or so.... the rest of the team looked absolutely overmatched during that game, no one wanted to shoot or had confidence doing so.

Sidenote: would not at all be surprised to see Michigan beat Duke SU.  Has Duke seen an effective zone this year? How about a 1-3-1 zone that is nearly impossible to prepare for on short notice? Beilein teams ALWAYS have one huge pre-season upset... I think Michigan nails Duke on this one.

Good luck to everyone tonight

actually like UCLA against KU..... 

Really? Cause I'm 2-0 in their three games so far and even called them losing SU to MTSU even though I didn't play that game... hard to be better than perfect at this point in the season?  If you've stalked my threads in prior years like you have the last year or so, you'd know I am far above .500 (probably much closer to 60%) on UCLA games.

But what do I know about UCLA.... definitely not more than an Arizona guy does?!

Have fun with Rich Rodriguez, ask Michigan fans how much they like him.

Ignore Zonacat lol, he's garbage.

bol Kap!  

GL Bro

I've seen enough games from UCLA tmpeus to know that they should be catching DD against a team like Kansas and the talent that they have.

Hey ZonaCats, where are you picks for your team with Sean Miller at the helm? I went through your posting history but I did not see any?

Who's "Kapono"?

Kap, great job as always. Your CBB plays have been real solid (and profitable!) over the few years I have been following. Just wondering if you could elaborate on LBS, as Boise is a pretty solid shooting squad and though I don't think they win outright, 9.5 seems like a lot.

Thanks for the kind words, rangersmets.

I like LB State for a few reasons -- the strength of schedule in terms of competition could not be more different. LB State has played Idaho, Pittsburgh, and San Diego State (with the Pitt and SD State games coming on the road) while Boise has played the mighty Colorado Christian team (never even knew that school existed, lol), Utah, and CSUN. Long Beach State is far, far better than any of those schools. This will also be Boise's first road game and LB State first real quality opponent at home. LB State actually has pretty solid fan support and this should be a tough arena for Boise to have their first game in. To go into Pitt and win that game is very impressive to me for LB State... tough to win two road games against Pitt and SD State, a split is a great outcome for them.

I like the under in the KU UCLA game.  Have a feeling its going to be a knock down drag out game in the 60's.  Just dont think either team has consistent perimeter scoring yet and I think UCLA will keep it close.  KU just doesnt have the ability to blow teams out this year.  Not nearly as efficient in their half court offense as they usually are.

With you on Michigan Kap.

Was leaning the other way on your other 3 though.

I was gonna ask what you thought about your boys tonight but post #1 answered that one for me.

Still thinking about pulling the trigger on that kansas play. Not the UCLA people are used to this year. What do you think about them stepping up their game though with it be primetime ESPN? That's about the only thing holding me off.

bol KAP

He's not allowed to walk the streets around these parts. Him and Matt Millen took the same cab out of this town to never return...