Posted:
#151
Quote Originally Posted by vincent:
have a safe trip and get that
have a safe trip and get that
I haven't had a bad trip yet
Thanks manNCAA Tourney Stat Sheet
Posted:
#153
Quote Originally Posted by kck05a:
Kindergarten,
I have been using KenPom for a couple years now. I actually have a spreadsheet very similar to what it is that you produced for everybody. Two suggestion I might add:
1) Include SOS so you can know the degree of importance behind the efficiency #s (Ex: Florida and UCSB, while UCSB might have similar numbers that is a result of playing worse competition)
It just helps get a better orientation and what the numbers truly mean
2) The second stat I am using and only during tournament time is the Effective Age for each team. Experience plays a HUGE role come this time a year. I am going to have a hard time betting a team with a much younger team than who they are playing.
Just a couple things to think about. I was glad to see somebody else is a Kenpom believer, it's time a lot of those outdated stats are thrown out. Good luck to you though!
I have every Kenpom sheet, for every team conference and regular season in my "Trapper Keeper" along with a lot of other info.
Love the Kenpom site
SOS is located on the end of the spreadsheet though. I think you might have missed that. It's right by pace of play.
and will be there aug 25-29 this yr 
Posted:
#155
Quote Originally Posted by kindergartencapper:
First half plays- I found 12 games that are at 60 or lower for the First Half. Seemed kind of low, so I went back and looked at the past year.
Last year 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 20 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 22 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
Just found it semi-interesting as I always love betting First Half plays during the tourney
First half plays- I found 12 games that are at 60 or lower for the First Half. Seemed kind of low, so I went back and looked at the past year.
Last year 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 20 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 22 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
Just found it semi-interesting as I always love betting First Half plays during the tourney
Kinder,
I saw this post tonight after the 7pm games tipped off. so i took all the overs first halves on games at 60 or under.
North Dakota/.Air Force 57.5
Jacksonville/.East Carolina 59.5
Fairfield/.Colorado State 59
Murray State/.Missouri St 58
UAB/.Clemson 55.5
4-1 to start.Like I said no idea how the 7pm games did though.
Posted:
#157
Quote Originally Posted by BonziWells:
Kinder,
I saw this post tonight after the 7pm games tipped off. so i took all the overs first halves on games at 60 or under.
North Dakota/.Air Force 57.5
Jacksonville/.East Carolina 59.5
Fairfield/.Colorado State 59
Murray State/.Missouri St 58
UAB/.Clemson 55.5
4-1 to start.Like I said no idea how the 7pm games did though.
Kinder,
I saw this post tonight after the 7pm games tipped off. so i took all the overs first halves on games at 60 or under.
North Dakota/.Air Force 57.5
Jacksonville/.East Carolina 59.5
Fairfield/.Colorado State 59
Murray State/.Missouri St 58
UAB/.Clemson 55.5
4-1 to start.Like I said no idea how the 7pm games did though.
Nice....I wasn't even talking about the Not Invited Tournament or the other ones.
Congrats
Posted:
#159
Quote Originally Posted by kck05a:
Kindergarten,
I have been using KenPom for a couple years now. I actually have a spreadsheet very similar to what it is that you produced for everybody. Two suggestion I might add:
1) Include SOS so you can know the degree of importance behind the efficiency #s (Ex: Florida and UCSB, while UCSB might have similar numbers that is a result of playing worse competition)
It just helps get a better orientation and what the numbers truly mean
2) The second stat I am using and only during tournament time is the Effective Age for each team. Experience plays a HUGE role come this time a year. I am going to have a hard time betting a team with a much younger team than who they are playing.
Just a couple things to think about. I was glad to see somebody else is a Kenpom believer, it's time a lot of those outdated stats are thrown out. Good luck to you though!
Also I just looked back at last year and wanted to share this.
Experience----out of the Top 10, one of those made the Sweet 16---Cornell
Least Experience team----Kentucky.
I agree it has some to do with it...but not as much sometimes as just raw talent and basketball smarts.
Posted:
#160
Sweet 16 Breakdown Last year:
4 of the Top 10 Off Eff. Teams made it
0 of the Bottom 10 Off. Eff. Teams made it
4 of the Top 10 Def. Eff Teams made it
1 of the Bottom 10 Def. Eff Teams made it
4 of the Top 10 Fastest Paced teams made it
2 of the Bottom 10 Slowest Paced teams made it
2 of the Top 10 FT% Teams made it
0 of the Bottom 10 FT% made it
4 of the Top 10 FG% teams made it(#1,2,3 all made it)
0 of the Bottom 10 FG% teams made it
2 of the Top 10 Def. FG% made it
0 of the Bottom 10 Def. FG% made it
2 of the Top 10 least off Turnovers made it
1 of the Bottom 10 least off. turnovers made it
1 of the Top 10 Experienced teams made it
1 of the Bottom 10 Experienced teams made it(The least KY)
6 of the Top 10 Tallest Teams made it
0 of the Top 10 Shortest Teams made it.
Just something to chew on
4 of the Top 10 Off Eff. Teams made it
0 of the Bottom 10 Off. Eff. Teams made it
4 of the Top 10 Def. Eff Teams made it
1 of the Bottom 10 Def. Eff Teams made it
4 of the Top 10 Fastest Paced teams made it
2 of the Bottom 10 Slowest Paced teams made it
2 of the Top 10 FT% Teams made it
0 of the Bottom 10 FT% made it
4 of the Top 10 FG% teams made it(#1,2,3 all made it)
0 of the Bottom 10 FG% teams made it
2 of the Top 10 Def. FG% made it
0 of the Bottom 10 Def. FG% made it
2 of the Top 10 least off Turnovers made it
1 of the Bottom 10 least off. turnovers made it
1 of the Top 10 Experienced teams made it
1 of the Bottom 10 Experienced teams made it(The least KY)
6 of the Top 10 Tallest Teams made it
0 of the Top 10 Shortest Teams made it.
Just something to chew on
Posted:
#164
Quote Originally Posted by kindergartencapper:
First half plays- I found 12 games that are at 60 or lower for the First Half. Seemed kind of low, so I went back and looked at the past year.
Last year 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 20 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 22 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
Just found it semi-interesting as I always love betting First Half plays during the tourney
First half plays- I found 12 games that are at 60 or lower for the First Half. Seemed kind of low, so I went back and looked at the past year.
Last year 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 25 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 20 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
The year before 22 out of 32 games hit 60 or went over 60.
Just found it semi-interesting as I always love betting First Half plays during the tourney
First of all, congratulations on providing members on this site with useful information.
Since this information was handy for me, I wanted to contribute the distribution of 1H wagers for last years ROUND 1 tournament games as follows:
Line Over Under
50-54.5 0 1
55-59.5 5 1
60-64.5 4 5
65-69.5 5 7
70+ 3 0 1 Push
Total 17 14 1
I have a comment on these results. Statistically, there is nothing that stands out overall, except maybe the highest numbers 70+ tended to go over, as well as the 55 - 59.50 grouping. Interestingly, one game the pros wagered heavily on last year was under 53 1H in the Wisconsin-Wofford matchup. As you can see from the chart, the pros won this one easily, as the total fell on 46. To randomly wager "over" on all game totals under 60 would normally be suicidal, last year you would have been 5-2. I'll take that anytime.
BOL in you wagers,
Shirley
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