Posted:
#51
well put...
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Look in the Mirror - You are the Public
Posted:
#52
Once again... why does it matter? What the public does or doesn't do is totally irrelevant to clean games. Or do you think basketballs talk on the rack about what % is on a given side? If you want to win more...don't care about those percentages. Focus on the math and stick with it. If you focus on what others do and allow emotion into your decisions your level of success will decrease.
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Posted:
#53
good Post Sulfur...
We all play the role of public, and sometimes we are the sharps...
In order to truly make sharp plays everyday, IMO, YOU MUST WATCHED THE TEAMS YOU ARE WAGERING ON. This is very hard to do as not all games are on TV obviously and there are so many...I was lucky enough to watch both Kstate and SOMiss play there last 3 games, so in last nights tilt i had a clear SHARP advantage over the book, and thus my writeup was spot on. This happens semi frequently but not everyday or even every other day. When i cap a game with teams i have not seen with my own eyes, but I know thier stats inside and out ,and have a "feel" for them, that is a semi public play, i know it, you know it...
Stats can certainly give you a feel, but watching a game, and having the abilitly to decipher what you have seen is something else entirely. This is what seperates the sharp and the public action...That is why i feel sometimes i am a sharp and sometimes i am the public...
Sharps WATCH ALL the games and teams they wager on, they don't just pour over stats and look for an advantage.
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Posted:
#54
And sulfurboy...did you really say that your age & experience have no bearing on whether or not you can win?
First of all chess last time I looked was a game that is 100% skill. Comparing chess to sports gambling is like comparing Mercury and Jupiter in size.
Age and experience is 99 percent of the time a plus in life. Do you think Lebron is better now than in his rookie season? Do you think Kobe is better now than in his rookie season? Think Tiger is better now than he was in 97? Any why are they better now? maturity and experience might have something to do with it?
As years progress you get wiser and more disciplined. And gambling is something that age and experience are major pluses. If you think otherwise you might be in for a rude awakening
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Posted:
#55
I don't mean to say you can't find winners pouring over stats...you absolutely can, but the books have all this same info...
In order to be sharp and beat them, in the long run, you must possess something which they don't have...
Your own unique, intellectual insight and perspective, that can only be gained from watching teams play...
And to be even more honest, only about 25% of you have the ability to do that even after watching teams play...
I have lurked on this sight for 4+ years and i can honestly say there are maybe a handful of guys on here i have noticed to be able to do this. And it's not some of the peoplt you would think...Some of these guys don't possess this skill and they know it, but they have built up a following and conitinue to just "pick" away...
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Posted:
#56
Vanshades, The funny thing about probability is we can have different values attached to things which results in a different result. Which is why mathematically you will see different interpretations of the data.
Sharp money to me are people who have some sort of inside insight. Maybe a star player has the shits. Maybe a star player just broke up with his girlfriend...etc. Things that would move my mathematical model away from a given line and giving me an advantage over that said line. Those are things I look for and the type of info I look for on here and the web.
All of the other opinions are just educated guesses based on mathematical formula. No different from my own.
Also you need to keep in mind that books have different goals from players. We as players are searching for the true odds. Books are formulating odds based on action theory and public opinion. Sometimes they match...often times they don't.
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Posted:
#57
Sparty...Inside information, isn't really a sharp play to me, it might be a "wise" play but not sharp...
Sharp betting is finding a line that vegas either has flat out blown (which does happen), A line they have thier hands "tied" on, for whatever reason...or CLEARLY seeing a MAJOR advantage in the game for one side, that may not be obvious to anyone else.
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Posted:
#59
"It is tough, almost impossible to play multiple games every day and win money." -jennado
You need to find a new hobby if thats the case for you. Im not saying by any means that i win money EVERY day, but I do make profits consistantly. And yes I usually play multiple games on a day with a normal sized card.
buy $BTC
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by sulfurboy:
Are you fucking kidding me?
First off don't even act like you know me, don't belittle me into some assumed category. I pay my way through school, pay my bills, my rent, my car, my insurance, groceries and everything. I balance capping and a full-time job and 18 hours of school a semister. So no, I'm not like every other 'cool' college guy and living the 'crazy' life. I've been on my own since I was 17 and instead of settling into a shithole life of bagging groceries I've worked my ass off to have a life for myself. So to hell with your brazen and altogther irresponsible assumptions about me the 'omg like crazy college kid'.
And this 'you don't have the life experiences'/better than though bullshit is just as irresponsible. I know two 8 year olds I used to play with at the chess club who could whip my ass day in and day out. My age and experience had no bearing on whether or not I could win.
This good ole' boy we been around longer logic is failing left and right. If you need proof of this just look to poker and how it is being dominated by the younger generation. My generation in capping I believe will be the first one to come close to cracking the bank, with the sheer amount of information shared on the internet, I can know more about a team in one day than you could know about them in a lifetime.
If you want to come at me with a valid, logical arguement then so be it, but this straw man bullshit is irresponsable and down right rude.
Don't make the assumption that since I'm a college kid I must be crazy and will blow all my money and I won't make the assumption that your old ass should move on to bingo.
Sul - Dont take these things that I wrote personally (unless they are true). Experience matters in lots of things, and sports gambling is no exception. And, dont compare the methodology of winning at chess & poker to sports gambling - its not the same. It's not even close. It's good to have great confidence in your own skills, but sports gambling is betting on the skills (and predictable results) of others.
I am proud of you for all the success that you are having - paying your own way, etc. - that is the way that all of us old guys did it too. But, that is what life is all about. You are SUPPOSED to do that.
Please dont think that your "generation" will be the first to come close to cracking the bank. You have no idea! Enjoy your 62% run in college hoops. You are hot. I actually follow some of your picks too. (I just wish that I would follow the 3 that win each night, not the 2 losers.) But, back to my original premise, I dont think that I (or most people here) can win money on a consistent basis betting lots of games every night.
One last thing, I hope you can save this post somewhere - and then re-read it in about 15 years - then you'll probably have a better appreciation for the actual merits of the information. You see, most of us old guys were you at one time. We lived the dream too. We were smarter than the bookies too. We were smarter than our friends too. We went to bars drinking, and became more interested in the game on the TV in the corner than our friends too. You see, we have done all the things you are doing too. And, we collected from the man too.
Enjoy the run - it wont last for multiple seasons, I dont care how much info you get. If this was all about math & statistics, it would be easy!
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by Eddy_Winslow:
"It is tough, almost impossible to play multiple games every day and win money." -jennado
You need to find a new hobby if thats the case for you. Im not saying by any means that i win money EVERY day, but I do make profits consistantly. And yes I usually play multiple games on a day with a normal sized card.
Eddy - thanks for posting, but without any "posted" games or record, it is difficult to give credibility to your comments.
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Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by jennado:
Very true jennado. Also Im not one of those ppl who is now going to say "give me your email, I'll send you my statement." Obviously I could care less wheather someone on a forum believes me or not. Great thread. You make some very good points.
Eddy - thanks for posting, but without any "posted" games or record, it is difficult to give credibility to your comments.
buy $BTC
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
Jennado, If its not about math and statistics...what is it about then? 
You are mis-quoting me - I said, "If this was all about math & statistics, it would be easy!" The point being, is that there are other factors besides math & stats. Situational spots, back to back road games, hostile environments, rivalry games, heart-breaking losses, look-ahead games, etc.
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Posted:
#66
Vanshades, Don't think your understanding my math point. I will try to make it more understanding. Do you own a playstation 2 or 3? Game Cube? etc.
Put in a basketball game or football game. Pick 2 teams.. come up with the spread that vegas might set for that game in real life. Simulate 100 games and tell me what you see. You should see a wide variety of win margains. 1 game a team might win my 20 and the next they might lose by 20.
Take that logic and implement it to what I was saying about vegas lines. Vegas could set the line appropriately...but because of probability it could appear to be way off because the games we bet on are the best of 1 and not out of 100. Do you understand what I am saying now?
It is possible they made a mistake. But you can't use 1 event as a basis to say that. They would need to play at least 100 times with all similar results before you could say they made a mistake.
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Posted:
#70
Sparty - Ok - you could assign a value to all the factors that I mentioned, and run a calculation. The trick is to have enough sample to construct a meaningful value for each of the events. But, to Joe the Gambler, and me (at this stage of life), the effort to have an all encomposing calculation is nearly impossible.
So, most Joe the Gamblers, use the basic stats that are listed on Covers, or Ken Pom's site and make an analysis using those 10 - 15 factors. Then, they go with a "gut" feel for the things like I mentioned, plus their own impression of the last game that a particular team played. I see statements all the time like, "since they got killed last time, they will be fired up this time..." "Or, Team A got lucky to be team C, so Team A isn't very good, and will get crushed tonight...."
I am a math guy. I owned a company that did statistical analysis. So, I get all that. I think that is why my brain told me that I would be a good handicapper - but, it hasnt always worked out too well using only those statistical comparisons.
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Posted:
#71
Sparty i understood you completely...That's the problem with cappers who rely too much on math...Sometimes you can't see the forest through the trees...That is in no way an insult, but math can blind you. Like Jennado said, it is one tool not the ONLY tool...Let me give you perspective on why i say the books definetly put out bad lines...
Vegas is bound to the math when setting thier lines, yes they may play with it a little, but it is almost always within 3-5 points of the math...
Only when we as Cappers who use our intellect and math together do we gain an advantage...
Example, last night K state is laying -5 to So. Miss...From a math perspective, it is not a bad line. However, to a capper with intellect and insight into the dynamic of both these teams, it is a horrible line ...
Kstate runs 10 deep, all getting Double Digit minutes. So. Miss runs 7 deep at best, and that is a stretch...Athletically, if you have seen these teams play, it is obvious K State has a decisive adavantage at EVERY position on the floor. So. Miss runs a 4 guard offense with no inside presence, playing a team that can defend the perimeter. Kstate also owns the advantage inside...How is a less athletic, shallow team, playing in essentially thier opponants own backyard going to keep this a 2 possession game? Then you take into consider the motivation factor on the side of K State, after three heartbreaking losses to superior competition than So. Miss...
From a math perspective you see an OK line...from a educated cappers perspective, who knows both teams inside out, how they matchup and thier repective motivational factors you have a a bad line that can be exploited...
Having TRUE insight into a game, so clearly that you can see the outcome before it's happens, outwieghs any math models known to man...Again these sharp plays don't happen everyday or week for that matter. For an informed capper, not bound by math, your chances for finding bad lines and exploiting them goes up...
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