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Look in the Mirror - You are the Public

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Posted: #1
It always cracks me up around this forum when everyone says, "this is a public play" or the "public" is all over this game"  Who is this "PUBLIC" that you write about?    
 
Fellows - you ARE the public!!
 
Do you think that Joe the Gambler just walks in off the street and makes a play one day?  Dont you think that Joe the Gambler does the same research you guys do?  Dont you think that Joe the Gambler looks at the same statistics, watches the same games, and thinks the same thing that you do.  Don't you think Joe the Gambler is thinking "Vegas is trying to trap me" the way that you do.  Don't you think Joe the Gambler tries to rationalize the stats and make a case for a particular play just like you do??  Don't you think Joe the Gambler is on this forum looking for a magic pick like you are?  Don't you think Joe the Gambler is calling the touts and paying for picks like you are thinking you should? 
 
Based upon the info that I read on this forum everyday (sometimes it is purely for the comical relief), there are about 20 guys that seem to have an understanding of interpreting some of what the numbers mean.  Everyone else is just guessing....really - that is all you are doing.  This forum is filled with copycat posters, who try to identify those that are picking winning games.  And, when they see a poster gain some short term success, they follow along, and post the game as their own, & comment that they "really like that game too." 
 
Then, the part that kills me is all the HATE on the board when one of these guys struggles for a few days.  EXAMPLE - guy gets "hot" and makes some winning picks for a few days...then someone decides to "tail" and the first day that Joe the Gambler "tails", the picks dont work out.  Then, Joe the Gambler posts threads about this guy sucks!, this guy cost me money! how could this guy pick them?   STOP TAILING GUYS IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE.  THEN IF YOU DO LOSE, DONT HATE ON THE GUY IN HIS THREADS!!!  It is tough, almost impossible to play multiple games every day and win money.  Don't HATE on these brothers that are bold & courageous enough to post to their plays, and their insight on the games. 
 
So, please remember Joe the Gambler is YOU.  You are the PUBLIC.  When you want to see who the PUBLIC is playing, look in the mirror, and ask yourself!
 
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Posted: #2
I kind of like Bob the Gambler....but that's digressing.
 
Good ass chewing jenn....but i don't think it gets through to the folks that need to read it.
 
 
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Posted: #3
Perfectly said!! Couldn't said it better myself. 



 
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Posted: #4
Couldn't agree more 
 
....btw, I'm still smarting from the end of that SF game last night
 
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Posted: #5
Well said Jenn     
 
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Posted: #6
looking in the mirror and seeing...i need a friggin' hair cut!!



 
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Posted: #7
almost impossible to play multiple games every day and win money
 
Why do you think that?  With the ability to play games at essentially no juice these days, I think it's entirely possible to do this.  Sadly, it is not possible for me to do this in college basketball because I suck; but, I beat up the baseball and CFB boards pretty good year in and year out (2007 CFB excluded ) and do so betting "way too many" games.
 
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Posted: #8
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

almost impossible to play multiple games every day and win money
 
Why do you think that?  With the ability to play games at essentially no juice these days, I think it's entirely possible to do this.  Sadly, it is not possible for me to do this in college basketball because I suck; but, I beat up the baseball and CFB boards pretty good year in and year out (2007 CFB excluded ) and do so betting "way too many" games.

 

I feel this way for several reasons:

1) Juice - when you say "play at essentially no juice these days" I am not sure how you do that.  Most are laying anywhere from -105 to -110 per play.  

2) Unexpected Results - statistically, the more games that you play, the higher the chances of unexpected results and consequences.  Now - granted, these could go in your favor, but for me they tend to go against me.

3) Revenge / Fade Problem - Often times when you are playing many games every night, the typical gambler falls into this "love syndrome" (as I will call it), and will either bet on or against a team repeatedly because they feel "closer" to that team, and feel like they know a particular team better.  This happens to me in baseball when the same teams are playing several days in a row, or they play a series against each other in consecutive weeks.  Joe the Gambler will inadvertingly apply the same logic to the same team in different circumstances.

4)  It is too damn hard & time consuming to keep up & accurately assess the numbers on lots of games for Joe the Gambler.

5) Joe the Gambler is piss poor at money management, and the more games that one bets, including the late night (generate special), causes Joe to lose money over the long term. 

 

 
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Posted: #11

Ever heard of the law of probability?

 
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Posted: #12
Brilliant!!!!  hate the haters, tail by coincidence, fade with gusto, make you own god damn picks, buy your wife something pretty and F the crap out of your girlfriend!  GL to all
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by jennado:

5) Joe the Gambler is piss poor at money management, and the more games that one bets, including the late night (generate special), causes Joe to lose money over the long term. 

 


I prefer mid-day generate specials! 
 
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Posted: #14
You guys in this thread need help. If your losing money stop gambling...LOL
buy $BTC
 
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Posted: #15
Juice - when you say "play at essentially no juice these days" I am not sure how you do that.  Most are laying anywhere from -105 to -110 per play.  
 
Matchbook, selling points, run lines, alt lines, etc.  Of course, I "pay" for some of that too.
 
I don't disagree with the vast majority of what you wrote, but always feel the need to respond to the "too many games" argument that pops up from time to time here.  Historically, I do much better playing 10 than I do playing 1. 
 
 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

Ever heard of the law of probability?

I actually helped write it.   

A coin toss is a 50/50 prop over time.  Pointspreads established by humans are not 50/50 events. 

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by jennado:

 

I feel this way for several reasons:

1) Juice - when you say "play at essentially no juice these days" I am not sure how you do that.  Most are laying anywhere from -105 to -110 per play.  

2) Unexpected Results - statistically, the more games that you play, the higher the chances of unexpected results and consequences.  Now - granted, these could go in your favor, but for me they tend to go against me.

3) Revenge / Fade Problem - Often times when you are playing many games every night, the typical gambler falls into this "love syndrome" (as I will call it), and will either bet on or against a team repeatedly because they feel "closer" to that team, and feel like they know a particular team better.  This happens to me in baseball when the same teams are playing several days in a row, or they play a series against each other in consecutive weeks.  Joe the Gambler will inadvertingly apply the same logic to the same team in different circumstances.

4)  It is too damn hard & time consuming to keep up & accurately assess the numbers on lots of games for Joe the Gambler.

5) Joe the Gambler is piss poor at money management, and the more games that one bets, including the late night (generate special), causes Joe to lose money over the long term. 

 



Let me chime in on this one, because I'm really tired of people who say that playing multiple games is a poor idea as I have been profitable the last two years in MLB, NHL, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF. My response to your five points...


1) Compared to the juice you'd pay to local bookies 10-15 years ago before the internet, nickel or dime juice is cheap. Plus, juice has no impact on how many plays you should make. You're going to pay the same juice whether you make 1 play for $100 or 10 plays for $10.

2) As to your statistical point, when you stated that the more plays you make = more unexpected results, you threw a completely invalid arguement in the face of elementrary statistics. In stats, when figuring out the standard deviation of a set of numbers the higher the amount of entries the lower the deviation will be. If you don't understand this google "standard deviation". The more (as long as they are good) plays you make the more likely you will be in your normal profit range

3) Ok now you've turned joe the gambler into joe the piss poor idiot who happens to gamble. If you are try to say that we on this board are joe the gambler then in this point you have detracted. This is not an arguement aganist playing multiple games either.

4) For most it is, yet since I'm a student and I make my living on my own hours I have plenty time to cap. Capping the days games for me usually take 3-5 hours a day, up to 8 friday-sunday.

5) Simple solution to this is make all your plays before the games and don't make anymore plays unless you have the oppurtunity to middle a play at halftime. 


All in all I don't think it's fair to compare us all to "Joe the Gambler", because just like "Joe the Plumber" you have created an overexaggerated sham.

 
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Posted: #18
Joe the gamler bets favorite and over and who ever played good on tv last night. always has always will.
 
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Posted: #19
[Quote: Originally Posted by jennado]
 
 
Based upon the info that I read on this forum everyday (sometimes it is purely for the comical relief), there are about 20 guys that seem to have an understanding of interpreting some of what the numbers mean.  Everyone else is just guessing....really - that is all you are doing.  This forum is filled with copycat posters, who try to identify those that are picking winning games.  And, when they see a poster gain some short term success, they follow along, and post the game as their own, & comment that they "really like that game too." 
 
 This couldn't be more accurate. I find it hilarious when a few of these good cappers pick a school that no one knows shit about (Ark Little Rock, Tenn Martin for example) and then all of a sudden this team is picked by a bunch of wannabee cappers.... Give me a break, most guys don't even know 1 player on the team........
 
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Posted: #20
Mainroad, Its obvious you have no clue what it means.
 
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Posted: #21
sulfur boy, although i read this forumn a lot, and never post anything. I do think that he has few points, especially when u or one of the guys who are pretty good handicappers pick a small to mid major school that not many people know who they are or what that team is about and you get 22 votes for that team and none against.  This was proven true in goallinebobs cappers thread last week with the Citadel UNC Greensboro game and a few others,  But you with standard deviation, you are exactly right. You seem to be on top of your shit and I agree that as long as the picks are researched you can definitelty be profitable with a decent amount of picks a day. 
 
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Posted: #22
One more thing,  I think the key to being a winner is to not bet just to bet.  I think that people can definitely use other guys picks as a reference, but nothing substitutes doing the final rsearch and decision making for yourself. Tailing blindly can definitley be profitable but it can also be dangerous. So with that said good luck to everyone and make some doe.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

Mainroad, Its obvious you have no clue what it means.

Would you care to enlighten me? 

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Would you care to enlighten me? 


Or maybe explain which law of probability he is speaking of since there is dozens of them.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Sparty's no dummy, nor is he a kid, so I am genuinely interested in what he thinks I don't understand.  Always happy to learn stuff. 
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