Favorites record:
Day #1 ATS record = 63 - 45 (all games)
Day #2 ATS record = 10 - 10
Day #3 ATS record = 8 - 6
Day #4 ATS record = 10 -15
Day #5 - working on it now ......and getting ready for tomorrow sifting through my very best correlations which is how I found Liberty
Saturday Rank Correlations:
George Washington @ USF x HALF U +2.5 and ML HALFU > they should be favorite (Hunch Play)
-ranked better by about 50 ranks
-USF is a tough home court but I still think GW should be favorite
- when teams ranked GW is at are 14 - 4 ATS as favorites ....but they are a dog
Total Play - Butler /IUPUI UNDER 191.5 x 1U ...going to the well again....Butler with a good defense should hold IUPUI under 85 pts and I don't see them scoring over 105 pts if they are working on defense prevention....
Looking for more plays....slowly
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Day 5 ATS record = 25 - 30 for faves .... Thursday was 10 - 15 ATS
Lots of upsets and outright so shark infested waters until December most likely
Strong Fades Today: - very negative rank correlations
Loyola Marymount -19 > take dog
Wyoming -14 > take dog
Kennesaw @ Florida AM -11 > take dog
Good lines for faves: - very good correlations
St Joseph -9
Utah -15.5
St Thomas Timmies -18.5
I am using some of those with parlays with Football and soccer
Day #6 ended : 38 - 20 ATS for favorites!
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Last year Nov 1 - Dec 27th + 6 DAYS of Non Conference games, I have inputted in this chart.....here are the best and worst rank pairings correlated as well as best spread for a rank group
Best Rank Pairing for a favorite team:
1. Teams ranked #1 - #20 vs teams ranked 91st - 120th = 83.3 % success
2. Teams ranked #21 - #40 vs teams ranked 121st - 150th = 83% success
3. Teams ranked #66 - #90 vs teams ranked 121st - 150th = 78.9% success
4. Teams ranked #281 - #330 vs teams ranked 281st - 330th = 67.3% success
5. Teams ranked #66 - #90 vs teams ranked 191st - 230th = 62% success
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Worst Rank Pairing for a favorite team:
1. Teams ranked #151 - #190 vs teams ranked 331st - worst team = only 26.7% success covering ATS
2. Teams ranked #66 - #90 vs teams ranked 231st - 280th = only 30.3% success covering ATS
3. Teams ranked #231 - #280 vs teams ranked 331st to the worst team = only 33% success covering ATS
4. Teams ranked #151 - #190 vs teams ranked 151st to 190th = only 35% success covering ATS
.............will update after each week or so....... I will only tend to chase teams in BEST or WORST team scenarios and press more than Hunch Plays or Totals
Best spreads to take for success with favorites:
-0.5 to -2.5 > for teams ranked #151 - #330 = 120 - 71 = 62.8% success rate
-6.5 to -10.5 > for teams ranked #66 - #90 = 28 - 14 = 67% success rate
-16 to -20.5 > for teams ranked #1 - #40 = 35 - 13 = 73% success rate
Worst spreads:
-11 to -15 > only 2 for 15 > for teams #231 - #280 > also only 29 for 82 games for teams ranked #151 - #280
-16 to -20.5 > only 47 for 116 for teams ranked #66 - #190
Games Sunday coming up...... noon to 1pm > every game is a FADE of the favorite but some are stronger than others:
Data Play #1 > New Hampshire +15.5 x 1.5U
-very strong negative correlation > spread is only 2 - 13 ATS at this number for this ranking (Harvard 254th)
-ATS for fave here is only 13 - 26th covering when these two rank correlations meet
Data Play #2 > Western Mich +9 x HALF U
-weaker fade vs Play #1 for rank correlation but the spread is a strong fade at 15 - 29 ATS for covering by fave with this spread
Might suggest something for 1pm games soon but want to get these out to help those looking at these games
......whoa!!....New Hampshire is hooping today!! (Data Play #1 off and running)
Hunch Play 1pm > James Madison -18.5 x HALF U
-*** going against a strong DOUBLE FADE here.... Coppin lost by 28 pts to Lasalle who is ranked 80 pts worse than James Madison and this line is similar to LaSalle
-any line vs teams ranked worse than 355th has trouble covering medium to high spreads
Not playing Marquette here .....but its worth a KEY for a 5pt TEASER up to +8 
-when teams ranked 21 - 40th play each other, the favorite is only 5 - 11 ATS in Non Conf action from Nov - Holiday season
-getting the home team teased up to +8 or taking a stab at ML might be worth it
TEASER PLAY: HALF U pays +110 each:
1. Marquette +8 with NC Central +15 with James Madison -13.5
.........will have more maybe with 2 pm games with Marquette....inspecting those games first ....good luck with these ideas
Sunday 2pm plays:
Data Play #3 - Dartmouth -1.5 x 1U
-very strong correlations for the favorite but not so much if this line swings the other way.....WATCH this line and lay it close to start .... -2 is still good
-Fave is 14 - 8 ATS with this rank correlation
-spread for the favorite is 35 - 16 ATS 
Fade games at 2 pm.....
-Cornell in a good spot as a fade for both spread and ATS for the fave here not so good with this combo (using in TEASER)
-LeMoyne in a good fade spot with rank correlation and they gave XAVIER fits! ....I like this Bowling Green team so will only use a TEASER for this one
-North Dakota in a good spot as home dog and their opponent on a strong FADE with this rank combo only 22-36 ATS covering for the favorite
-Vermont in a fade situation but the line is chewed down ....better to use BROWN in TEASER
2pm TEASER: -Half U
North Dakota +11.5 with LeMoyne +16.5 with Cornell +11.5
North Dakota +11.5 with Cornell +11.5 with Brown +10.5
3pm to evening slate games:
***do not LOVE anything....but see some value with some of these correlations/spread combos
- Arizona St teased down 5pts
- Montana St -7.5/ teaser Key maybe?
- N.Texas teased up to +6.5
-UC Davis teased up to +7
- Liberty teased down to -3
- Howard -4 and teased down to +1
*** fade USC +28 / greater teaser up to +33 in my opinion ...Manhattan ranked #249 which is decent
Baylor -5.5 is decent with Washington travelling / like Baylor key down to -0.5 teased
Tuesday Data Play - St Mary's -18.5 x 2U
-when a #21 - 40th rank team plays a team #121 - 150......they win 10 - 2 ATS
-when the spread is -16 to -20.5, the #21 - #40th team hits 19 - 6 ATS with that spread range!
Data Play #2 - Winthrop -3 x 1U
- teams ranked #121 - #150 are 25 - 14 ATS when facing a team ranked #281 - 330 .....with a positive ATS for spread as well
Not sure if I was in penalty box or what, because, I could not access any forums for about 5-7 days..... was buried in work regardless so not so bad.
I am caught up now for inputting data. Some definite trends are now front and center:
NON CONFERENCE ANGLES: (fall 2024 + fall 2025)
#1 trend > GAMES GOING OVER!! > new rules of game flow are having an impact, no doubt
#2 trend > Teams ranked in the top 20 ratings are 16 - 3 ATS when facing teams #91 - #120th regardless of spread
#3 trend > Teams ranked #66th - 90th are 19 - 5 ATS when facing teams ranked #121 - #150th
#4 trend > Teams ranked #151 - #190th are a putrid 15 - 39 ATS when facing teams ranked #331 - #365th
#5 trend > Teams ranked #231 - #280th are a putrid 3 - 15 ATS when favorites with a spread -11 to -15.5 and are 21 - 48 ATS with a spread -6 to - 15.5
Games I like today:
OVERS:
Charleston Over 149 x 1U
-Charleston has highest scoring at home (88 avg) and Drake scores more on the road (77 avg) ....will one of them stay in form and if so, that is more than enough to cover this Total
Wisconsin Over 145.5 x HALF U
-scores Over 90 at home per game and SIUE is a decent team that scores over 60
S.Illinois Over 153 x 1U
-regularly scores 80+ on the road and NDST likes to score high 80's at home so I see this one going over quite easily
UNDERS:
Georgia 171.5 x HALF U > avg 102+ at home and FL-AM 63.5 on the road....Georgia's defense is good at home so I expect 5+ more pts by Georgia possibly and 3-5 pts less by Fl-AM....if they play to near avg, it still goes UNDER
Like Oregon Under 140.5 but I think I am going to play the dog in their rivalry instead..... SIDES posting next ....no huge trend catchers today but have been waiting on lines to get better before I have acted today
Sides:
Drake +7.5 x HALF U - better rank than Charleston by 25 places and this is a FADE combo when these two ranks play each other
Oakland +13.5 HALF U - another FADE in my correlations and 168th team faces 96th ranked home team...too many pts
Tulsa +12 x HALF U - this is a double strengthened fade with ranks and pts being a fade
N.Alabama +26 x 1U - strong fade on this one both in spread and correlation .... liked it when it was +23.5 or +24 so patience gives me better price
Beavers +14 x HALF U - these two teams don't score much and rivalry should keep this within 10 pts most of the way
If Gonzaga line hits +37 or even more, I will play it
If Portland St comes back from -7.5 to -6.5 again, I will play it....should have taken it this morning....Cal Baker does not score much
Notice no faves tonight? I will wait for one of the juicy trends and press, otherwise, fades have been doing well the last while and I am taking note of it and implementing my angles now
Record Today and Season:
OVERS:
Charleston Over 149 x 1U 
Wisconsin Over 145.5 x HALF U 
S.Illinois Over 153 x 1U
UNDERS:
Georgia 171.5 x HALF U
Like Oregon Under 140.5 TBD
SIDES:
Drake +7.5 x HALF U
Oakland +13.5 HALF U
Tulsa +12 x HALF U
N.Alabama +26 x 1U TBD
Beavers +14 x HALF U TBD
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Season Record: - Data Plays
Today > 6 - 1 so far..... 3 hanging plays
Overall now: 17 - 12 (+7.5 Units)
TUESDAY #1 Play for me:
Data Play #1 > Yale -8.5 x 3U
-teams ranked #66 - 90th facing a team 121 - 150th in ratings are 19 - 5 ATS and with a spread of -6 to -10.5, they are a further 31 - 16 ATS with such a spread
Might have more soon and definitely some totals tomorrow but have to line up my numbers and that will happen tomorrow
Finally starting to hit my stride in King of Covers.... 3 - 1 yesterday and 12 - 3 - 1 so far tonight
Note: forgot to send this post I was working on before sleep...hopefully numbers are similar as I laid these at around 1 am
Data Play #2 Tuesday - South Carolina -10.5 x HALF U
-good rank correlation but great spread for the fave (31 - 16 ATS correlation)
Hunch Play - James Madison ML and +2.5 (HALF U each)
- why is Towson favorite when they are the road team and only score on average in the 50's for pts both home and road?
- James Mad scores over 80 at home and has a similar rank as Towson.....something does not make sense here
Further cross correlating Data Plays for Tuesday:
DATA Play #3 Longwood -17.5 x 1U
-it does not fit a great correlation on spread or ranks BUT ....MD Shore has a 44 ppg avg facing an undefeated home team scoring over 80 pts as an avg with 160 rank placings separating their skill......this line is too low!
New Haven +25.5 x HALF U
-Seton Hall is not a blazing scoring team and NH has scored over 60 on the road so I think this line is out of whack
Totals:
Seton Hall Over 126.5 x HALF U
-sure New Haven doesn't score much but they have avg 64 pts on the road and lets say they get only 55
-Seton Hall is scoring 74.3 at home..... I think the spread is a dad high as well even if you think SH only scores 68-70 pts....and if they do, I think this TOTAL play will not hit ....I think Seton H hitting their scoring avg is more believable than covering their spread
Will have more as I hack my way through comparisons...
Vermont - Buffalo Over 141.5 x 1U
-Vermont has scored 87 pts per game so far with all road games
-Buffalo avgs 78 and 84 pts at home so far
Columbia -5 x HALF U
-when I compare how much Boston allows other teams to score, its 8 pts higher than Columbia and in addition, Columbia scores 84 avg at home while Boston only scores 64 avg on the road
UNC Wilm -6 x HALF U
-They only allow 60 pts at home and score mid 70's on avg
- I think that number will grow tonight with ECU allowing a terrible 300+ ranked 88 pts against per game
- UNC defense will frustrate a higher scoring ECU team who will find it tough to answer when UNC scores more times than UNCW will have issues
-this spread covers 38 - 30 ATS for this number and the favorite
....will have more likely .... working on moving up in the King of Covers where went from -4300 yesterday at the start to +1250 by the night was over with my overall success rate
Kent St -10 x HALF U and Over 161 x HALF U << separate plays
- what really stands out is the fact that Kent St is one of the highest scoring teams in college (94.2 per game) BUT they allow close to 89 pts per game..... EKY also allows 89 pts per game but only have avg 62 on the road and should they get into a battle back and forth, I rely upon Kent St to get their 90 pts but I cannot see EKY going more than 10-12 pts above their avg of scoring 62 on the road
-110th ranked team vs 229th << which tells me they are being given respect for their offense, but not their defense!
G-South/GTech UNDER 164.4 x 2U
-GTECH are what they are.... 67 pts scored per game and a tough defense that allows 62 per game
-GSOUTH is very offensive with an avg over 90 pts per game......I see that being tested here and held to 70-75 pts on the visitors court......GTECH, I can see them upping their total too but no way do I see this going over 160....UNLESS, GTECH decides to play to their opponents pace
I am betting they don't
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