L2T Conference Betting Thread

@Last2thirst

Play #3 - UNC Under 166 x 1U

-before you consider this, realize I am 0 - 4 for totals in Conference Play

- UNC dictates the pace of games and is a defensive beast this year...FSU, not so much so I expect FSU to be out of sorts and the game flow to be controlled by UNC who can score over 80 but I doubt FSU will get more than 72 pts if strong offensive teams like Ohio St and, ranked higher than them, can only get 70!

Miami Ohio +6 x HALF U

-they dominate this matchup and I am sure that their offense will be comfortable vs a known opponent, as well as their defense that 6 pts is a lot to cover over a team that HAS NOT LOST this season

Colorado St -1.5 x HALF U

-been watching this line for the past 24 hrs....I feel the handicapper is looking at the string of strong teams Nevada has played and beaten but what they don't know is....the Rams have dominated this series and have the #1 and #2 ranks in shooting categories and are on their home floor

-The rank correlations are good too but being cautious here

Seton Hall are an amazing team....down by 2-10 pts most of the second half after a crappy 2nd half start and they completely control the last 2 minutes to take the lead and win by 6 

Awesome!

Play #1 - Temple +1 x 1U   

Play #2 Seton Hall -1.5 x 2U    

Play #3 - UNC Under 166 x 1U  

Miami Ohio +6 x HALF U  

Colorado St -1.5 x HALF U ... still playing 

5 - 2  ATS Conference Play

1 - 4  Totals

@Last2thirst

 let’s gooo!

47 games tomorrow...only 1 is a NON CONFERENCE.

....working with my spreadsheet for ranks and spreads for Conference Matchups

Play #1 - this one jumps right off the page when I look at the analytics, its very favorable for the home fave but a check of how they are playing shows me otherwise

-Army has won 5 of their last 6

-Lehigh has lost 7 of 8  >> Why are the favorite?? 

Army +4 x HALF U

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Play #2 Rice - Tulsa Over 151.5 x 1U

-very strong lean to Tulsa here because of Point Differential of +19 vs Rice and also the fact they are playing well on both sides of the ball but not enough to allow a rival who has beaten them two years in a row and a good 3 pt shooting team, to hold them down to Under 65 pts and more than likely will hit 70..... TULSA is an insta- 85 point team especially if their opponent allows higher than 75 pts avg and Rice does 

-this line comes down, I will jump on Tulsa

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Seeing some positive spread situations:

#197 S.Alabama - 3 @ #342 Louisiana  with a 51 - 42 ATS success rate 

-EVEN ATS on rank correlation 

-point differential on offense is a gulf between them and so I think -3 can be had .....but I can see this as an UNDER too....hoping the total goes up 

Play #3 - SAB -3 x 1U ..... I cannot ignore almost 15 pts in offensive difference ....if total climbs to 129 or higher, I will place a bet on the UNDER too

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#28 NC State -9.5 (h) vs #61 Wake F with a 38 - 32 ATS rate 

-21 - 18 ATS for these rank groups correlated so I really like this NC ST team and their home court but going to see how the overnight treats the line.... (WATCHING!)

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#212 Wofford -2.5 @ #272 Western Carolina with a 42 - 28 ATS success rate at that number 

-slightly negative on the ranking correlation but going to look at the PD to see if I am still interested and going to let this one brew over night as well

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#32 Virginia -4.5 @ #63 VTECJ with a 27 - 18 ATS success rate with that spread

-18-15 ATS on rank correlation ... (WATCHING!)

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#108 FAU (h) facing #276 UTSA with a weak offense ....23 - 14 for favorite in this rank correlation and spread at -15.5 has an 18-15 success rate....want to see this come down a bit 

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#23 St Johns - 9  @ Georgetown #78

-positive rank correlation and spread ...watching this one ...come down a little more and I will buy

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I like a few fade plays to take dogs (watching lines for now / Fade analytics detected on rank combo/spread:

Mercer @ Furman > if lines goes to -5

Charleston @ Elon > hoping for +4 or +4.5

Georgia St @ Marshall > hope it climbs from -13

DePaul @ Villanova > Nova has a couple of strong fades on this one so I like it 

Really like UCONN -12.5 but think the OVER might be better...they always go OVER this number when they play despite how good UCONN's defense can be....on the road, they will get their 75-82 pts and I am sure Xavier will get over 65 on their home floor

A couple of TOTALS I really like when you project the style of game and look at past results:

Clemson-Syracuse Under 142.5 x HALF U

-kind of going against the grain on this one with matchup stats as most recent games have been OVER this total but those have mostly been played @Clemson.....the game is played in a Dome so shooting adjustment is necessary for Clemson and Syracuse plays a 2-3 defense STILL with additions of man to man unlike Boeheim who used a strict 2-3 with maybe only one player man to man

-Clemson numbers have been consistently UNDER 140 against good teams so they don't mind playing this style of game and Syracuse obliges good teams to play this way too

-Clemson is rated very good defensively and so is Syracuse

-Syracuse is the worst FT team in the nation

-Clemson is the #8 best 3 pt defensive team and they do not shoot a lot of 3 pt shots so against a 2-3 zone, its much harder to score inside with 2-3 defenders collapsing the lower post all the time and swarming for defensive rebounds

Play #2 - Charleston-Elon Under 156.5 x 1U

-Charleston - Elon matchups, all 10 of them, have gone UNDER this number including last yr which it was before it went to OT.....

-yes Elon likes a faster game and high scoring at times BUT Charleston slows things down versus much better offenses and keeps totals down when they play good teams if you look at this year's results

Duke Under 156.5 x 1U

-this number is climbing (+4 pts from earlier) and I think its not justified

-they are a defensive team....and so is GTECH...both these teams do not shoot great perse but they sure do defend so when you look at past matchups and see almost all of them UNDER this number, you lick your lips

Denver -10.5 x 1 U

Over 158.5 x 1U

-high output offense that will run you into the ground at elevation while UMKC is terrible but they have shown the occasional ability to score well....either way, I just think Denver bullies them on their home court and with the elevation advantage 

I did play NC State - 9.5  but not in this thread.....parlays with Iowa +5 and Iowa Under NCAAF with a mix of various things and Ohio St ML with Indiana ML and Liverpool soccer

Then some tickets with Army and S. Alabama split with some of those above....

Last night, strong fades on rank correlations were 5 - 2 winners (taking pts)

Strong rank correlation faves were 2 - 3 only

Data is what I need to add to this spreadsheet to get an even better picture....

#1 strong fave correlation that hits is teams #151 - 190 vs teams ranked -331st or worse = 38 - 17 ATS after ETSU covered last night

There are more FADES in Conference play than faves hitting well.....best 3 are:

Fade #151 - 190 when they are favorites and  play #121 - 150th

Fade #151 - 190 when they are faves and play #151 - 190th

Fade #151 - 190 when they are faves and play #231 - 280th 

I will be focusing on this group of teams because they can do well ATS vs one group, but otherwise they are FADES against most other teams when favorite by Vegas 

I will point out some others as correlation numbers grow...

2 - 3  (-1.5) on Totals today....got to get better  (3 - 7 overall now)

3 - 0 (+2.5) on ATS sides (8 - 3 on the Conference Schedule )

Still making  and that's the main thing.....

HAPPY NEW YEAR ! I rarely drink anymore but sipping some great Blanco Tequila all night (just started) and listening to good tunes and gonna have some dinner and games/dancing with the wife... cheers everyone 

After party and looking at game results/stats

Pure FADES on rank correlations went 8 - 7 - 1 for taking dogs....

Taking rank correlation FAVES with positive correlations would have went 5 - 2 if I would have played all of them....

Remember, its still about  being selective and matching up and filtering but now you can cut it down with comparing GOOD situations 

I would change your number 3 factor....points allowed is not indicative of a team"s defensive quality....a team that plays a slow tempo against another slow tempo team may give up 55 points in a game...while a team that gives up 65 playing a fast tempo themselves along with a fast tempo team against them may actually be much better on defense.....points per possession is all that matters really...and in this era..three point defense is so crucial.....i would eliminate the points allowed stuff all together and replace it ......but the strength of schedule stuff is huge....you will find lots of good underdog plays using big edges in that factor....often overlooked by the public...

I appreciate the perspective.... and will give that some thought. 3pt Defense yes...I had always planned to be added because I know come tourney time, its THE factor in many games that prevent one and done and if you think about it, a game played during Conference Play should be approached in such a manner as well I suppose

Thank you! Love hearing someone who looks at matchups analytically 

Play #1 - Northern Colorado +3 (1.80) x 2U

-when two teams ranked 151 - 190th play...the favorite is only 12 - 28 ATS and with a spread of -2.5 they are 32 - 54 ATS and 30 - 58 - 3 with a spread of -3 to -5.5 

Looking for more, but this one stood out while I am watching Ducks vs Raiders

TEXAS TECH - Ducks UNDER 44.5 x 2U in-game .

Whoops...

N.Colorado game is a double strong fade of rank correlation and spread ..

The other game that might be worth some small action and positive rank and spread correlation is Austin Peay -14.5 if you can get that .... 

UC San Diego is positive for both as well at -8.5 but would only bet small here 

For the most part, today was mostly about FADES and not too many teams ranked under 150th ....going to update those Point Differentials on the side of the bracket.... and do 150+ ranks tomorrow. I will do shotmaking and defensive stats once every 2-3 weeks as they do not tend to change that drastically over 2 games....3-4 games they might

Tomorrow....BIG NIGHT.....lots of interesting matchups and some cheeky lines

Cheekiest Line:

WVU @ Iowa St -16.5 < dig into this one and you are quite surprised how tight they play each other

- Cyclones had trouble with another team that came into their building with a defensive system to control them (Iowa)

- all my analytics say PUT THE CASH on Iowa St...including the spread at this number but  I dunno about that....

Sparty @ Nebraska -2

-favorable rank correlation for fave here and look at Nebraska who they are beating and by how much but this is SPARTY coming in ..... I strongly lean to my best homecourt in any year, to bet !

San Diego @ San Fran -10.5 ....didn't San Diego just keep it within 10 pts of Gonzaga???

-my analytics say jump on home fave here ...but I don't know

Notre Dame @ California -4.5

-one of the highest spread ATS success rates is this line for California with their ranking group..... 30 - 17 since I have been charting games last season and this year but the matchup of ranks say take Irish...I like this Calif team a lot but offered no resistance to Louisville the other night

See what I mean??

I will definitely have some plays posted before I turn the lights out....there is one I really like already

Play #1 - Nebraska ML x 2U  @ 1.76

Play #2 - Oregon St +4.5 x 1U

-strong double fade the favorite on spread and rank group correlation

- same stats but Beavers have better FT stats and I think this one will stay close or they will win ML .....on that basis if the home team cannot connect if the Beavers get up by 2-3 late 

Play #3 - WVU +16.5 x HALF U ...but if this line drops quite a bit, I will pivot to take the favorite stronger than just a HALF U

I know what I want from at  least 5 more lines and possibly more but going to let the lines and TOTALS brew a little overnight and revisit in the morning

New Betting style - Quarter Parlays ($25)

-I'll keep track under an Exotic category in my updates (8 - 4 ATS/ losing Totals record so far)

-only play on days when you feel there are 3-5 strong UNDER plays

-use pure TOTALS Under or Over on any given day

-mix in best ATS big spreads sometimes

UNDER PARLAYS - $25 each

1. New Haven Under 127.5 with Iowa St Under 143.5  = +261

2. Canisius Under 139 with WVU +18 = +261

3. Marist Under 131.5 with Niagara Under 141.5 = +261

4.  Delaware Under 127.5 with Iowa St Under with Michigan -21.5 = +585

I am expecting to hit a couple or few of these.....

UNDER PARLAYS - $25 each

1. New Haven Under 127.5  YES with Iowa St Under 143.5  = +261

2. Canisius Under 139 NO with WVU +18 = +261

3. Marist Under 131.5 MAYBE/GONNA BE TIGHT  with Niagara Under 141.5  YES = +261

4.  Delaware Under 127.5 LIKELY with Iowa St Under with Michigan -21.5  = +585

Got one parlay ....maybe two and close to getting them all ....will do that again when I see some numbers lining up