YTD: 21-13 (61.8%)
1-0 last play –coming off a very nice spot to play an over in the Yale / Cornell game on Friday night
Tonight’s small card provides a very good opportunity to step outside of the box and play a recent trend that analysis of year-to-date statistics doesn’t fully reveal.
Play: Iowa St / Baylor Under 66.5 First Half
Both teams come into tonight slightly above the national average of 66.5 possessions per game with respect to adjusted tempo. (ISU 67.2, Baylor 66.8). The significance, however, is found when you compare their year-to-date averages to the recent results for each team. In the eight combined conference games since 1/31 that they teams have played, not one game has exceeded 66 total possessions, and the average has dropped to 63.4 ppg (even more impressive considering the fact that the fastest team in the B12 Kansas is factored into that average twice).
The cause for the decrease? Most would argue that it’s the typical grind of the conference season with teams playing that are very familiar with one another. But this year, the correlation to this belief might even be more prevalent due to an unprecedented scheduling quirk:
Big 12 teams have never had a more active January. All teams will have played nine conference games (through January), more than ever because of the 18-game schedule in the 10-team league. Fatigue could come into play as the weeks continue. (From the Kansas City Star, 1/31)
And just as this article projected, we’ve seen a sudden drop off in pace and offensive production from both of these teams. Nothing can highlight this point further than the 59 possession grind that Baylor is coming off of this weekend vs Mizzou.
But why the 1st half under vs the full game? Personally I think this is going to be a much closer game than the spread indicates, and do not want the full game under to be lost in the last minutes of the game due to fouling (full disclosure: I do have a small ISU +10 ticket in my pocket off the opening BOL line). Also worth noting is that the first half is 7-1 to the under combined since 1/31 for these teams.
One last point goes back to the Missouri/Baylor game referenced above. The only thing anyone was talking about after that game this weekend was Missouri connecting on a season high 14 3-point attempts. As a result, I expect Baylor to have a determined effort, especially early, to contest the perimeter jump shots of ISU—a team that ranks 14th in the country in 3PA/FGA and gets 36.1% of their points from behind the arc (20th best in the nation).
Of course this could go over if either team gets hot early. But I believe recent results support the opinion that points will be much harder to come by than season statistics would indicate tonight, especially with a focused Baylor team playing in front of their home crowd.
Good luck if you decide to make a play