Appreciate the post. Gonna look for a live line better than +3 and hit it. Of course law of averages says the guy has to win at some point. It is just as hard to lose a ton as it is to win a ton.
Well mathematically that is....
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Appreciate the post. Gonna look for a live line better than +3 and hit it. Of course law of averages says the guy has to win at some point. It is just as hard to lose a ton as it is to win a ton.
[Quote: Originally Posted by FiatLux4] Appreciate the post. Gonna look for a live line better than +3 and hit it. Of course law of averages says the guy has to win at some point. It is just as hard to lose a ton as it is to win a ton.
Well mathematically that is....
[/Quote]
I agree with your thought process but also on the flip side, as a bookie I have seen many guys go on absolute horrendous runs. So bad I thought for sure some would have jumped in front of traffic. It goes both ways (winning/losing) but I laugh when guys say bettors are 50/50 in the end. Win/Loss record, yes. Money wise, hell no. When they chase and increase bet size that's when the sh it hits the fan hard...real messy
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[Quote: Originally Posted by FiatLux4] Appreciate the post. Gonna look for a live line better than +3 and hit it. Of course law of averages says the guy has to win at some point. It is just as hard to lose a ton as it is to win a ton.
Well mathematically that is....
[/Quote]
I agree with your thought process but also on the flip side, as a bookie I have seen many guys go on absolute horrendous runs. So bad I thought for sure some would have jumped in front of traffic. It goes both ways (winning/losing) but I laugh when guys say bettors are 50/50 in the end. Win/Loss record, yes. Money wise, hell no. When they chase and increase bet size that's when the sh it hits the fan hard...real messy
I was leaning strongly towards Dayton, then I saw your pick and went with the same pick.
It's amusing that you have an auto-fade agent with which you automatically go the other way in the picks.
Never mind the haters-taters ... keep on sharing your picks, if you like.
There is 1 sharp who plays 1 game per day (or will pass). Whatever he plays I follow. With my read-only access as an agent I can see what others are doing and what their results are.
The # of bets are meaningless if you are into fading the consensus. It's all about how much $ and where that $ is leaning. It's also about who is chasing and who is increasing their bet size.
Yes, most bettors are 50% at the end of the day but their bankroll is definitely not.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:
Retire_Early~
Thanks for the pick.
I was leaning strongly towards Dayton, then I saw your pick and went with the same pick.
It's amusing that you have an auto-fade agent with which you automatically go the other way in the picks.
Never mind the haters-taters ... keep on sharing your picks, if you like.
There is 1 sharp who plays 1 game per day (or will pass). Whatever he plays I follow. With my read-only access as an agent I can see what others are doing and what their results are.
The # of bets are meaningless if you are into fading the consensus. It's all about how much $ and where that $ is leaning. It's also about who is chasing and who is increasing their bet size.
Yes, most bettors are 50% at the end of the day but their bankroll is definitely not.
I agree with your thought process but also on the flip side, as a bookie I have seen many guys go on absolute horrendous runs. So bad I thought for sure some would have jumped in front of traffic. It goes both ways (winning/losing) but I laugh when guys say bettors are 50/50 in the end. Win/Loss record, yes. Money wise, hell no. When they chase and increase bet size that's when the sh it hits the fan hard...real messy
Haha that's why as I was typing it, I stopped and finished it with the mathematically portion. You are absolutely correct, when that chase mode goes, everything goes in the crapper. I would be lying if I said I hadn't been there before, it was a harsh lesson and I definitely had thought about stepping in traffic so I get it. During that phase I told my buddies that I didn't get it. I was the only person I knew that could win 75% of his bets and still lose money. Everyone thinks having the right pick is most important but it's not even close.
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Quote Originally Posted by retire_early:
I agree with your thought process but also on the flip side, as a bookie I have seen many guys go on absolute horrendous runs. So bad I thought for sure some would have jumped in front of traffic. It goes both ways (winning/losing) but I laugh when guys say bettors are 50/50 in the end. Win/Loss record, yes. Money wise, hell no. When they chase and increase bet size that's when the sh it hits the fan hard...real messy
Haha that's why as I was typing it, I stopped and finished it with the mathematically portion. You are absolutely correct, when that chase mode goes, everything goes in the crapper. I would be lying if I said I hadn't been there before, it was a harsh lesson and I definitely had thought about stepping in traffic so I get it. During that phase I told my buddies that I didn't get it. I was the only person I knew that could win 75% of his bets and still lose money. Everyone thinks having the right pick is most important but it's not even close.
Thanks again for the post, I pounded the crap out of Dayton live in the beginning at +4.5. After seeing the way the first half went I sprinkled some more on the second half ML.
Like I said earlier in the day, you have my attention and now my gratitude for both plays today.
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Thanks again for the post, I pounded the crap out of Dayton live in the beginning at +4.5. After seeing the way the first half went I sprinkled some more on the second half ML.
Like I said earlier in the day, you have my attention and now my gratitude for both plays today.
Logged into the PPH site looking at the various gamblers and their pending / results.1 guy is 9-25 -$9,710 so far in tourney action.That is negative $9.7KTonight he has a max wager $2K on Providence -3I played Dayton but the current line is +2.5DAYTON+2.5Friday
Another good hit. Nice !!
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Quote Originally Posted by retire_early:
Logged into the PPH site looking at the various gamblers and their pending / results.1 guy is 9-25 -$9,710 so far in tourney action.That is negative $9.7KTonight he has a max wager $2K on Providence -3I played Dayton but the current line is +2.5DAYTON+2.5Friday
So let me understand this better some plays you follow a sharp and others you fade losers? Whatever you do keep doing it!!! Will you have a play for any early games today.
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So let me understand this better some plays you follow a sharp and others you fade losers? Whatever you do keep doing it!!! Will you have a play for any early games today.
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