Posted:
#1
Point total for the UCLA/UCSB was 164. Final score was 102-62. Unbelievable. How does it all work? Do they run simulations or something?
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How does Vegas do it?
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Posted:
#4
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
Not completely accurate as CG is first out of the gate in some sports. Wynn and Westgate as well.
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Posted:
#5
print out the schedule, make up any lines and o/u for every game that day, and then go back and look at how many you nail right on the head too....it ain't that hard....if you make lines for 40 CBB games a day, you are bound to hit a bunch too...it's a numbers game....you don't bet every game, but you are looking at the spread and total for every game....so they may make a line that is 25 points off in one game and you don't notice or make a thread about it but the 1 game, just the 1 game out of 40 that night, that they hit on the head you looked at and remembered....think about it...
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Posted:
#10
Its not rigged. The odds makers look to throw lines out that will get 50% on one side and 50% on the other side and cash in on the VIG. Thats the whole goal and thats why lines move when more money gets on one side vs the other.
When they initially set the lines there are few trusted sources that start with a small pool to get initial feedback on where public will bet and once they are comfortable those numbers its close to a 50/50 split they release the lines.
Same thing with the PROPs. However with the spread the chances of hitting are 50% so the house over time should never be in a losing proposition with the VIGS collected on even bets and every now and then the cash on a lopsided game or pay out big on lopsided game. For every game that comes down to the half point there are games that are 30 points over -
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Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
So what did sportsbooks do before the explosion of offshore gaming? For as long as there has been sports betting, and for every booking house in the country be it legitimate or otherwise, do you think they all sat/sit around waiting on some wire service from "offshore" to get there lines? To answer his question correctly, there are teams of mathematicians, statisticians, and handicappers who pour over every angle, storyline, injury, ect. (and you're right, algorithms are heavily used). Public perception is also a huge factor, so you have to know a fair bit about the psychology of gamblers. They don't always hit the number dead center and they don't always want to. An oddsmaker just wants to pull in even action on both sides of a bet so that they profit off of the juice. Sometimes they're dead on. Sometimes they're waaaay off. They don't care, just as long as they make money. When they miss on a line, and public pounds one side heavy, they'll move the line. Sometimes they'll use line movement to scare bettors away from a particular side. All of a sudden there's random movement, usually day of game, and bettors think, "Gee, is there some injury I don't know about? Should I bet the other side?" when really they want to even out their action and they're resorting to trickery. Basically, to sum up this longwinded response, they're just very smart. And now with the aid of computers (and those algorithms), they don't miss often.
R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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Posted:
#12
the public prefers betting for more action so the lines are always skewed to the over. The computer may spit out a total of 150 but the line will probably be something like 156. I have to say I am often amazed though at how close they come - with so many variables at play. A good example was that seton hall game where the guy fouls with .004 seconds on the clock - leading to a cover for seton hall and a loss for sc bettors.
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Posted:
#14
coldbrew -
None of the responses provided to your UCSB/UCLA total inquiry are incorrect, however, I think that I can provide a more direct solution.
I only handicap CBB, so cannot speak to other sports, but can tell you that the oddsmakers (whether it be offshore or Vegas) have become extremely reliant on the projected outcomes produced by Ken Pomeroy on his KenPom website. The site projects outcomes for each and ever Division I game. Yesterday, KenPom projected a final outcome of 95-69 (164 points); hence, the 164 released total.
If you were to examine the opening totals vs. the KenPom projections on any given day, you will find that the posted total mirrors the KenPom projection in most instances. The oddsmakers also use the KenPom projections for setting the point spread, but are a bit more willing to move from the KenPom number based on public perception of the teams. For instance, That UCLA side opened at around -27.5 to -28.0 despite the -26 KenPom projection. The oddsmakers knew that the whole world had just witnessed the Bruins put on an offensive clinic vs. Michigan on national television a couple of days prior, so slightly adjusted the line to reflect the anticipated public response.
The KenPom projections are actually fairly simplistic despite all of the algorithms. Basically, it consists of projecting the number of possessions each team will have using current Adjusted Tempo ratings (AdjT) in relation to the national average and then computing the number of points each team will score based on current "tempo-free" points per possessions data. All of this information is available on the KenPom website, and you can compute your own game projection in a matter of moments using a simple Excel formula.
Of course, creating a line as good as the Pomeroy line does absolutely no good for handicapping purposes. The trick is to create a better line than KenPom. That is the task that I have undertaken for the last couple of years. Find out what the KenPom line doesn't account for and you that omission to beat it. Definitely easier said than done. KenPom doesn't account for injuries or player absences, but I have found that with few exceptions (missing PGs perhaps being one) that absent personnel isn't as important as most believe because the oddsmakers will make any necessary adjustments.
Also, KenPom improved his HCA ratings this year to more accurately reflect actual home court advantage (rather than a fixed percentage) - making it tougher for the player to realize value in that respect.
In my research, I have concluded that there are two primary facets in which the KenPom line does not accurately account.
(1) It's slow to recognize teams that are playing substantially better than or worse than expected. To be sure, Pomeroy's system recognize teams outperforming and underperforming expectations, but is slow to accept those deviations (from initial beginning year projections). Accordingly, if you can identify teams significantly out or under performing vs. expectations, you can make some headway in this regard. This year, Arkansas State is an example of a team which is over performing in relation to the KenPom projections, and for which value can be realized.
(2) The second methodology for beating the KenPom line is by properly identifying teams that are likely to be hyper-focused or lack focus. Really good teams coming off SU losses tend to perform extremely well in their immediately following game. For example, Kentucky was an auto-play for me (despite the big number) following its home loss to UCLA. As a -20 home favorite vs. a decent Valpo squad, UK won by 24, but the game wasn't even that close. The Cats were up 34 midway through the 2-H before putting it into cruise control down the stretch. Can you imagine how motivated those UK players were after enduring some intense Calipari practices following an upset home loss? I think that the Celtics would have been in trouble on that day (ok, perhaps that's going too far)
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Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:
So what did sportsbooks do before the explosion of offshore gaming? For as long as there has been sports betting, and for every booking house in the country be it legitimate or otherwise, do you think they all sat/sit around waiting on some wire service from "offshore" to get there lines? To answer his question correctly, there are teams of mathematicians, statisticians, and handicappers who pour over every angle, storyline, injury, ect. (and you're right, algorithms are heavily used). Public perception is also a huge factor, so you have to know a fair bit about the psychology of gamblers. They don't always hit the number dead center and they don't always want to. An oddsmaker just wants to pull in even action on both sides of a bet so that they profit off of the juice. Sometimes they're dead on. Sometimes they're waaaay off. They don't care, just as long as they make money. When they miss on a line, and public pounds one side heavy, they'll move the line. Sometimes they'll use line movement to scare bettors away from a particular side. All of a sudden there's random movement, usually day of game, and bettors think, "Gee, is there some injury I don't know about? Should I bet the other side?" when really they want to even out their action and they're resorting to trickery. Basically, to sum up this longwinded response, they're just very smart. And now with the aid of computers (and those algorithms), they don't miss often.
Sportsbooks would come up with their own lines and compare them to their competing books before offshores came around. Vegas books really don't care about random NBA or CBB games. They care about winning money in the NFL and big CFB games. A random college basketball total that hits the number is not surprising one bit. Anyone can come up with totals for college games and hit a few once in a while. If they were on the nose every game, it'd be one thing, but obviously that is impossible. But, for someone to think that "Vegas" is doing this is just incorrect.
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Posted:
#16
Don't listen to this guy with his Kenpom BS. Sure, they may take some stuff from Kenpom, but they books do not care about getting it "right." They care about having even action on both sides to win the juice, especially in NBA and CBB.
And for real, Vegas books do not care about random NBA and CBB games nearly the amount they care about NFL and big CFB games. If they win in the NFL, it's all gravy.
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Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by coldbrew1130:
Point total for the UCLA/UCSB was 164. Final score was 102-62. Unbelievable. How does it all work? Do they run simulations or something?
Point total for the UCLA/UCSB was 164. Final score was 102-62. Unbelievable. How does it all work? Do they run simulations or something?
this game is cooked. i bet Over 164. the last 1.32 seconds was not score one single point. with that many Point OU....u think they score nothing in the last mins...i dont think so....there were so many game they cooked like this one
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Posted:
#18
PapaShango - I would concur that the books don't care about getting it right and that their primary goal is to split the action, but with the proliferation of KenPom in the media and especially the betting market, books would be remiss if they didn't account for his projections in their lines. The books use the KenPom projections precisely to attain 50/50 action because they know so many bettors will be examining the KenPom projections as part of their wagers.
This is not conjecture. There is empirical proof supporting this. Let's examine just a couple of today's opening lines:
UCF/ at GW - Pomeroy projects GW 65-64 (129)
Opening Line: GW -1.5 (128.5)...The public bets GW up because of the absence of BJ Taylor while betting the total down for the same reason.
CofC at ECU - Pomeroy projects CofC 59-58 (117)
Opening Line: ECU -1 (119.5)...Books know that CofC not a Public favorite (presumably because of its offensive struggles), so adjusts line accordingly. Proves to be correct in this assertion, as the Public has bet ECU up to -2. Public eschews such low totals so
Ga So at FIU - Pomeroy projects GA So 70-68 (138)
Opening Line: GA So -2 (142.5)...Point spread in perfect alignment with KenPom. Total is set higher for reasons unknown.
I'm not claiming that the point spread and total will always be in exact alignment with the KenPom projections or that the books don't incorporate other resources in constructing lines. I opened my post by stating that the prior comments concerning line origination were not wrong. I'm merely addressing the original inquiry as to how oddsmakers so accurately set the lines. They most definitely examine the KenPom lines before releasing. To not do so would be naïve, as so many in the marketplace rely upon KenPom numbers in wagering.
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Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by d1coach:
where can i new ken's score projections and lines>?
KenPom.com...incredibly valuable resource and to suggest Vegas isn't looking, is foolish...The lines are almost spot-on and that's why BigKid offered some valuable thoughts on how to use the stats he provides.
The games he lists at 90% or better on the "Fan Match" page are usually very, very close to the actual number.
I start from the bottom of the "Fan Match" page, at the higher percentages, and work my way up.
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Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
"Vegas" doesn't do anything. It's all algorithms that come from off shore. Vegas doesn't post any first lines. They copy all of their lines from off shore. People need to stop saying "Vegas does this and Vegas does that." It's not how it works.
Bingo
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Posted:
#24
There is definitely fixed games too, I've already seen a couple this year, when its a 3point game with 8 seconds left and the team down is literally slapping the garbage out the player with the ball for 8 full seconds with no call I'm sorry but the NCAA needs to investigate garbage like that IMO.
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