December Hoops

 lean/ ill chicago

Never, line moves mean nothing to me.

12/30 Conference Notes: Detroit’s home for the first time since the first week of December, and you would have to think the break was much needed for this squad after going on the road for four, and finally running out of gas at Bradley. What’s even more important here outside of this game is that Detroit draws Wisconsin MKE next time out, and the game plan will be the exact same for both meetings as they are two of the most similar teams in the country as far as makeup and style of play. It should be a luxury here for Detroit after tonight’s contest with only one day of prep for MKE on Saturday. I will learn from this game, and use it for Saturday if necessary. Home team has won nine out of the last ten in the MKE/Wright State series, and MKE’s been off for 12 days, which could be too much time. Wright State’s always been good at home, and their defense is top notch. UIC and Youngstown State is just one matchup that does not appeal to me. I value UIC a slightly better team, but these are two of the worst in the Horizon and you can flip a coin here. D’Aundray Brown was supposed to return in the last week of December, so I’m guessing it’s tonight, but I cannot confirm. In Loyola’s first two conference games, they put up 63 and 56, and both of those games were at home, and now they get the toughest defensive squad in the conference (if Brown is back). South Alabama is playing a bit of a faster up-and-down than in past years, but I don’t expect it to continue going into conference play. They return quite a bit of members who were newcomers last year, and while the defense hasn’t improved to where they want it, it should when they’re playing lesser competition in the Sun Belt. The second year when a team has quite a few returning generally means a better defensive ballclub, so we should get back to where they were last year any game now. They’ve been far from effective on the road too. Since losing their top returning effective scorer in Daniel Bryant a few games ago, Arkansas State has been focusing on getting the ball inside quite a bit more as that’s where their advantage in most games lie. They are a better defensive team without Bryant, and they rebound extremely well. Both teams have home game look aheads against upper tier Sun Belt teams on deck. Arkansas State should be able to defend it pretty well. Both teams are pretty familiar with each other as they both return quite a bit. Should be a pretty good game.  I do not value North Texas as high as most are, but they had a pretty successful non-conference schedule, but they have some awful matchups in conference play I think. I need to see a bit more of them before investing. Onto the Big West. I like UC Davis again obviously with the extra guard in the lineup, which should help the hectic defensive pressure from Northridge. I value these two teams pretty similar in this conference with UC Davis getting a slight nod. I’m not going to invest in this spot though. UC Davis had a pretty big road win  and any team winning two straight road games in this conference is a special feat. Not only the fact that they’re on the road for a second roady, but they get UC Santa Barbara up next. CS Northridge is a bit unknown in terms of talent, but they play a ton of minutes and focus on getting turnovers, and they’ll probably lead the conference in forcing them by years end, and they’re coming off a game where they got Pacific out of their comfort zone for a bit and played up-tempo. I like UC Davis matchup wise, but other than that, this just isn’t a spot worth risking I don’t think, even with the extra guard in the lineup with Lowenthal out (Eddie Miller been playing fantastic). Pacific should be able to score on any possession they want against Fullerton’s defense. But again, not a spot I want my investment in with Pacific on the fourth straight roady, second straight conference roady. I think Long Beach State’s a much better team than Cal Poly in terms of my conference predictions, but going against one another is a different story. Again, the two-road game angle in this conference is at play, and Long Beach State is coming off a game in which they performed better than they will the rest of the year, both offensively and defensively. They played a complete game and their best game of the year to defeat UC Santa Barbara, and even shot their free throws at a better clip. And with that, this is a pretty decent letdown spot on the seventh game of a seven game roady.  Cal Poly is a team that was horribly defensive last year due to the loss of Will Donahue in the second half of last season, which was a major factor in their end of year ranking. He was pretty much the only post player on the roster, and with his loss, they had the smallest team in the league last year with nobody getting minutes taller than 6’5”. He’s back this year, and their defense is much improved. Cal Poly should be able to slow the pace, almost to an uneasy feeling for Long Beach here. Is Long Beach the better team? Yes, I think so come year’s end within the standings. This is just a nightmare spot for LBSTU, and I can’t trust Monson at this point to alter anything different than what he has done in the past, and that’s fail in this very spot. Can’t find too much value in the Summit League tonight. Coming in, Oakland and Oral Roberts should have been the top two teams in the conference and they have played some classic matchups in past years, but with the loss of Craion as I have mentioned, I don’t think Oral Roberts can consistently compete in the conference here this year. I found a bit of value in the South Dakota State/UMKC matchup as I like UMKC’s matchups and offensive ability combined with SDSTU on the road for a while, but neither team plays defense, so not worth my investment.

Waiting on: A total for Georgia State/Tenny Chattanooga (I’ve commented on Chattanooga style of get out and go as much as possible with all the juco talent, and Georgia State, despite the slower style of play, really shouldn’t be any different today, b/c they’re the same type of makeup with a bunch of top recruits at one time who went back to juco and then came back up. Both teams won’t mind running here I don’t think. Back-to-back games is a bit of a concern, but neither teams starters logged more than 20 minutes in blowout games). A total for Furman/Northeastern (Furman offense should get back up to speed today against a Northeastern team that has exhibited absolutely positively zero defense on back-to-back situations this year). A total for South Dakota State/UMKC (read above).

GL