NROPP - Very very solid capping! Thanks for sharing your knowledge and information with everyone. It is greatly appreciated. I am new to covers, but have been following the forum for about 3 weeks now and no question about it are best hoops capper on here that i have seen. keep up good work! THX!
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NROPP - Very very solid capping! Thanks for sharing your knowledge and information with everyone. It is greatly appreciated. I am new to covers, but have been following the forum for about 3 weeks now and no question about it are best hoops capper on here that i have seen. keep up good work! THX!
12/28 Results: UC Davis controlled Peltier and shot it well from the field. Oral Roberts will continue to struggle without Craion in the Summit Conference. Seton Hall bounced back as expected, although it was still pretty ugly. Long Beach State embarrassed UC Santa Barbara, will be looking forward to that rematch. Can’t believe Riverside beat UC Irvine, probably the biggest shocker from yesterday’s results. Looks like UC Irvine had an awful shooting night combined with some foul trouble to the big names. Minnesota’s still a decent team, but they start out with a brutal Big Ten schedule (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State).
Sides: 32-20, +14.70
Totals: 22-10, +10.70
DNP: 41-30
12/29 Non-Conference Notes: Try to focus on a few key games and one-liners on the rest. Wake Forest and Richmond played to one point over this listed total last year, but they needed an 18 point overtime to do so. George Mason & Dayton should be a great ballgame, probably one of the best watching games on the card. Both have great offenses and defenses. GM tail end of a three game roady. Can’t really side with one team here, home court could be worth something if this game isn’t played over break and I think GM matches up well enough and has revenge, and slight look ahead for Dayton with revenge on New Mexico next time out. Both Towson and Lasalle should put up some points. Both teams play extremely fast and neither one is great defensively. Both teams are coming off a few losses and should be fresh, so the opportunities will be there to score. When Hampton gets up 59 shots and Princeton gets up 61 shots, your defense must be awful. This one should get close to the over. I like Rhode Island, but Boston College has revenge, and the slower tempo might take its course on Rhody. If there wasn’t 1,800 other games today, I’d take a deeper look. No real interest in any of these mini-tourney’s going on. Wofford/VCU should be a good ballgame with VCU coming off a loss. Not really sure why the host would match itself up with Wofford in the first game and pit the other two lesser knowns in the other game, unless it’s a round-robin format. Thought it was awkward, but VCU probably has a reason for it. I’m very interested to see how Furman comes off the break that they entered on fire from the field, especially facing a tough defensive squad in UCF. Furman’s road losses to the #103 and #105 defenses, which is the best they faced on the road, both resulted in losses where they scored 49 and 74. UCF’s defense is much better than both and their offense gets the best shot available every trip down the court.
12/29 Conference Notes: No real interest in Bradley on the road in the MVC as I’ve pointed out those key injuries, and absolutely no interest in backing Indiana State as chalk in the conference. St. John’s and West Virginia match up pretty well. I think Georgetown has enough offense to beat Notre Dame in an up and down scenario, but the thing I can’t go against is Coach Brey with time to prepare as I pointed out early December when they played Kentucky. What I failed to realize is that they have always been awful in Freedom Hall. I have Georgetown at the top two teams in the Big East, but I expect them to lose some ballgames, and given the amount of prep time for Brey, and this being a home game, there should be some value on the home pup. I also think ND tries to slow them down a bit, too. Evansville and Wichita State are usually pretty good and close ballgames. I’ve said this before about Evansville, but there will be some better spots than this one in conference play to back them. Southern Illinois triple revenge from last year...
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12/28 Results: UC Davis controlled Peltier and shot it well from the field. Oral Roberts will continue to struggle without Craion in the Summit Conference. Seton Hall bounced back as expected, although it was still pretty ugly. Long Beach State embarrassed UC Santa Barbara, will be looking forward to that rematch. Can’t believe Riverside beat UC Irvine, probably the biggest shocker from yesterday’s results. Looks like UC Irvine had an awful shooting night combined with some foul trouble to the big names. Minnesota’s still a decent team, but they start out with a brutal Big Ten schedule (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State).
Sides: 32-20, +14.70
Totals: 22-10, +10.70
DNP: 41-30
12/29 Non-Conference Notes: Try to focus on a few key games and one-liners on the rest. Wake Forest and Richmond played to one point over this listed total last year, but they needed an 18 point overtime to do so. George Mason & Dayton should be a great ballgame, probably one of the best watching games on the card. Both have great offenses and defenses. GM tail end of a three game roady. Can’t really side with one team here, home court could be worth something if this game isn’t played over break and I think GM matches up well enough and has revenge, and slight look ahead for Dayton with revenge on New Mexico next time out. Both Towson and Lasalle should put up some points. Both teams play extremely fast and neither one is great defensively. Both teams are coming off a few losses and should be fresh, so the opportunities will be there to score. When Hampton gets up 59 shots and Princeton gets up 61 shots, your defense must be awful. This one should get close to the over. I like Rhode Island, but Boston College has revenge, and the slower tempo might take its course on Rhody. If there wasn’t 1,800 other games today, I’d take a deeper look. No real interest in any of these mini-tourney’s going on. Wofford/VCU should be a good ballgame with VCU coming off a loss. Not really sure why the host would match itself up with Wofford in the first game and pit the other two lesser knowns in the other game, unless it’s a round-robin format. Thought it was awkward, but VCU probably has a reason for it. I’m very interested to see how Furman comes off the break that they entered on fire from the field, especially facing a tough defensive squad in UCF. Furman’s road losses to the #103 and #105 defenses, which is the best they faced on the road, both resulted in losses where they scored 49 and 74. UCF’s defense is much better than both and their offense gets the best shot available every trip down the court.
12/29 Conference Notes: No real interest in Bradley on the road in the MVC as I’ve pointed out those key injuries, and absolutely no interest in backing Indiana State as chalk in the conference. St. John’s and West Virginia match up pretty well. I think Georgetown has enough offense to beat Notre Dame in an up and down scenario, but the thing I can’t go against is Coach Brey with time to prepare as I pointed out early December when they played Kentucky. What I failed to realize is that they have always been awful in Freedom Hall. I have Georgetown at the top two teams in the Big East, but I expect them to lose some ballgames, and given the amount of prep time for Brey, and this being a home game, there should be some value on the home pup. I also think ND tries to slow them down a bit, too. Evansville and Wichita State are usually pretty good and close ballgames. I’ve said this before about Evansville, but there will be some better spots than this one in conference play to back them. Southern Illinois triple revenge from last year...
...I have Missouri State valued over Northern Iowa by a few spots in the MVC, but this early in the year, the game is pretty moot. Yes, it’s important for both teams, but anything inside of a possession, especially at Northern Iowa doesn’t really hold much value in my eyes. I’m trying to shy away from Illinois State this year, but this could be a good spot to play them. They’ve been getting key contributions from role players lately, and that’s something that wasn’t happening at the beginning of the year. Creighton really hasn’t came out on top of anybody decent that they have played and they weren’t all that great on the road last year in the conference + they’ll have McDermott coaching his first roady in the MVC. This should be a pretty slow ballgame, it might come down to one of those role players continuing the contribution. I will take a look at the Louisiana Tech and Boise total pointing to the under due to previous comments on the Boise defense being super under-rated. They’re coming off a roady where they gave up 86 and 88 to end it, so with the break, I’m going to assume they’re going back to the fundamental basics of defense. Louisiana Tech’s offense really does not scare me, and they’ve been awful on the road at putting the ball in the hoop. Should get a higher intensity style ballgame than what both teams have been playing due to this being a conference setting. With that said, I’m not even going to touch it. In both meetings last year, the totals were lined at 148.5 and both teams attempted at least 60 shots in both games and neither went over the total. Not too much has changed, other than the resurgence of the Boise defense, but if last year’s games are any indication of how these teams want to play, you can argue your getting a free 8 points of value to the over this year. I tend to shy away from a majority of the Pac-10 conference matchups as it’s a conference I have not followed as closely over the course of the past few years. I would lean to UCLA, but status of Honeycutt is unknown. He’s pretty pivotal to what they do defensively, but not so much offensively. Could be a bad spot for Washington State with all the travel they have been doing and a flat spot after losing the title game. UCLA hasn’t been all that impressive against all this mid-major competition they’ve been playing lately, but these aren’t horrible mid-major squads, a bunch of them have some talent. UCLA won both matchups last year rather handily, and they’ve owned this series. The return of Shepp to the Fresno lineup pretty much negates all the negative things I’ve said about their guard play in the past as he has added some much-needed depth to the team. San Jose State has some decent wins on the road this year, but those came against teams with no familiarity and were out of conference. Familiarity angle should be in play here. I don’t value San Jose State all that high in the WAC, and actually have Fresno a few spots ahead of them. Opening conference play against a team that will get up and down that has an awful defense should add some confidence to a Fresno State teams that just recently got it’s Mr. Everything and important point guard back on the court. San Jose State was one of the better shooting teams in the country last year, but they lost all the shooters and the only thing they returned was their PG. Obviously, the offense has taken a step back, and one could argue the defense has improved, but when you’re almost dead last in the country on the defensive side of the ball, the only way to go is up. They’re young, and Fresno has big revenge from a game they only scored 45 points last year. Unlike their last time out against Pacific, this is one of those games where Fresno gets an opportunity to play their style of quantity over quality basketball, and they should be able to take advantage. Onto some Big Sky matchups, Montana should be the team to beat in the conference. They have what I would call a complete fit of a team with an experienced PG, some decent wings, and excellent post presences. They lost Anthony Johnson, who I believe went to the Globetrotters, and he was a pretty important part of their offense. As is the case with any team, you’ll obviously take a step back on the offensive side of things, and they have a bit. They’ve moved the ball inside quite a bit, primarily b/c they have two BIGS over the size of 6’11, while no other team in the conference has a post player that tall, let alone two of them. Northern Arizona is probably going to be a team that will improve a bit this year, but it will take a lot. They were mid-pack last year in the conference, but against the top two teams (Montana and Weber State), they lost the games by a combined margin of 93 points, so I don’t expect much improvement. Montana won both meetings last year pretty comfortably and rebounding and PG play were big factors. NAU returns both PG’s that saw time last year, so experience is an added factor, but the reason both got so much playing time was b/c neither could control the ball and limit turnovers, forcing both to play equal time...
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...I have Missouri State valued over Northern Iowa by a few spots in the MVC, but this early in the year, the game is pretty moot. Yes, it’s important for both teams, but anything inside of a possession, especially at Northern Iowa doesn’t really hold much value in my eyes. I’m trying to shy away from Illinois State this year, but this could be a good spot to play them. They’ve been getting key contributions from role players lately, and that’s something that wasn’t happening at the beginning of the year. Creighton really hasn’t came out on top of anybody decent that they have played and they weren’t all that great on the road last year in the conference + they’ll have McDermott coaching his first roady in the MVC. This should be a pretty slow ballgame, it might come down to one of those role players continuing the contribution. I will take a look at the Louisiana Tech and Boise total pointing to the under due to previous comments on the Boise defense being super under-rated. They’re coming off a roady where they gave up 86 and 88 to end it, so with the break, I’m going to assume they’re going back to the fundamental basics of defense. Louisiana Tech’s offense really does not scare me, and they’ve been awful on the road at putting the ball in the hoop. Should get a higher intensity style ballgame than what both teams have been playing due to this being a conference setting. With that said, I’m not even going to touch it. In both meetings last year, the totals were lined at 148.5 and both teams attempted at least 60 shots in both games and neither went over the total. Not too much has changed, other than the resurgence of the Boise defense, but if last year’s games are any indication of how these teams want to play, you can argue your getting a free 8 points of value to the over this year. I tend to shy away from a majority of the Pac-10 conference matchups as it’s a conference I have not followed as closely over the course of the past few years. I would lean to UCLA, but status of Honeycutt is unknown. He’s pretty pivotal to what they do defensively, but not so much offensively. Could be a bad spot for Washington State with all the travel they have been doing and a flat spot after losing the title game. UCLA hasn’t been all that impressive against all this mid-major competition they’ve been playing lately, but these aren’t horrible mid-major squads, a bunch of them have some talent. UCLA won both matchups last year rather handily, and they’ve owned this series. The return of Shepp to the Fresno lineup pretty much negates all the negative things I’ve said about their guard play in the past as he has added some much-needed depth to the team. San Jose State has some decent wins on the road this year, but those came against teams with no familiarity and were out of conference. Familiarity angle should be in play here. I don’t value San Jose State all that high in the WAC, and actually have Fresno a few spots ahead of them. Opening conference play against a team that will get up and down that has an awful defense should add some confidence to a Fresno State teams that just recently got it’s Mr. Everything and important point guard back on the court. San Jose State was one of the better shooting teams in the country last year, but they lost all the shooters and the only thing they returned was their PG. Obviously, the offense has taken a step back, and one could argue the defense has improved, but when you’re almost dead last in the country on the defensive side of the ball, the only way to go is up. They’re young, and Fresno has big revenge from a game they only scored 45 points last year. Unlike their last time out against Pacific, this is one of those games where Fresno gets an opportunity to play their style of quantity over quality basketball, and they should be able to take advantage. Onto some Big Sky matchups, Montana should be the team to beat in the conference. They have what I would call a complete fit of a team with an experienced PG, some decent wings, and excellent post presences. They lost Anthony Johnson, who I believe went to the Globetrotters, and he was a pretty important part of their offense. As is the case with any team, you’ll obviously take a step back on the offensive side of things, and they have a bit. They’ve moved the ball inside quite a bit, primarily b/c they have two BIGS over the size of 6’11, while no other team in the conference has a post player that tall, let alone two of them. Northern Arizona is probably going to be a team that will improve a bit this year, but it will take a lot. They were mid-pack last year in the conference, but against the top two teams (Montana and Weber State), they lost the games by a combined margin of 93 points, so I don’t expect much improvement. Montana won both meetings last year pretty comfortably and rebounding and PG play were big factors. NAU returns both PG’s that saw time last year, so experience is an added factor, but the reason both got so much playing time was b/c neither could control the ball and limit turnovers, forcing both to play equal time...
...I think they’ll be somewhat improved, but it’s got to be a major improvement and I can’t see it. With a lesser offense in Montana, and the tree’s inside, this is probably a pretty good spot for an under, especially with an earlier than normal tip-time. Both teams put up 141 and 148 in last year’s games that were lined in the 120’s. I don’t think this game gets out of the 50’s this year. Both teams play slow, added incentive for opening conference play, and some tough opportunities for NAU to score should keep this # low. The loss to PG Lillard for Weber State is a pretty big loss in terms of conference hopes. He was the conference MVP last year and one of the only key returners they had coming back. Montana State returns a bit and are 4-0 at home, although they haven’t beaten anybody worth mentioning. They are talented offensively, but lack a rebounding and inside threat. Sacramento State and Eastern Washington should be bottom feeders here. Last game on the card is probably my favorite. I’m a little scared of the current road trip, but I still see value in Northern Colorado. They’ve played awful on the road, but played some decent competition, while Portland State has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. I’m not really going to focus on defense in this matchup, as neither poses a threat, but moreso fade the worse defense and take the offense with more options. Last year, Northern Colorado was a team that was hard to prepare for b/c they used so many people within their offensive structure, but at the end of the day, the kid with the ball in his hands was Will Figures, who has since departed. This year, they return what I will term the big 3 in Beitzel, Kingman, and Kaba. All three can score from any spot on the floor, and were a big part of this team’s offense last year as they all touched the ball fairly equally despite having Figures on the squad. They play an up and down tempo, get quite a few shots up on a regular basis, and get quite a few points from turnovers and transition play. Portland State’s played probably at a mid-pace the last few years, yet still taken part in some high-scoring ballgames due to their horrendous defense. What’s even more shocking is that they nearly returned everyone last year and still could not defend. The offense took a step forward, which led to the high scoring affairs within the conference, but that was about it. Coming into this year, they return a bit, but were supposed to be helped greatly on the defensive end by the probably the biggest recruit in Big West in recent years in a top 10 center in the nation Caltado. I see nothing from him, so I assume he left or red-shirted, which leaves this team as an even worse defensive unit than before. This game will be up-tempo, and Northern Colorado should be able to get whatever shot they want, they just have to go in the bucket. The road trip is keeping me off of max-betting this conference play, I’ve had it circled for a while. If they get anything close to the 61 and 62 shots they attempted in last year’s meeting, I’ll like my chances.
Bets
Northern Colorado +1 (2 Units)
Fresno State ML -140 (1 Unit)
DNP: Northern Arizona/Montana Under 127.5, Northern Colorado/Portland State Over 147
GL
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...I think they’ll be somewhat improved, but it’s got to be a major improvement and I can’t see it. With a lesser offense in Montana, and the tree’s inside, this is probably a pretty good spot for an under, especially with an earlier than normal tip-time. Both teams put up 141 and 148 in last year’s games that were lined in the 120’s. I don’t think this game gets out of the 50’s this year. Both teams play slow, added incentive for opening conference play, and some tough opportunities for NAU to score should keep this # low. The loss to PG Lillard for Weber State is a pretty big loss in terms of conference hopes. He was the conference MVP last year and one of the only key returners they had coming back. Montana State returns a bit and are 4-0 at home, although they haven’t beaten anybody worth mentioning. They are talented offensively, but lack a rebounding and inside threat. Sacramento State and Eastern Washington should be bottom feeders here. Last game on the card is probably my favorite. I’m a little scared of the current road trip, but I still see value in Northern Colorado. They’ve played awful on the road, but played some decent competition, while Portland State has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. I’m not really going to focus on defense in this matchup, as neither poses a threat, but moreso fade the worse defense and take the offense with more options. Last year, Northern Colorado was a team that was hard to prepare for b/c they used so many people within their offensive structure, but at the end of the day, the kid with the ball in his hands was Will Figures, who has since departed. This year, they return what I will term the big 3 in Beitzel, Kingman, and Kaba. All three can score from any spot on the floor, and were a big part of this team’s offense last year as they all touched the ball fairly equally despite having Figures on the squad. They play an up and down tempo, get quite a few shots up on a regular basis, and get quite a few points from turnovers and transition play. Portland State’s played probably at a mid-pace the last few years, yet still taken part in some high-scoring ballgames due to their horrendous defense. What’s even more shocking is that they nearly returned everyone last year and still could not defend. The offense took a step forward, which led to the high scoring affairs within the conference, but that was about it. Coming into this year, they return a bit, but were supposed to be helped greatly on the defensive end by the probably the biggest recruit in Big West in recent years in a top 10 center in the nation Caltado. I see nothing from him, so I assume he left or red-shirted, which leaves this team as an even worse defensive unit than before. This game will be up-tempo, and Northern Colorado should be able to get whatever shot they want, they just have to go in the bucket. The road trip is keeping me off of max-betting this conference play, I’ve had it circled for a while. If they get anything close to the 61 and 62 shots they attempted in last year’s meeting, I’ll like my chances.
Bets
Northern Colorado +1 (2 Units)
Fresno State ML -140 (1 Unit)
DNP: Northern Arizona/Montana Under 127.5, Northern Colorado/Portland State Over 147
Gl buddy. Love the write-ups and is a MUST read everyday!
I think I like the Over147 in the NC/Portland St game more then NC and the points. NC really does miss the Point Guard play of Figures, but even more they miss the defense of Yonnish Bonner. I have said a couple times in other posts that Bietzel has been given too much to do by the new haed coach Hill. And it shows on defense (He trys hard but sucks on defense). Also, he is a great shooter, but terrible ball handler and passer. They have started getting Elliot Llyod more PG duties, but not enough.
I watched NC play DU and CSU year, and both games he was too sloppy with the ball and team couldn't defend anyone. They tend to stop moving their feet and reach. May be fatigue from all the traveling, I don't know, but that defense is terrible.
On the over side, I have only seen Portland St play once and like you said their defense is worse then NC's. However, the past couple years, Portland State plays NC well and match up pretty good against them.
I am gonna roll with the Over in this game, but the way NC defends and the way Bietzel turns the ball over, and a LONG tough road trip, not sure I can back the Bears here. I do think this is a good value play though. Kaba, Bietzel, and Kingman are sharp shooters and don't miss FT's.
Good Luck on the plays, I'll be rooting for ya!
Again, love what you do brother!
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Gl buddy. Love the write-ups and is a MUST read everyday!
I think I like the Over147 in the NC/Portland St game more then NC and the points. NC really does miss the Point Guard play of Figures, but even more they miss the defense of Yonnish Bonner. I have said a couple times in other posts that Bietzel has been given too much to do by the new haed coach Hill. And it shows on defense (He trys hard but sucks on defense). Also, he is a great shooter, but terrible ball handler and passer. They have started getting Elliot Llyod more PG duties, but not enough.
I watched NC play DU and CSU year, and both games he was too sloppy with the ball and team couldn't defend anyone. They tend to stop moving their feet and reach. May be fatigue from all the traveling, I don't know, but that defense is terrible.
On the over side, I have only seen Portland St play once and like you said their defense is worse then NC's. However, the past couple years, Portland State plays NC well and match up pretty good against them.
I am gonna roll with the Over in this game, but the way NC defends and the way Bietzel turns the ball over, and a LONG tough road trip, not sure I can back the Bears here. I do think this is a good value play though. Kaba, Bietzel, and Kingman are sharp shooters and don't miss FT's.
im doing good. been really busy and kind of been out of the loop so i spent a while reading through all your threads and got schooled up pretty quick. keep killing it!
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im doing good. been really busy and kind of been out of the loop so i spent a while reading through all your threads and got schooled up pretty quick. keep killing it!
Good pick 
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