12/15 Results: Pretty weird night of basketball w/ Greensboro hanging with Wake Forest (looks like they put too much focus on defense and it showed with their offense), and Santa Barbara beating UNLV.
Sides: 24-16, +11.60
Totals: 10-7, +1.00
DNP: 25-20
12/16 Conference Notes: Get some conference action today for a change of pace. I like Florida Atlantic in the Sun Belt as I have them tabbed in the upper half at the #4 slot. On a side note, I have Troy in the bottom cellar spot. The two teams have played similarly tough strength of schedules and Florida Atlantic has a .500 record while Troy hasn’t won a game against a Division 1 opponent. When comparing conference opponents, I have to look at the makeup of both teams coming into the year and compare them to current status and results. Jarvis has turned around a program despite having veteran leadership. He took a team that was comprised of freshman last year and played to a .500 season. All of these freshman return, and as I have stated before, the most notable difference in a college athlete is the improvement from the freshman year to the sophomore year so much is expected of the team this year. Coming in to the year, I was expecting Florida Atlantic to be a more up-tempo style squad considering they were a well-balanced offense with much athleticism especially at the guard positions with Taylor and Gantt in the backcourt. What I failed to realize is that the biggest profit of the freshman to sophomore turn-over would be on the defensive end. I also failed to realize that Taylor wouldn’t be one of the starting five this year, primarily due to his lack of height (he’s 5’6” but plays like he’s 6ft+). Playing as tough of schedule as they did, FAU had no room to feature two players in their backcourt under 6 feet tall, and they’ve been successful with it, most notably on the defensive end. Their perimeter defense was one of the worst in the country last year if I remember correctly, and it’s improved drastically. They’ve slowed things down this year. They’ve focused on correcting the weaknesses rather than going forth upon the strengths, which is what many of these smaller teams do, just to get through the conference season. On the flip side, Troy lost pretty much everyone, welcomed at least 10 new transfers into the program, and with that, you expect the opposite of what occurred with Florida Atlantic. FAU brought in freshman recruits, they bought into Jarvis’ system, and they are playing much better in year #2 both as a team and on the defensive side of the ball. Troy, on the other hand, are the most in-experienced team in the Sun Belt with all the newcomers. They are playing a faster up and down game due to bringing in new faces and a lack of talent (the whole quantity over quality thing is in play). The defense has been awful. Mid-level last year and bottom of the pile this year. Maestri is known for his pressure and constant switching of defenses, and on the offensive side of the ball, taking care of the basketball and getting up the best shot possible. With all the newcomers, they’ve yet to find their identity. This was expected coming into the year and it has yet to change, and will not change within the coming years. This is a program that will be as inconsistent as any until they can bring in four year players that make a difference under the current system under Maestri. Taking into account the direction that both programs are heading, the single most important factor that the game will be focused on that I see doesn’t really rely with matchups, but it will rely on how well FAU will take care of the basketball. And, as I have noted, FAU features a two-PG backcourt a majority of the time in Tucker and Taylor. They not only take care of the basketball, but they can score as well, and when you add Gantt in the mix, they can score from anywhere. When you have two point guards on the court against Troy’s constant pressure, you have an advantage. When you have two point guards on the court against the constant defensive switches Maestri will make, you have an advantage to realize and get in whatever set you need to. It’s a big advantage they’ll have in the Sun Belt all year long, not just tonight. FAU is a bit undersized, and that would normally make a difference in a bigger conference, but not in the Sun Belt. They have a pair of forwards who are 6’8” and I believe Royster was either up for consideration or was the defensive player of the year in the conference last year. Teams gameplan from going away from him in the paint, and Troy’s not built on doing so. Defense is the focus, and it’s the primary reason Taylor’s coming off the bench. The team is deep, has the better guards, and has the much better defense. These two teams split the home/away series last year. The game Troy won, they scored 86 points on 64% shooting and the 56 points they got from three seniors combined in that game are no longer accounted for. The game also features a emotion of sorts as Troy is coming off an OT loss at Mississippi State where it pretty much gave the game away, and they followed it up with a loss at Miami OH where they held a 9 point 2H lead late and gave it away. When you’re 1-7, you start being accustomed to the losing. I’m not going to flirt with laying points on the road in a conference game. I’d rather put one unit on the ML than risk two units laying the points. Troy’s had a few days of prep, but this team needs more than a few days. I don’t put too much stock in the Siena loss b/c the conference season is what you prepare for. Slightly worried about road trip length, but not enough to keep me from betting it.
Be back with non-conference…
Bets
Florida Atlantic ML -190 (1 Unit)
DNP: None (YET)
GL
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