Posted:
#551
keep up the good work man I always check out what you have to day daily ; i have no idea how you know all of it; but its great info; thnaks
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December Hoops
Posted:
#554
12/17 Results: Time shortage...
Sides: 25-16, +12.60
Totals: 13-7, +4.00
DNP: 25-22
12/18 Notes: Not much time on the weekends to write-up. Try some one-liners, but much can be taken from previous repeated posts on some of these teams. I lost value with the Depaul game. If I think Wisconsin MKE is a better team than Loyola CHI, then I can't lay the chalk on the road there. Illinois should wax UIC. However, I witnessed Illinois and Gonzaga in person a few years back at the United Center and it was horrific. Regardless, I'm not sure where UIC gets there points in this one. Kreps will struggle to score regardless of who's guarding him, my gut says Richmond is on him and that's mismatch of the year potential. Northern Illinois team total under 40. Midd Tenn State was on the road for three and dropped a conference home game in good fashion and has Vandy on deck. Evansville home for a bit and strong revenge from a game that was played earlier this year where they saw foul trouble and a huge descrepancy at the foul line. The bigger part in question is that they played at Butler the game following the earlier mismatch so it was technically a lookahead game and they got caught napping as they took care of business AT Butler the following game. They had a letdown at Air Force the following game, and weren't expected to compete with UNC the next game, so their best shot will be given in this one I think. Florida matches up decent and has a chance to get the Ohio State loss of their back. Think this one's a neutral in Florida, too. Mississippi State first true road game and they have been a totally different team on the road the past few years than they have been at home. They'll struggle slowing it down as well. This will be their toughest team they play this year so far as well. Slight value with UCLA. Howland's pretty good at shutting opposing stars down, and I like Lee being on him defending here. Also got a big advantage in the frontcourt + depth. Cleveland State's had this date with West Virginia circled on their calendar since the summer. They're 12-0 without their best defensive player, really wish D'Aundray Brown was playing today, but I can't find anything. He's due back anytime soon. No interest in backing Detroit with very little depth and the tail end of a roadtrip of the Western/Eastern/Central series coming off an overtime game against a lesser squad. They've looked awful on this trip. They don't play enough people for trips like this. Cincinnati first true road game if you throw out Toledo. I like UC Irvine's guards against Pepperdine's helter-skelter approach.
Waiting on Totals for a bunch...
Bets
Evansville -5.5 (2 Units)
Central Michigan -1 (1 Unit)
Florida +1 (1 Unit)
DNP: UCLA +6.5, Oklahoma +7
GL
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Posted:
#557
All due, nropp, and I have blindly tailed but I gotta disagree abut the CMU game. Not about the travel angle - that is a good angle and you are dead right, but they haven't looked awful - they have just shot poorly. They got to the line 20 more times than Eastern who is equally craptastic in allowing that kind of bahavior as is CMU. I expect a similar FT disparity today. if Detroit shoots their average
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
0
Posted:
#561
Mississippi State
first true road game and they have been a totally different team on the
road the past few years than they have been at home.
Hey NRopp. Just a heads up. The Mississippi State/VT and Richmond/GT games are part of a doubleheader being played at the Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas so it's not a true road game for MSU.
Hey NRopp. Just a heads up. The Mississippi State/VT and Richmond/GT games are part of a doubleheader being played at the Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas so it's not a true road game for MSU.
0
Posted:
#564
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:
All due, nropp, and I have blindly tailed but I gotta disagree abut the CMU game. Not about the travel angle - that is a good angle and you are dead right, but they haven't looked awful - they have just shot poorly. They got to the line 20 more times than Eastern who is equally craptastic in allowing that kind of bahavior as is CMU. I expect a similar FT disparity today. if Detroit shoots their average
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
All due, nropp, and I have blindly tailed but I gotta disagree abut the CMU game. Not about the travel angle - that is a good angle and you are dead right, but they haven't looked awful - they have just shot poorly. They got to the line 20 more times than Eastern who is equally craptastic in allowing that kind of bahavior as is CMU. I expect a similar FT disparity today. if Detroit shoots their average
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
You point out some pretty good arguments, but my whole basis of the starters playing 30+ minutes of a game and being the 3rd game of this road trip pretty much sum up the fact of fading those stats not returning to the mean in this instance. Tired legs = dead shooting, slow defense, bad FT shooting. I'm just playing the angle, but the angle itself looks to fade normal shooting percentages, etc...Stats mean nothing in this spot.
GL
0
Posted:
#565
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:
All due, nropp, and I have blindly tailed but I gotta disagree abut the CMU game. Not about the travel angle - that is a good angle and you are dead right, but they haven't looked awful - they have just shot poorly. They got to the line 20 more times than Eastern who is equally craptastic in allowing that kind of bahavior as is CMU. I expect a similar FT disparity today. if Detroit shoots their average
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
All due, nropp, and I have blindly tailed but I gotta disagree abut the CMU game. Not about the travel angle - that is a good angle and you are dead right, but they haven't looked awful - they have just shot poorly. They got to the line 20 more times than Eastern who is equally craptastic in allowing that kind of bahavior as is CMU. I expect a similar FT disparity today. if Detroit shoots their average
Maybe you can help me here - I do not believe I can CAP shooting percentages - they will always regress to the mean right? What I can cap is things like number of possessions each team will get, turnovers, rebounds and situations. Am I in error?
In this game, I expect Detroit to win the rebounding battle, pull down 5-7 more offensive boards, with CMU winning the TO battle by 2-3. The difference will come towards the end of the game when CMU's 7 man rotation starts to get in foul trouble and has to play timid defense, and Detroit will open up a lead if they shoot their normal 65% from the stripe.
Shooting poorly could be dependent on the road trip and playing so many minutes. Not saying it's going to continue today, but it could be a factor in the poor play on the trip, which is what I meant by looking "awful".
0
Posted:
#566
Quote Originally Posted by bburgessl:
nropp11, hey do you ever reccommend doing a regular teaser when you have 2 + plays
thanks,, love your writeup s
nropp11, hey do you ever reccommend doing a regular teaser when you have 2 + plays
thanks,, love your writeup s
Maybe in football moving across key #'s, but not in basketball. When you're teasing 6 or 8 points, that is only a matter of a few possessions. I don't find much value in doing so. That's just me though.
0
Posted:
#568
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
Mississippi State first true road game and they have been a totally different team on the road the past few years than they have been at home.
Hey NRopp. Just a heads up. The Mississippi State/VT and Richmond/GT games are part of a doubleheader being played at the Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas so it's not a true road game for MSU.
Mississippi State first true road game and they have been a totally different team on the road the past few years than they have been at home.
Hey NRopp. Just a heads up. The Mississippi State/VT and Richmond/GT games are part of a doubleheader being played at the Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas so it's not a true road game for MSU.
Good call. Shows you how much time I spent on these games.
0
Posted:
#571
What do you think about murray st. vs WKU? I'm liking Murray to win this game in a good spot. I watched WKU a bit and they have looked awful. No offensive flow whatsoever and Pattillo the OU transfer has been a TO machine. Murray has seemed to press offensively and just not hitting shots but their defense should be more than enough in a revenge spot. Thinking about Murray ML at home.
0
Posted:
#572
12/18 Notes: Total Additions...just looking to survive, hate Saturday's.
Bets
Evansville -5.5 (2 Units)
Central Michigan -1 (1 Unit)
Florida +1 (1 Unit)
NIU/Temple Under 134 (1 Unit)
Texas/UNC Over 148 (1 Unit)
Cal Poly SLO/California Over 121.5 (1 Unit)
Texas Tech/UTEP Under 154 (1 Unit)
DNP: UCLA +6.5, Oklahoma +7, USC/Kansas Under 139, Arkansas/Texas A&M Over 132, Ohio/St. Bonaventure Over 136.5, UC Irvine/Pepperdine Over 144, Western Carolina/Dayton Under 133, Iona/Syracuse Under 144
GL
0
Posted:
#573
Quote Originally Posted by xxgambler:
What do you think about murray st. vs WKU? I'm liking Murray to win this game in a good spot. I watched WKU a bit and they have looked awful. No offensive flow whatsoever and Pattillo the OU transfer has been a TO machine. Murray has seemed to press offensively and just not hitting shots but their defense should be more than enough in a revenge spot. Thinking about Murray ML at home.
What do you think about murray st. vs WKU? I'm liking Murray to win this game in a good spot. I watched WKU a bit and they have looked awful. No offensive flow whatsoever and Pattillo the OU transfer has been a TO machine. Murray has seemed to press offensively and just not hitting shots but their defense should be more than enough in a revenge spot. Thinking about Murray ML at home.
I think they win. Team hasn't been playing as well as they could be. Nice revenge spot. Not impressed with WKU at all this year, especially on the road.
GL
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