Posted:
#476
like wright st
0
December Hoops
Posted:
#479
Hey NRopp.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
0
Posted:
#483
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
Hey NRopp.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
Hey NRopp.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
Thought he was trying to say that all Denver does is shoot 3 pters and hits a high % of them. Wyoming has not done a good job of guarding the perimeter thus far (they give up a lot of 3 pts attempted and a high % of them go in). You're right thought that Wyoming should get to the line a whole bunch.
0
Posted:
#488
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
...I’m going to play Denver although I lost a few points from the opener, but they have a decent shot at winning outright here. To add on to the thoughts from yesterday’s notes, this is the lowest total in the series in quite some time, which really shows the decline in offense on Wyoming’s side of the ball, along with Denver’s pace this year. Wyoming is just too inconsistent to trust in any spot, let alone in a spot where they’ll take a maximum of 40 shots from the field. For a smaller school, their travel has been pretty heavy early in the year with trips to Mexico, South Dakota, then back home, then out to California, now back home again. It’s really a play on discipline more than anything. Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate, they commit fouls at an alarming rate, they rebound horribly. The team is built to get out and run, quantity over quality style. They’re ineffective on offense. They shoot the three-pointer almost worse than any team in the country, and if you can’t hit your three’s, then you’re going to have trouble scoring on Denver. It baffles me how many they shoot, and continue to shoot with awful shot selection despite having a low percentage. It shows a concern for discipline. What’s even more baffling is they return quite a few minutes from last years team and not a single player has shown improvement. Denver returns quite a bit too from the squad that won this matchup last year. 2-8 to start the year, but a respectable jump in schedule strength for a team that was 19-13 and finished in the upper half of the Sun Belt. I’m going against revenge here and against a game that saw 91 free throws last year, but Wyoming committing 34 fouls in last year’s meeting just goes to show how out of whack this team is at playing this slow of a ballgame. Should be a winnable spot. One more thing on discipline and the quantity over quality issue. Wyoming’s top 3 scorers = 28 assists, 68 turnovers.
...I’m going to play Denver although I lost a few points from the opener, but they have a decent shot at winning outright here. To add on to the thoughts from yesterday’s notes, this is the lowest total in the series in quite some time, which really shows the decline in offense on Wyoming’s side of the ball, along with Denver’s pace this year. Wyoming is just too inconsistent to trust in any spot, let alone in a spot where they’ll take a maximum of 40 shots from the field. For a smaller school, their travel has been pretty heavy early in the year with trips to Mexico, South Dakota, then back home, then out to California, now back home again. It’s really a play on discipline more than anything. Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate, they commit fouls at an alarming rate, they rebound horribly. The team is built to get out and run, quantity over quality style. They’re ineffective on offense. They shoot the three-pointer almost worse than any team in the country, and if you can’t hit your three’s, then you’re going to have trouble scoring on Denver. It baffles me how many they shoot, and continue to shoot with awful shot selection despite having a low percentage. It shows a concern for discipline. What’s even more baffling is they return quite a few minutes from last years team and not a single player has shown improvement. Denver returns quite a bit too from the squad that won this matchup last year. 2-8 to start the year, but a respectable jump in schedule strength for a team that was 19-13 and finished in the upper half of the Sun Belt. I’m going against revenge here and against a game that saw 91 free throws last year, but Wyoming committing 34 fouls in last year’s meeting just goes to show how out of whack this team is at playing this slow of a ballgame. Should be a winnable spot. One more thing on discipline and the quantity over quality issue. Wyoming’s top 3 scorers = 28 assists, 68 turnovers.
Santa Clara and Pacific have played enough meetings over the years, a majority of them close, to be familiar with each other. I actually project Santa Clara to make some noise in the WCC so I’m going to take a shot here even out of conference with a bit of value. Pacific has been far from impressive even in it’s wins and neither has Santa Clara. The difference, which might actually be a problem for Santa Clara, is that they have so many experienced people to play that their rotation is almost sometimes too big and they lack chemistry. There is eight players on the roster who started at least ten games last year (primarily due to injuries at just about every position). One of those injuries was to Kevin Foster, a major part of this team. The really odd part is that Santa Clara lost by 27 with him on the court in one of last year’s meetings, and won without him by a point in the other meeting. The one thing going in Santa Clara’s favor here is that they’ll be fresh the entire game with the amount of people they play on a given night, which is exactly what you need to combat Pacific’s style of offense that wears you down on a consistent basis. Pacific is another one of those slow it down style of teams who like to wear your defense down which leads to easy buckets, but as I stated, they’ve been terribly inefficient. Santa Clara is really the type of team that Pacific’s slow style isn’t really going to bother. They play enough people, and those people know their roles. Their bigs block shots well, they rebound well, and they draw fouls well. Their wings aside from Foster are in the game to penetrate and kick it back out or penetrate and draw a foul. The players know their roles and they are consistent with it. I am a little worried about a non-existent offensive post presence being a factor against Pacific, but I would be more worried if I was backing a squad that consistently shoots three-pointers and doesn’t get to the hoop and draw fouls, which goes against the fundamentals of Santa Clara’s makeup. If they settle for three’s, which they have shown very little of outside Foster, they don’t have a chance here. If they continue to get to the line, and continue to stick to their style of play, they have a good shot. They’re coming off their first road win here so a little confidence should help. Sam Willard will get his points in the paint, but this group of guards from Santa Clara can defend, and defend well. It’s a pretty big game for both teams, and a lot will be learned for the rest of the year with this game. I think the 11 is short on Oakland. Tennessee matches up really well. If I had to pick one game out of the schedule for the year with Oakland that they don’t match up well with, it’s this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if they hang close, it’s just a bad matchup for them. If they can play into the 140’s with defensive Purdue, Wright State, and Michigan State, then they can sure play into the 150’s with Tennessee here, right? I don’t think so. Tennessee’s a different breed than all those teams and I think Oakland struggles to score against a horrendous matchup against a team who brings the same length they do. Take away Oakland’s advantage here and they struggle. It’s a defensive nightmare for both teams. Both like to push, both like to play up-tempo, so it’s a bit scary, but strength for strength, these teams are identical. Win or lose, still my team come March (as long as they don’t draw Tennessee first round). Liked way too much today, avoid the bloodbath.
Bets
Denver +5 (2 Units)
Oakland/Tennessee Under 151.5 (2 Units)
DNP: Wright State PK, Santa Clara +6.5, Wisconsin MKE +1.5
GL
I'm assuming who didn't expect EVERYTHING to go in for both teams. Holy shit these guys are on fire. From the line, from three, and that lurpy fuck from oakland is gonna hit his career high in the first half. I'm pretty sure his eyes were closed on the three that beat the shot clock
0
Posted:
#490
Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
Denver averages 19rpg while their opponents average 28.2rpg for a rebound margin of -9.2...
Denver got out-rebounded 16 to 4 in the 1st half and are currently getting jobbed on the glass 23 to 9 with 6min remaining. Get em tomorrow bud...Denver averages 19rpg while their opponents average 28.2rpg for a rebound margin of -9.2...
The only team they out-rebounded this season was Alcorn St by just 2 rbs. BOL bro but im against you on this one...
0
Posted:
#491
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
Hey NRopp.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
Hey NRopp.
Excellent read as always. I'm a bit confused about things you wrote on Denver/Wyoming. I am on the other side and one factor that put me on the Pokes is contrary to what you wrote. It is Denver that fouls at an alarming rate and not Wyoming. In fact, Denver has the worst FTA/FGA ratio in the entire country. Meanwhile. Wyoming is athletic and gets to the line with a FTA/FGA ratio that ranks 40th nationally on offense. In last year's matchup, Wyoming had an incredible FT rate of 118.6 which was one of the highest for any game in the country last year. To me, this is a huge advantage for the Pokes. In addition, you state that Wyoming is a horrible reading team yet they are a better rebounding team than Denver. In fact, Denver ranks dead last in the country in Offensive Rebounding %. You also state Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate yet their turnover percentage is better than Denver's. We go back a long way so I know you know I'm not bashing rather engaging in healthy debate. I could very well be wrong, but am just sharing my analysis of the same factors you discussed. Best of luck and keep up the great work.
Nice call. I was basing the fade on Wyoming's composite of this year and last along with SOS, due to the similarities. Wasn't really comparing School A to School B.
0
Posted:
#492
Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
Denver averages 19rpg while their opponents average 28.2rpg for a rebound margin of -9.2...
Denver averages 19rpg while their opponents average 28.2rpg for a rebound margin of -9.2...
The only team they out-rebounded this season was Alcorn St by just 2 rbs. BOL bro but im against you on this one...
Nice call tonight. Unfortunately, the rebounding margin is attributed to their style of play and really doesn't mean anything to me. All the slower pace teams will be towards the bottom in rebounding margin. When you only allow 39-40 shots a game, you are more than likely going to get out-rebounded.
0
Posted:
#494
12/14 Results: First bloodbath of this young season, there will be more. There is a positive; I could’ve had Depaul, too. Oakland with a nice win, that wasn’t really the defensive intensity I was expecting to get from Tennessee.
Sides: 24-16, +11.60
Totals: 10-7, +1.00
DNP: 24-20
12/15 Notes: Both Greensboro and Wake Forest are near the top of College basketball in terms of pace and both coaches like to get up and down. The game also features two teams that really play zero defense. UNCG is putting up 59 shots a game, and they’ve attempted over 70 shots twice this year in a game. Wake’s gone over 60 only twice, which really points out the obvious, Wake is more efficiently offensively. The lowest point total UNCG has given up this year is 81. Here is the breakdown of their games along with the pace:
20 Pace = 155 points (against the #10 defense)
244 Pace = 149 points
282 Pace = 162 points
50 Pace = 152 points
195 Pace = 134 points
232 Pace = 162 points
53 Pace = 170 points (against the #1 defense)
117 Pace = 187 points
Wake Forest Pace is 23, defense is #229. On the flip side, here is a breakdown of Wake’s opponent pace and total points:
272 Pace = 150 points
241 Pace = 139 points
181 Pace = 149 points
119 Pace = 149 points (Marist)
243 Pace = 157 points
112 Pace = 159 points
117 Pace = 159 points
287 Pace = 119 points
121 Pace = 168 points
Every game Wake has played with a top 50 pace has gone over the listed total aside from the Marist game and that was on a day when both teams were playing back-to-back, and Wake was coming off a physical defensive ballclub in Winthrop. UNC Greensboro comes in with a 29 Pace rating. Total looks pretty good given the figures, but Wake’s going with a defensive unit to start the ballgame tonight. Bzdelik’s benching two of his leading scorers and the main reason is defense. They had a two-hour practice on Monday that didn’t involve touching the basketball once. Combine that with the ineffective offense of UNCG and the total might be a tad bit too high. Offensive starting squad allowed 45 to Wilmington in the first half the other night, and the Defensive starters in the 2H allowed 36. Got a Wake team here coming off a loss to UNC-Wilmington, with lineup changes, and with a more defensive-minded starting lineup, and should be at full focus. I still think there will be plenty points, but factor in these things along with a lesser Wake offense and less chemistry, and it could be a slow start to the game. Not much I liked today..
Bets: None
DNP: UNC-Greensboro/Wake Forest Under 159.5
GL
0
Posted:
#496
I'm liking Minnesota here -14.5. They don't have another game for 8 days and it'll be interesting to see how the Akron boys handle walking around that cold ass part of the country. I can just hear them saying... "let's get this game over with and get out of this cold shit." My son, who lives in the Twin Cities, got to know KG a few years ago and asked if the weather affects teams from warmer climates. He told him it does because they come there in the dead of winter with a bad attitude and just want to get the game over with and the hell out of Minnesota!
0
Posted:
#498
Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:
I'm liking Minnesota here -14.5. They don't have another game for 8 days and it'll be interesting to see how the Akron boys handle walking around that cold ass part of the country. I can just hear them saying... "let's get this game over with and get out of this cold shit." My son, who lives in the Twin Cities, got to know KG a few years ago and asked if the weather affects teams from warmer climates. He told him it does because they come there in the dead of winter with a bad attitude and just want to get the game over with and the hell out of Minnesota!
I'm liking Minnesota here -14.5. They don't have another game for 8 days and it'll be interesting to see how the Akron boys handle walking around that cold ass part of the country. I can just hear them saying... "let's get this game over with and get out of this cold shit." My son, who lives in the Twin Cities, got to know KG a few years ago and asked if the weather affects teams from warmer climates. He told him it does because they come there in the dead of winter with a bad attitude and just want to get the game over with and the hell out of Minnesota!
Ohio's weather is not much better..
0
Posted:
#499
Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:
I'm liking Minnesota here -14.5. They don't have another game for 8 days and it'll be interesting to see how the Akron boys handle walking around that cold ass part of the country. I can just hear them saying... "let's get this game over with and get out of this cold shit." My son, who lives in the Twin Cities, got to know KG a few years ago and asked if the weather affects teams from warmer climates. He told him it does because they come there in the dead of winter with a bad attitude and just want to get the game over with and the hell out of Minnesota!
I'm liking Minnesota here -14.5. They don't have another game for 8 days and it'll be interesting to see how the Akron boys handle walking around that cold ass part of the country. I can just hear them saying... "let's get this game over with and get out of this cold shit." My son, who lives in the Twin Cities, got to know KG a few years ago and asked if the weather affects teams from warmer climates. He told him it does because they come there in the dead of winter with a bad attitude and just want to get the game over with and the hell out of Minnesota!
There is not a whole lot of difference in weather between these places. And they dont play out doors.
0
Hot Forum Topics
