Posted:
#451
Thanks Nropp 
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December Hoops
Posted:
#452
12/14 Notes: Projections Only...
Wright St. -2
Central Michigan +2
Illinois-Chicago -2
Northern Ill +2
Wis.-Milwaukee -4
DePaul +4
Drexel +14
Louisville -14
Denver +6
Wyoming -6
UC Riverside +21
St. Mary's -21
Santa Clara +3
Pacific -3
Georgia Southern +26
Cincinnati -26
Oakland +15
Tennessee -15
Central Michigan has been awful. Their wins come UIC and Fullerton. Wright State has played a much tougher schedule with their losses coming to formidable ball clubs. Central Michigan may have the best player on the court in Ziegler, but I give a slight advantage to the backcourt of Wright State in terms of both offensive and defensive prowess. Duggins and Evans is about as solid of a defensive backcourt you’ll find in the game, and they both can score too. Central Michigan playing with revenge, but I don’t know if that qualifies here as they lost two 1,000 point scorers in their guards. Enjoy the toilet bowl in UIC and Northern Illinois, I won’t be touching it. I actually feel bad for members of the Big East who have to play Depaul and get a decline in their RPI for a conference game. The fact that they were dogged to a MAC squad really sums it up. Louisville will be playing their 9th straight game at home to open the season. We probably won’t learn much about this Louisville squad until they hit the road. Drexel begins a three-game roady that begins with Louisville and ends with Syracuse. Wyoming has revenge on Denver from an extremely high scoring ballgame for Denver last year in an 80-77 victory. Wyoming only attempted 43 shots in that game along with only attempting three from long distance. There was 66 fouls called and 96 free throws attempted in last year’s meeting. This game this year will probably be closer to the 2008 meeting, a total that landed on 116 with Wyoming, again only attempting 42 shots. I hate going against Denver b/c opponents are only putting up 39 shots a game. You have to be extremely patient to go the course of a game and not fire up shots. Wyoming has some experience coming back to combat the different style, but they are awful from the three-point line and continue to shoot them, just like last year. If you look at Denver’s four recent losses, they come against teams who shoot the three-ball extremely well and if you combine them, those teams shot 50% from deep in those games. Don’t expect Wyoming to continue that trend. Riverside’s basically been on the road since early November aside from a few scrimmages at home. Santa Clara is on the road for the second straight game and these two teams played each other twice last year to a split, so there is some familiarity there. Pacific use to be the ideal team in the country for getting good looks at the basket at converting those opportunities, but their offense has been pretty bad both this year and last year. Along with that, they still pose a threat with a great PG and a decent big man. They take care of the ball extremely well and while they are putting up many shots, they simply aren’t falling. They should start to fall at any moment. This is a pretty good matchup for Santa Clara. They’re lengthier, and feature a team with much experience with a greater majority of these players competing in both Pacific games last year. Georgia Southern is awful. How about Oakland? Play Illinois tough, then play to within a point of Michigan State over the weekend? Mentioned it a week ago, this Oakland team will get my investment come tournament time. They’ve played the #28 Strength of Schedule and still have Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio State left on this road trip. The team, however, is probably not in a good spot against Tennessee matchup-wise. I think they can still hang with them, but length and quickness are also two things Tennessee brings to the table, so I won’t touch this one. Probably won’t touch Oakland all year, but come March, they’ll be high on my priority list.
GL
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Posted:
#457
"Pacific use to be
the ideal team in the country for getting good looks at the basket at
converting those opportunities, but their offense has been pretty bad
both this year and last year. Along with that, they still pose a threat
with a great PG and a decent big man. They take care of the ball
extremely well and while they are putting up many shots, they simply
aren’t falling. They should start to fall at any moment."
DO THEY HAVE A NEW COACH?
DO THEY HAVE A NEW COACH?
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Posted:
#464
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Morning nropp,
So will Whisky- Mil be a play for you tonight?
RT2
Morning nropp,
So will Whisky- Mil be a play for you tonight?
RT2
You're on the right side I think, I lean that way only.. I spent enough time looking at this game the past few days that I could tell you what kind of gum each of the assistant coaches chews on a daily basis between the hours of 4pm and 6pm. And the only thing to come out of it was a scheduled visit to the psychiatrist tommorow morning.
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Posted:
#465
12/13 Results: LSU drops a home game to Coastal Carolina. Siena finally gets a home win. The loss for Florida Atlantic really doesn’t mean much from a value standpoint as they kick off conference play on Thursday. I think I mentioned it yesterday, when dealing with these small schools that play non-conference road games before conference play, you have to take it into account that conference play is beginning. The coaches would rather be healthy and fresh going into conference play than burnt out and wore out. In football, every game means something. In basketball, that isn’t the case. The more important thing for any team in the Sun Belt and these smaller teams is the conference title. I’m not saying that they go out there and try to lose or give games away, but the urgency might not be there. Not saying it happens all the time, but if I’m coaching one of these smaller teams, that’s my mindset. Wisconsin under cashed despite Wisconsin shooting extremely well. I’m sort of disappointed the whole GB/MKE/Wisconsin/Marquette circus is over for the year despite the two conference games that remain. It was a pretty successful matchup angle for the last few weeks. And Youngstown State currently has a winning record. Probably the last time you hear that this year, LOL.
Sides: 24-15, +13.80
Totals: 10-6, +3.20
DNP: 23-18
12/14 Notes Cont’d: Try to add on some of yesterday’s thoughts about today. Wright State and Central Michigan should be a pretty good guard-oriented type of game. Both teams look to start 3 or 4 guards. Wright State just recently went to this look to actually force a faster pace. The only downside to going to the four guard lineup is that they’re a ton smaller. Both teams start four seniors and a freshman, but Wright State has the experience factor as their seniors have been playing for a few years now. Wright State’s focus has always been on defense, but it hasn’t been this year. They have put a little more focus on their offense, which has allowed their defense to take a step down. Coach Donlon has stressed the importance of defense to his kids most of the past week, and it’s showed in their two recent wins. Based on principles, not statistics, Wright State’s defense is similar to that of LSU’s system and CMU put up 55 on them. LSU has a bit more size, so I expect a little bit better output from CMU, especially at home. It should be a good ballgame. I think the right team is favored, but it’s going to be close. As for the total, I think with Wright State going to the four guard lineup, we should see some more scoring even with their good defense. As small as they are, they will give up second opportunities on the offensive glass to taller teams like CMU, and they will score more on the offensive end with a four-guard set...
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Posted:
#466
...UIC at Northern, flip a coin. The only Horizon team Depaul should be favored over is Youngstown State. I really can’t justify Depaul being a PK against Ball State and a -3.5 against CMU, who both play in a weaker division in the MAC, and then being a favorite here against a more quality team with better guards than both the squads mentioned before, and coming off an overtime loss, with very low attendance, with very un-skilled players, with a rivalry game on deck, with a team that’s trailed in 6 out of the 9 games its played at half, with a team that’s been outrebounded in 8 of the 9 games it’s played, and with a team that’s defense is allowing opponents to shoot greater than 40% in 8 of the 9 games its played. Granted, the Ball State game wasn’t a true home game as it wasn’t played in Allstate, but this line baffles me to the point that I’m just going to mention the obvious and leave it alone. They welcome Loyola CHI on Saturday, and if they’re favored here, they’re probably a favorite in that one too (MKE more value than Loyola in my opinion in Horizon) in what might be a better spot to play. I will stop. No, I can’t stop yet. Depaul is the worst major conference team in the country in every ranking available. Purnell, former coach at Clemson relies on the three-point ball. His Clemson teams always have. It just so happens its not working at Depaul. They’re shooting 23%, that’s good for 341st in the country and the lighting at Allstate Arena isn’t going to help that trend. Depaul is struggling to find its identity. They have no identity. The students are gone from break already. Statistically, this is the 2nd toughest game Depaul will play this year thus far. The first was the loss against Oklahoma State. Wisconsin MKE has been inconsistent, I don’t care. They take care of the ball a lot better and that’s all you need to do against Depaul’s press. They have an experienced backcourt to take care of business. I literally spent hours on this game, I have seen video, I know entirely way too much about Depaul. This game drove me to the point of screaming to the top of my lungs “why”. Part of me thinks I’m missing a really really good opportunity for MKE here, but I’m going to hope for yet again a puzzling line on Saturday when Loyola CHI comes in with revenge. I’ll hope that Depaul plays their best game of the year tonight which adds value on Saturday. Ok, Done with the rant. Ok, one more thing. If Boyle was showing flashes of his past self then I’d play this in a heartbeat, but he’s taken a step back with the injury he incurred last year. Done. Gotta move on. Drexel can’t play a fast pace and score. They rely on the half-court setting and have for years. Against the bigger schools that like to run in past years they haven’t scored above 60 and a majority of those games have come in the 40’s. This really should be an eye-opener for Drexel assuming Louisville shows up to take care of business. Drexel’s loss of the only PG on the roster Harris due to robbery and gun possession in the summer hasn’t really showed an effect on the team quite yet b/c the entire year has been played in the half-court. This team was 300+ in offensive efficiency last year, and this year they’re at or near 100. They’ve hit their ceiling, the # should drop tremendously and with that, you find value...
0
Posted:
#467
...I’m going to play Denver although I lost a few points from the opener, but they have a decent shot at winning outright here. To add on to the thoughts from yesterday’s notes, this is the lowest total in the series in quite some time, which really shows the decline in offense on Wyoming’s side of the ball, along with Denver’s pace this year. Wyoming is just too inconsistent to trust in any spot, let alone in a spot where they’ll take a maximum of 40 shots from the field. For a smaller school, their travel has been pretty heavy early in the year with trips to Mexico, South Dakota, then back home, then out to California, now back home again. It’s really a play on discipline more than anything. Wyoming turns the ball over at an alarming rate, they commit fouls at an alarming rate, they rebound horribly. The team is built to get out and run, quantity over quality style. They’re ineffective on offense. They shoot the three-pointer almost worse than any team in the country, and if you can’t hit your three’s, then you’re going to have trouble scoring on Denver. It baffles me how many they shoot, and continue to shoot with awful shot selection despite having a low percentage. It shows a concern for discipline. What’s even more baffling is they return quite a few minutes from last years team and not a single player has shown improvement. Denver returns quite a bit too from the squad that won this matchup last year. 2-8 to start the year, but a respectable jump in schedule strength for a team that was 19-13 and finished in the upper half of the Sun Belt. I’m going against revenge here and against a game that saw 91 free throws last year, but Wyoming committing 34 fouls in last year’s meeting just goes to show how out of whack this team is at playing this slow of a ballgame. Should be a winnable spot. One more thing on discipline and the quantity over quality issue. Wyoming’s top 3 scorers = 28 assists, 68 turnovers.
Santa Clara and Pacific have played enough meetings over the years, a majority of them close, to be familiar with each other. I actually project Santa Clara to make some noise in the WCC so I’m going to take a shot here even out of conference with a bit of value. Pacific has been far from impressive even in it’s wins and neither has Santa Clara. The difference, which might actually be a problem for Santa Clara, is that they have so many experienced people to play that their rotation is almost sometimes too big and they lack chemistry. There is eight players on the roster who started at least ten games last year (primarily due to injuries at just about every position). One of those injuries was to Kevin Foster, a major part of this team. The really odd part is that Santa Clara lost by 27 with him on the court in one of last year’s meetings, and won without him by a point in the other meeting. The one thing going in Santa Clara’s favor here is that they’ll be fresh the entire game with the amount of people they play on a given night, which is exactly what you need to combat Pacific’s style of offense that wears you down on a consistent basis. Pacific is another one of those slow it down style of teams who like to wear your defense down which leads to easy buckets, but as I stated, they’ve been terribly inefficient. Santa Clara is really the type of team that Pacific’s slow style isn’t really going to bother. They play enough people, and those people know their roles. Their bigs block shots well, they rebound well, and they draw fouls well. Their wings aside from Foster are in the game to penetrate and kick it back out or penetrate and draw a foul. The players know their roles and they are consistent with it. I am a little worried about a non-existent offensive post presence being a factor against Pacific, but I would be more worried if I was backing a squad that consistently shoots three-pointers and doesn’t get to the hoop and draw fouls, which goes against the fundamentals of Santa Clara’s makeup. If they settle for three’s, which they have shown very little of outside Foster, they don’t have a chance here. If they continue to get to the line, and continue to stick to their style of play, they have a good shot. They’re coming off their first road win here so a little confidence should help. Sam Willard will get his points in the paint, but this group of guards from Santa Clara can defend, and defend well. It’s a pretty big game for both teams, and a lot will be learned for the rest of the year with this game. I think the 11 is short on Oakland. Tennessee matches up really well. If I had to pick one game out of the schedule for the year with Oakland that they don’t match up well with, it’s this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if they hang close, it’s just a bad matchup for them. If they can play into the 140’s with defensive Purdue, Wright State, and Michigan State, then they can sure play into the 150’s with Tennessee here, right? I don’t think so. Tennessee’s a different breed than all those teams and I think Oakland struggles to score against a horrendous matchup against a team who brings the same length they do. Take away Oakland’s advantage here and they struggle. It’s a defensive nightmare for both teams. Both like to push, both like to play up-tempo, so it’s a bit scary, but strength for strength, these teams are identical. Win or lose, still my team come March (as long as they don’t draw Tennessee first round). Liked way too much today, avoid the bloodbath.
Bets
Denver +5 (2 Units)
Oakland/Tennessee Under 151.5 (2 Units)
DNP: Wright State PK, Santa Clara +6.5, Wisconsin MKE +1.5
GL
0
Posted:
#469
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
You're on the right side I think, I lean that way only.. I spent enough time looking at this game the past few days that I could tell you what kind of gum each of the assistant coaches chews on a daily basis between the hours of 4pm and 6pm. And the only thing to come out of it was a scheduled visit to the psychiatrist tommorow morning.
Hey, you've a sense of humor too!! Perhaps over analyzing? It seemed a clear pick given the descrepancy of your line projection and the actual one.
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Posted:
#471
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Hey, you've a sense of humor too!! Perhaps over analyzing? It seemed a clear pick given the descrepancy of your line projection and the actual one.
Hey, you've a sense of humor too!! Perhaps over analyzing? It seemed a clear pick given the descrepancy of your line projection and the actual one.
Those aren't my lines, those are just what I think the line will be released at. Over analyzing probably the right term to describe. Just going on an extreme guess here, but I can't imagine Wisconsin MKE's trip home from South Dakota on Saturday/Sunday with the storm in the Midwest was a fun one. Just a guess, couldn't really find anything on it.
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