Posted:
#251
12/6 Results: Nevada continues to struggle to score. Washington put up 94 again to have three games of 100 points and two in the 90’s in home games. Washington (#6 Pace in Country) now goes to Texas A&M later in the week against an A&M squad who likes to run somewhat, but hasn’t showed it b/c they have played some incredibly SLOW PACED squads (#218, #308, #221, #298, #337, and #334!). Texas A&M only two times they have played teams in the top 100 this year, they scored 88, and the second game is tonight against Prairie A&M. I got my eye on it. Furman and UNC Greensboro scored 93 points in the 2H. These two teams don’t play each other again this year, so hopefully they meet in the conference tournament b/c that game should have not gone over 142 and it should not have even been close as both teams went off in the 2H.
Sides: 21-10, +15.50
Totals: 6-4, +1.50
DNP: 15-13
12/7 Notes: St. Bonaventure is one of those teams out there who is going to surprise some people. They have a senior PG, and a big man, and with those qualities, they can show up any night. This matchup last year resulted in a one-point victory on the road for St. John’s as they were favored going in by 4.5. These two teams are probably more similar to one another than the line indicates, but Bonny goes through scoring droughts often enough to keep me off the high number. I like some spots with Bonny in the A-10, not here against the Big East. Memphis is 7-0, albeit against a #332 strength of schedule. I thought the # was a little high here too, but looking at last year’s box score, Memphis attempted 12 more shots, and 20 more three-pointers, and still lost the game outright as a 10.5 point dog on a neutral court. Memphis had revenge last year from the post-season loss, so I’m not sure it qualifies here, although it could. Memphis will be a bit more experienced than last year, but so will Kansas. In last year’s game, we had a total of 112. Obviously, with a lined total of 151, both teams are going to get out and go, and it’s because of that that I can’t put any value on Memphis, b/c Kansas is much better suited to get out and go, rather than a half court setting. This isn’t the same Memphis teams of the past, they struggle to rebound, they aren’t as good at defending, and the offense isn’t as smooth. They just haven’t played anyone to where those weaknesses could show. Kansas should put on a show tonight. James Madison is coming off an awful conference loss to Georgia State and are on the 3rd game of a 5 game roady. They have beaten nobody worth mentioning, and their strength of schedule would be the worst in the country had it not opened the year with Kansas State. Marshall lost half its minutes from a year ago but they bring in Tom Herrion who left Pitt as an assistant, and before that all he did was guide College of Charleston to title after title every year in the SOCON. I’m not really interested in taking part in anything James Madison while they’re on this road trip, and while Marshall is pretty sound on the defensive end, they do lack scoring that might be needed here. Old Dominion’s loss at Delaware was extremely shocking, although kenpom’s formula predicted that they would lose. East Carolina, as I have mentioned before, focuses on two main aspects of basketball: shooting three’s and getting layups. If the Old Dominion defense shows up (which I fully expect off of a bad conference loss), ODU will take both of those intangibles away as they normally do. ECU lost both of its games in convincing fashion as a dog and they have played the second to worst strength of schedule in the nation. The home team has one the Georgia/Georgia Tech rivalry all but one time since 1995. I don’t want any part of either of those teams at this point in the season. It sure seems like both Northern Iowa and Iowa are playing at faster paces this year, but the stats don’t show it primarily due to the defense that both teams play. UNI is slowest team in the country presently, and Iowa is mid-pack. This is a game lined at 121, and while UNI’s defense should cause Iowa fits, Iowa should be able to put up more than the 50 it did last year. I lean to the over, it makes no sense, but both these teams are running more in my eyes. Pepperdine beat Utah outright last year as a 6 point pup at home and they return everyone from last year’s squad. However, their offense is terribly ineffective and their best asset is getting to the foul line, something they did against Utah a total of 33 times last year. It’s pretty simple; In Pepperdine’s wins, they’re getting to the foul line an average of 30 times a game, and in their losses, only 19 trips. Utah has yet to play a D-1 squad where they commit more than 20 fouls. Both teams like to get out and go, so Pepperdine getting to the foul line could be added value to the total. Neither team shot all that impressive last year, and both played at much slower paces, and they still hit 145. Utah’s been filling it up at home; nothing should change here with a team that lacks defense. Utah State has won 69 of its last 71 home games and has revenge from a loss last year and head coach Stew Morrill is going for his 300th win. Long Beach State thrives on getting up the maximum amount of shots and hoping some of them fall. They don’t shoot it all that well, but they attempt enough to shoot at a 35% clip and win ballgames. They’re style is an up-tempo, but they don’t have all that great of an offense. Only other comparable defenses they have played this year was Clemson (lost by 14) and St. Peter’s (they have much more offense than St. Peter’s, and St. Peter’s was playing its 3rd game in 3 days)...
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.. hope u make lots of 
!!!!
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