Posted:
#226
12/5 Results: Boise/LSBST would have cashed to the under yesterday. Only game I looked at. To sum up the many posts in here over the weekend without responding to each one, here we go. Been a rough February, and by rough I mean juicing. If, at the end of the year I can say my roughest times were when I juiced, that is a 100% success in my book. This is a marathon and not a sprint for me. I am not in this to get a few quick wins. There will be days of success, there will be days of extreme failure. This is basketball, this is a game of runs, and on any given day, the worst team in the country can beat the best team in the country with a few good bounces. It took me five rough years of risking multiple units to understand that every single day is only a slice of the pie. Until some of you realize that the value of taking part in any form of gambling lies in the long-term, it will continue to be a lesson learned as a failure. There will be some 8-carded days where I just don’t see any value. There will be days with 140+ games where I see 15 games of value. Some days will be wins, some days will be losses. If you take anything out of this thread, please take this: I don’t care about today’s wins, and I do not frown upon yesterday’s losses, and if I put the necessary work into tomorrow, next week, next month, the long-term rewards or losses will outweigh any single game, day, week, or even month, avoid the bloodbath and have fun. This is fun for me, and stops at that. This is not life, not even 1% of it. I am no expert, I have no million dollar bankroll, and I do not do this for the profit. I do this b/c I enjoy the game of basketball.
Sides: 21-10, +15.50
Totals: 6-4, +1.50
DNP: 15-13
12/6 Notes: Throw out Brown/Providence due to the IVY stipulation. This Nevada/Houston game hit 211 last year in a game that saw halves of 105 and 106. Since I mentioned this Nevada team slowing the pace drastically unlike previous years b/c they have to focus on their inside game, they have scored 56, 57, 65, and 70. The 70 came against UNLV who is really up-tempo, so I wouldn’t be too worried about that. Houston isn’t all that offensive minded either, so two things come into play and that’s Nevada having a chance to hang, and the under having a chance to come in. I’m not going to trust either one of them in this situation with both teams having literally no time to prepare. Washington has scored over 100 three of it’s four home games and the only time it didn’t, it still scored 98. Last year’s game saw Washington put up a victory by the final score of 89-54, and they were avenging a loss from the prior season when they lost at Portland to open the season. They were vocal about avenging the loss and their defense showed in last year’s meeting as they scored 35 points off of turnovers with their defensive pressure, one of the few games they actually exhibited a commanding defense last year. Probably a slight look-ahead for Washington here to as they go to 7-1 Texas A&M later in the week. Probably some slight value to the total as Washington will score some points, but if Washington brings the same pressure as last year, then Portland will continue to struggle to score points as it exhibited in the 48 it scored against Kentucky’s pressure, and that was a home game. If you can find a reason for Washington looking ahead to Texas A&M, then the defense will give up some points to push the total over. If you can’t, then the defense will show up and point to the under. Portland has shot less than 36% it’s two high profile games this year (UK & WASHST), so if they shoot better, there’s got to be a variable that allows them to do so, and the look-ahead may just be it, if it’s present. UNC Greensboro’s offense was horrendous last year, and with the loss of four starters, it has continued to look horrendous. Furman’s got revenge for an early exit in the SOCON tourney last year and a better backcourt. Also looks like Greensboro had some illness sweep through the team as two of their players missed last time out. Only thing I see is doubtful tonight. I believe UNC-Greensboro has just started playing home games at the Greensboro Coliseum this year, so any advantage to having shot there, or being use to the surroundings would be all but ruled out. SEMO’s offense is pitiful, and has been for years. Their JUCO style of play has not worked, and will never work in the Division One ranks. They’re also without one of their top scorers due to injury in Niemcyzk and their guards are unbelievable undersized, even by Ohio Valley standards.After Iowa State has played some tougher competition in recent games, I look for the focus to be on defense yet again. After giving up halves of 43 and 45 to Creighton, they rebounded with halves of 29 and 22 to a similar juco style squad to SEMO in Kennesaw State. After giving up a half of 44 to Northern Arizona, they responded with halves of 22 and 25 against yet another similar juco style squad in Alabama State. Now, they get another similar juco style squad in SEMO, after they’ve given up 38 in both halves in a home loss to Cal. Will SEMO even break 45-50 here?
Bets: None
DNP: None
GL
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