Posted:
#301
12/8 Cont’d: Going to the offseason notepad, I have four dates circled for Notre Dame coming into the season (12/8, 2/3, 2/19, and 3/5), and one of them happens to occur today. Those four dates are the four games this year Notre Dame will have a week to prepare for its opponent. Since arriving at Notre Dame in 2000, Mike Brey has been unbelievable with enough prep time. He is 20-5 straight up with at least a week to prepare, winning those games by an average of 16 points. His losses in games with enough prep time were by 2, 1, 2, 8, and 26 (this loss I believe was to Marquette who was top 15 99% of the year). Furthermore, all five of those losses were conference teams. Brey has never lost an out of conference game when given a week to dissect it. Kentucky started the season strong, but their only good win was Washington, and Washington’s defense isn’t what they’ll see tonight in Big East battle tested Notre Dame. This game will be played on a neutral court in Freedom Hall, but it’s still going to look as if it’s a home game with blue painted baselines and the Kentucky logo at center court. A big part of my play here goes to experience and fading the fountain of youth. Kentucky is young, and they’re at the toughest part in their schedule having to bounce back from two tough losses in their past three games. They haven’t dealt with it before and I expect it to be tough on them tonight. Calipari has come out and said it himself, not a single player on the court trusts anybody. Nobody plays help defense. Notre Dame starts five seniors, they move the ball extremely well, and more importantly, they trust each other. Kentucky plays in Freedom Hall every year. So does Notre Dame. In fact, with the experience edge here, Notre Dame is more familiar with the surroundings, the shooting angles, and the lighting. Kentucky has yet to bounce back from any form of adversity this year, while Notre Dame has rallied from big deficits against Georgia and Wisconsin, to win both games. I’ll take the experience, the trust, and the team playing better basketball, in a neutral setting, even if the court will be setup as a home game for Kentucky. I would take a chance on the ML at 2/1, not worth the value below that. I missed an opportunity Sunday with the Boise/LBST under hitting, as it wasn’t a good spot for either squad, but this game tonight at UNLV I lean to the over. UNLV has been putting up some points against lesser pace squads and Boise State’s defense is nothing special. Boise, despite its lack of guard play, has still been getting out and running, and in a blowout type-setting, which is what I expect, you should get some big scoring in the 2H and easier buckets for Boise. Washington State with revenge and coming off a tough loss should put forth a much better effort against a Gonzaga team who’s defense has been pitiful. Manhattan at Fordham, no thank you. Interesting note on last year’s matchup, Fordham attempted 37 free throws; they only scored 44 points. Niagara’s road losses where they are 0-4 have totaled 24, 8 (Marist), 19, and 26. Niagara is also in the midst of a seven game roadtrip, and this is game #5, even though it’s being played close to home. Pretty big rivalry game too. Eastern Illinois with big revenge having already been beaten by Ball State by 31 points this year. Ball State hasn’t beaten an opponent twice in one season since 2006. Most notably, the situation came up last year. Ball State beat Toledo at home 71-43, then lost at Toledo 45-42. Also, Ball State has had over 10 days to prepare, although having played this team already once, a majority of that time was probably spent putting in new things on the offensive side of things. Ball State goes to Depaul next. I just can’t trust this type of road chalk, and clearly my version of Eastern Illinois has been a bit off, but not by much. They should shoot much better this meeting than the last being at home.
Bets
Notre Dame +5 (2 Units)
Towson/George Washington Over 139.5 (2 Units)
DNP: Northeastern +1, Oklahoma State PK
GL
0
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