Not to undermine your hard work, I appreciate the system and its results, its just that one loss here isnt the same as a regular loss, since one loss can remove 2 wins if its in a 3 team teaser.
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Not to undermine your hard work, I appreciate the system and its results, its just that one loss here isnt the same as a regular loss, since one loss can remove 2 wins if its in a 3 team teaser.
Ok, I am going to go ahead and get up what I have so far. Went back through the 7pm and did actually find some games after studying it some more. Was really working quickly..too quickly..now I have slowed down. Going to get all these out even though some have started so I can keep track for the record.
MS1
Providence +10.5
St. Josephs +9
Boston College +9
SGS1
Northern Iowa -6.5
Davidson -11
TCU +9
Drake -2
More to come..working on 9pm games and later now.
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Ok, I am going to go ahead and get up what I have so far. Went back through the 7pm and did actually find some games after studying it some more. Was really working quickly..too quickly..now I have slowed down. Going to get all these out even though some have started so I can keep track for the record.
Smack thanks for all the hard work... didn't get any picks in for 7 or 8 with your system but glad your posting...the results will speak for themselves!
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Smack thanks for all the hard work... didn't get any picks in for 7 or 8 with your system but glad your posting...the results will speak for themselves!
Finally have the total play list for both systems for Wed Feb 11.
MS1
Providence +10.5
St. Josephs +9
Boston College +9
USC +10.5
SGS1
Northern Iowa -6.5
Davidson -11
TCU +9
Drake -2
Boise St. -9.5
Oregon St. +9
Wyoming +11.5
Lots of selections tonight. Again, caution with the SGS1 as I say again it is NOT back tested and modifications are made on a regular basis. I am providing it for informational purposes ONLY. Should you choose to play it I highly advise teasing it.
Good luck tonight!
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Finally have the total play list for both systems for Wed Feb 11.
MS1
Providence +10.5
St. Josephs +9
Boston College +9
USC +10.5
SGS1
Northern Iowa -6.5
Davidson -11
TCU +9
Drake -2
Boise St. -9.5
Oregon St. +9
Wyoming +11.5
Lots of selections tonight. Again, caution with the SGS1 as I say again it is NOT back tested and modifications are made on a regular basis. I am providing it for informational purposes ONLY. Should you choose to play it I highly advise teasing it.
Not to undermine your hard work, I appreciate the system and its results, its just that one loss here isnt the same as a regular loss, since one loss can remove 2 wins if its in a 3 team teaser.
I can certainly appreciate your viewpoint as it is one I have explained and expounded upon earlier in the thread. That is why my goal is to get the system results up in the 90% to 95% success range...to help reduce the effects of losses on the results. We have had a 10-0 day...and another day 14-1 where the 1 loss was by .5 point, if I remember correctly...might have been by 1 point...but my point is, if the system can win at that rate, and you DO NOT replay teams in your teasers...you may go 3-1 on the day but you will be up units.
And if you can be up units over the long term by playing selections that cover/win 90% or more of the time...you will be a huge winner over time.
Obviously, this system does not mean that you throw out your own due diligence and handicapping. You add your handicapping to the selections and make the best choice you can with good money management.
But again, if I can reach my goal of 90% + winners, it makes your choices much easier.
The MS1 is at 44-8-3 before tonights action. Thats 80% winners for a 7 point teaser that loses on a push. Its at 41-11-3 if you played them in 4 point teasers that will DEMOTE on a tie result...These pushes could result in a win for the lower level teaser and often will. Thats an 80% win rate for 4 point teasers as well if you look at it that way.
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Quote Originally Posted by umirin:
Not to undermine your hard work, I appreciate the system and its results, its just that one loss here isnt the same as a regular loss, since one loss can remove 2 wins if its in a 3 team teaser.
I can certainly appreciate your viewpoint as it is one I have explained and expounded upon earlier in the thread. That is why my goal is to get the system results up in the 90% to 95% success range...to help reduce the effects of losses on the results. We have had a 10-0 day...and another day 14-1 where the 1 loss was by .5 point, if I remember correctly...might have been by 1 point...but my point is, if the system can win at that rate, and you DO NOT replay teams in your teasers...you may go 3-1 on the day but you will be up units.
And if you can be up units over the long term by playing selections that cover/win 90% or more of the time...you will be a huge winner over time.
Obviously, this system does not mean that you throw out your own due diligence and handicapping. You add your handicapping to the selections and make the best choice you can with good money management.
But again, if I can reach my goal of 90% + winners, it makes your choices much easier.
The MS1 is at 44-8-3 before tonights action. Thats 80% winners for a 7 point teaser that loses on a push. Its at 41-11-3 if you played them in 4 point teasers that will DEMOTE on a tie result...These pushes could result in a win for the lower level teaser and often will. Thats an 80% win rate for 4 point teasers as well if you look at it that way.
First off, thanks Smack for doing this. I do think you're onto something.
However, based on Umirin's comments, I did want to provide a little clarification on the Break Even Win Percentage of a system like this.
For Three Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 81.7%. If you pick three things to happen with an 81.7% success rate, they probability that they all happen at once is 54.5% (the Break Even point for -120 vigorish).
Likewise, for Two Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 73.8%.
Each Break Even Win Percentage is directly dependent on the vigorish,
If you're getting -110, Three Teamers need 80.6%, Two Teamers need 72.4%.
If you're getting -130, Three Teamers need 82.7%, Two Teamers need 75.2%.
This will obviously only show up over the long haul which is what you are trying to do but that should give people a better idea of the relative success of the system. It is still doing well as long as your book doesn't count pushes as losses. Personally, I've had more success with the Two Teamers since my book does count pushes as losses. Keep doing what your doing though. 85-90% success over the long haul on your +7 teasers would be ground-breaking.
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First off, thanks Smack for doing this. I do think you're onto something.
However, based on Umirin's comments, I did want to provide a little clarification on the Break Even Win Percentage of a system like this.
For Three Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 81.7%. If you pick three things to happen with an 81.7% success rate, they probability that they all happen at once is 54.5% (the Break Even point for -120 vigorish).
Likewise, for Two Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 73.8%.
Each Break Even Win Percentage is directly dependent on the vigorish,
If you're getting -110, Three Teamers need 80.6%, Two Teamers need 72.4%.
If you're getting -130, Three Teamers need 82.7%, Two Teamers need 75.2%.
This will obviously only show up over the long haul which is what you are trying to do but that should give people a better idea of the relative success of the system. It is still doing well as long as your book doesn't count pushes as losses. Personally, I've had more success with the Two Teamers since my book does count pushes as losses. Keep doing what your doing though. 85-90% success over the long haul on your +7 teasers would be ground-breaking.
First off, thanks Smack for doing this. I do think you're onto something.
However, based on Umirin's comments, I did want to provide a little clarification on the Break Even Win Percentage of a system like this.
For Three Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 81.7%. If you pick three things to happen with an 81.7% success rate, they probability that they all happen at once is 54.5% (the Break Even point for -120 vigorish).
Likewise, for Two Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 73.8%.
Each Break Even Win Percentage is directly dependent on the vigorish,
If you're getting -110, Three Teamers need 80.6%, Two Teamers need 72.4%.
If you're getting -130, Three Teamers need 82.7%, Two Teamers need 75.2%.
This will obviously only show up over the long haul which is what you are trying to do but that should give people a better idea of the relative success of the system. It is still doing well as long as your book doesn't count pushes as losses. Personally, I've had more success with the Two Teamers since my book does count pushes as losses. Keep doing what your doing though. 85-90% success over the long haul on your +7 teasers would be ground-breaking.
Love the information! Thanks much! Happen to have a link for the statistics there? I would like to look at that a bit more.
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Quote Originally Posted by tk_524:
First off, thanks Smack for doing this. I do think you're onto something.
However, based on Umirin's comments, I did want to provide a little clarification on the Break Even Win Percentage of a system like this.
For Three Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 81.7%. If you pick three things to happen with an 81.7% success rate, they probability that they all happen at once is 54.5% (the Break Even point for -120 vigorish).
Likewise, for Two Team Teasers at -120 vigorish, the Break Even Win Percentage is 73.8%.
Each Break Even Win Percentage is directly dependent on the vigorish,
If you're getting -110, Three Teamers need 80.6%, Two Teamers need 72.4%.
If you're getting -130, Three Teamers need 82.7%, Two Teamers need 75.2%.
This will obviously only show up over the long haul which is what you are trying to do but that should give people a better idea of the relative success of the system. It is still doing well as long as your book doesn't count pushes as losses. Personally, I've had more success with the Two Teamers since my book does count pushes as losses. Keep doing what your doing though. 85-90% success over the long haul on your +7 teasers would be ground-breaking.
Love the information! Thanks much! Happen to have a link for the statistics there? I would like to look at that a bit more.
I have the spreadsheet that I wrote up quick to calculate everything but that's about it. It's really pretty simple:
Start with the vigorish you're getting to determine your required Vigorish Break Even Percentage:
-110: 52.4%
-120: 54.5%
-130: 56.5%
Here's a calculator that will do it for you:
https://www.onlinebetting.com/odds-converter/
Then, you're just using basic statistics to satisfy the condition. To find the probability of two things happening together, you just multiply their individual probabilities together. I'm assuming that each of your picks has the same probability so you just take the square root for Two Team Teasers and the cube root for Three Team Teasers.
For -120 Three Teamers:
(0.817*0.817*0.817) = 0.817^3 = 0.545
For -120 Two Teamers:
(0.738*0.738) = 0.738^2 = 0.545
I do use Excel almost everyday for work so if you wanted me to provide you with a spreadsheet that did more advanced calculations (for example, if you have higher confidence in certain picks), I could do that for you. Just let me know.
Keep up the good work.
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No problem Smack,
I have the spreadsheet that I wrote up quick to calculate everything but that's about it. It's really pretty simple:
Start with the vigorish you're getting to determine your required Vigorish Break Even Percentage:
-110: 52.4%
-120: 54.5%
-130: 56.5%
Here's a calculator that will do it for you:
https://www.onlinebetting.com/odds-converter/
Then, you're just using basic statistics to satisfy the condition. To find the probability of two things happening together, you just multiply their individual probabilities together. I'm assuming that each of your picks has the same probability so you just take the square root for Two Team Teasers and the cube root for Three Team Teasers.
For -120 Three Teamers:
(0.817*0.817*0.817) = 0.817^3 = 0.545
For -120 Two Teamers:
(0.738*0.738) = 0.738^2 = 0.545
I do use Excel almost everyday for work so if you wanted me to provide you with a spreadsheet that did more advanced calculations (for example, if you have higher confidence in certain picks), I could do that for you. Just let me know.
Would it be profitable to parlay two tgether at a time, and buy 2 points for each?
I will figure out what the Break Even Win Percentage is for this proposition when I have a little free time tomorrow. The other half of this will be looking back at Smack's results and compiling his overall MS1 Win-Loss-Push record at +2 instead of +7.... I know he lists his record with the Cover By numbers so it shouldn't be too hard to do. Cover by more than 5 is Win, 5 exactly is Push, Everything else Loss. If I have time to go back through it I will but Smack may be able to pull those numbers relatively quickly.
Smack, I'm really not trying to hijack the thread, only supply insight where I can. Hope that's alright.
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Quote Originally Posted by umirin:
Would it be profitable to parlay two tgether at a time, and buy 2 points for each?
I will figure out what the Break Even Win Percentage is for this proposition when I have a little free time tomorrow. The other half of this will be looking back at Smack's results and compiling his overall MS1 Win-Loss-Push record at +2 instead of +7.... I know he lists his record with the Cover By numbers so it shouldn't be too hard to do. Cover by more than 5 is Win, 5 exactly is Push, Everything else Loss. If I have time to go back through it I will but Smack may be able to pull those numbers relatively quickly.
Smack, I'm really not trying to hijack the thread, only supply insight where I can. Hope that's alright.
I will figure out what the Break Even Win Percentage is for this proposition when I have a little free time tomorrow. The other half of this will be looking back at Smack's results and compiling his overall MS1 Win-Loss-Push record at +2 instead of +7.... I know he lists his record with the Cover By numbers so it shouldn't be too hard to do. Cover by more than 5 is Win, 5 exactly is Push, Everything else Loss. If I have time to go back through it I will but Smack may be able to pull those numbers relatively quickly.
Smack, I'm really not trying to hijack the thread, only supply insight where I can. Hope that's alright.
More than alright tk..I appreciate your insight greatly bro!
Well, work has been tough this week...just got in again...very late. I don't have time to even get the 8pm games out. Going to eat some dinner and see if anything shows up for the 9pm and on games.
Back in a bit.
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Quote Originally Posted by tk_524:
I will figure out what the Break Even Win Percentage is for this proposition when I have a little free time tomorrow. The other half of this will be looking back at Smack's results and compiling his overall MS1 Win-Loss-Push record at +2 instead of +7.... I know he lists his record with the Cover By numbers so it shouldn't be too hard to do. Cover by more than 5 is Win, 5 exactly is Push, Everything else Loss. If I have time to go back through it I will but Smack may be able to pull those numbers relatively quickly.
Smack, I'm really not trying to hijack the thread, only supply insight where I can. Hope that's alright.
More than alright tk..I appreciate your insight greatly bro!
Well, work has been tough this week...just got in again...very late. I don't have time to even get the 8pm games out. Going to eat some dinner and see if anything shows up for the 9pm and on games.
Thanks dabreeze...I am going to slowly get these out as I go through them and will eventually have all of the picks up for tracking purposes even if they are already playing.
There is a SGS1 going off here in a few minutes.
UT Arlington -2.5
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Thanks dabreeze...I am going to slowly get these out as I go through them and will eventually have all of the picks up for tracking purposes even if they are already playing.
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