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Currently Back Testing A New System

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Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:14 AM ET #351

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Hurrying to get these up...

MS1

USF +12.5

Troy +10

Syracuse +14

Rice +4.5

Tenn St. +18.5

Nevada +11.5

Southern Miss +9

SGS1

Akron +1.5

Davidson +1.5

UNLV +1...,,,,,,,,,,,,,1st game without key player and I still like play

VCU PK.................Vcu Graham ,, ???

Miss St. +2.5 ..... Mo ... 1st game without key player

LSU +1.5

Evansville +1

Oregon St. -1.5.............USC ,,McGlauflin .. doubtful

North Dakota St. +7.5

Eastern Washington -11.... EW ... Harvey ???

Georgia -11......... .....Aub Mason doubtful big loss

Virginia -17

UT Arlington -4

Villanova -2

Chattanooga -10.5

Georgia Southern -1.5

Florida +2.5.....................Fla ..1st game on road without Frazier

Pennsylvania PK

Boise St. -5

Belmont -5

Dartmouth PK

Gonzaga -18.5

Alabama +1.5 ........Ala .. Tarant .. doubtful

Old Dominion +4.5

BYU -17.5

... Just a heads up if people care ..

smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:27 AM ET #352

Thanks Upside, more information always a good thing.

I actually thought I was up against an 11 am game and was really hurrying to get the selections out...lol...found out I have a bit more time. Found another one.

MS1

Texas St. +14

Still looking...

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Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:31 AM ET #353

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Thanks Upside, more information always a good thing.

I actually thought I was up against an 11 am game and was really hurrying to get the selections out...lol...found out I have a bit more time. Found another one.

MS1

Texas St. +14

Still looking...

... Wow bro ... a ton of SGS1 games .. Since you tweaked the SGS1 system it has improved , right ??? Thx !!!

tk_524

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 7

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:41 AM ET #354

I've also got Bama at -4...

smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:48 AM ET #355

Ok, some updates.

Southern Miss has moved to a favorite of -1. Technically, this would remove it from the MS1 list, however, I still like it and have it as a personal play.

Adding to the SGS1

Yale -1

Monmouth +2

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:51 AM ET #356

MS1 addition with a recent line move...

Jacksonville St. +8.5

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:58 AM ET #357

Quote Originally Posted by tk_524:

I've also got Bama at -4...

Thanks tk..yes,its Alabama at -4...mah fingers...mah brain!

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smacksmiter

Banned

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Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 12:04 PM ET #358

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

... Wow bro ... a ton of SGS1 games .. Since you tweaked the SGS1 system it has improved , right ??? Thx !!!

It's still early in the process but this tweak, looking back at some back testing over about 50 games, produced in the 60% to 70% range. Still not a lot of games looked at but I am adding it into the system now so I can track it. It seems to produce more selections...not sure if I really like that so I may be looking to add another modifier to reduce games. Basically want to see how it does on a big card today and will go from there.

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 1:39 PM ET #359

Updating the record as of yesterday, Friday.

MS1 went 1-1.....Overall 49-10-3

SGS1 went 3-1....Overall 29-21-1

4 point teasers on MS1 ...1-1...Overall 48-12-4

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smacksmiter

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Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 1:49 PM ET #360

SGS1 addition...line move

UT San Antonio +1

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dabreeze

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 1630

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 2:02 PM ET #361

Texas St

DaBreeze

smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 2:03 PM ET #362

SGS1 additions...

Miami Ohio -1.5

Mississippi St. +2

Middle Tennessee St. +1.5

That should be all of them barring some wacky line moves.

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tk_524

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 7

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 4:56 PM ET #363

Quote Originally Posted by umirin:

Would it be profitable to parlay two tgether at a time, and buy 2 points for each?

To buy two points on a line at -110, my book moves the line -10 per half point. This means 2 points costs -150. A parlay of 2 teams at -150 pays +178.

Break Even Win Percentage of a bet at +178 is 36%. But this is a two team parlay which means the Break Even Win Percentage for individual picks is 60%.

I have not had time to look up Smack's record at Line +2 but the break even point is 60%.

tk_524

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 7

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 5:12 PM ET #364

Looking into it a little more, I saw that the Break Even Win Percentage for a single wager at -150 is 60% too so there would be no point in parlaying the picks because over the long term it ends up exactly the same. I'll admit I thought there was some odds incentive in parlays but, looking at the math, there's not. This makes sense now that I think about it.

AppleMunch25

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 694

Posted: Feb. 14, 2015 - 11:03 PM ET #365

Oof, teasers got killed today.

smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 2:00 AM ET #366

Quick review on the day here as it is late...

MS1 Day 16....6-2......Overall 55-12-3.

SGS1 Day 11.....16-15-1.....Overall 45-36-2.

4 point teasers...53-15-4.

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smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 11:52 AM ET #367

Pretty disappointed in the SGS1 results from yesterday. I am putting a hold on selections from it for awhile as I try to sift through the problem.

MS1

Milwaukee +13

Niagara +13

Northwestern +13

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smacksmiter

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Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 12:26 PM ET #368

Putting out some personal plays...not system plays.

Loyola Chicago +3

Niagara +6

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Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 12:32 PM ET #369

Like em all

Milwaukee +13

Niagara +13

Northwestern +13

westy9854

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 12:53 PM ET #370

Is this ryno's thread? Because it looks like the same exact picks and for some reason yours come out about 2 hours after his. You should be upset on your sHS1 because you are just throwing darts at a wall.
GL today.

Love your thread though, read it everyday

smacksmiter

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 14064

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 12:59 PM ET #371

Quote Originally Posted by westy9854:

Is this ryno's thread? Because it looks like the same exact picks and for some reason yours come out about 2 hours after his. You should be upset on your sHS1 because you are just throwing darts at a wall.
GL today.

Love your thread though, read it everyday

Thanks for the compliments....I think...

Actually, I haven't even looked at Ryno's thread in a week. It would be an amazing thing if he was on all of my picks because, as you point out, I am just throwing darts at a wall.

Don't get exactly how we have the exact same plays then. Is he using the same darts as me?

Confusing...lol...

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Raider63

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 967

Posted: Feb. 15, 2015 - 2:06 PM ET #372

I dont see it as he is throwing darts at all. I am not sure what his system is or how it works. I for one appreciate both systems and have played them successfully using 3 team 8 point teasers. I am not good at giving compliments either but I can say Thanks Smack for all the time and energy and for sharing. WInning losing or drawing, You cannot win them all, 1 day does not ruin or make a system.