Posted:
#1
I have only back tested this on about 200 games but wanted to get some feedback on how valuable this might be.
I noticed that I was winning a lot more 7 point teasers than straight up bets so I decided to back test on every lined game using my criteria and found out that my selections were winning at a 78% rate
So, it appears it may be worth doing a lot more work on...but for now, I am going to start posting these teams on a daily basis.
So, the teaser that I have been playing is this.
3 team, 7 point teaser where ties lose.
You put up 120 to win 100.
Here is the list of teams for today that qualify.
Xavier
W. Virginia
St. Josephs
Alabama
Tennessee
Baylor
Colorado St.
One critical criterion of my back testing is that I used the closing line on the game to calculate the winner. Obviously, this may affect the win/lose ratio as your line may be different some hours before the game closes. I figured it would have too much variance in my back testing to choose another time to sample the line as they change so much right up to game time.
Another point that was interesting. I had thought that the ties would affect the winner/loser of the game much more often than they have. Not one single game, so far, has been lost due to a tie.
I will be tracking these and posting the record and will be selecting some 3 team teasers from the list to post as my selections.
Good luck!
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
by .5 of a point.
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