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Currently Back Testing A New System

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Prospect
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Posted: #276

I absolutely love this system. On Saturday, I missed some early plays, but was still able to get three 3-team teasers out there. Well, because this has been so good to me, I decided to put a really small bet on a 9-team teaser, and it was good for a +1200 hit.

I'm currently working on an NBA system that is showing real promise. The wins are small, but they are consistent and it's a pretty safe way for someone to add slowly to the bankroll.

 
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Posted: #277
 
Captain
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Posted: #278
Thought we had GT ??? Meltdown >>>> More filters my friend .. you'll find it ... My filter already did not work on the SGS1 games .. Good luck ... 
 
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Posted: #279
Quote Originally Posted by umirin:

Hi Smack, this looks really interesting and fun. Just one question, when you have more than 3 games, say 5 games, how many combinations of teasers do you play?

Say you have Teams A, B, C, D, E

Would 2 plays look like

A, B, C
C, D, E

With C, the overlapping pick, be the most confident?

This question has come up multiple times in similar ways.  Basically, its a judgement call on your part on how to proceed.  My lean is to not reuse teams in teasers unless I am very, very confident in the selection as when you use the same team keyed in multiple teasers and you are WRONG it kills all the teasers.

I have had that happen and I really dislike it a lot. So much so that my little rule about not reusing them has been something I have followed pretty strictly.

But, if you have very strong correlation on one game, and you key that game in all your teasers and it hits...its a very nice thing as it basically means your 3 teamers become 2 teamers and thus much easier to win.

So, its a decision on risk that you have to make.  How much risk are you comfortable with?

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Posted: #280
Thanks Smack! 
 
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Posted: #281
Going to go ahead and post the MS1 plays for Day 12 but SGS1 will have to be closer to game time as work calls once again.

MS1  41-7-3

Clemson +10.5
Northwestern +14
LSU +17.5
Nebraska +16

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Prospect
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Posted: #282
When do you normally post your teaser picks for the night?

Apologies if this is a redundant question**
 
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Posted: #283
MS1 are his teaser picks
SGS1 are his straight picks
Bol
 
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Posted: #284
DaBreeze
 
Prospect
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Posted: #285
Are you teasing all 4 together?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #286
which three you going with smack? I have Norte Dame winning, but since you have Clemson on a tease - I'm a little confused to which three to put on a teaser. THanks
 
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Posted: #287
Well, work got in the way big time today.  I thought I was going to have time to work on the SGS1 plays but it did not happen.  Never even had time to play my teaser but it would have been

LSU
Northwestern
Clemson

I'm going to eat some dinner and see if I can find any SGS1 plays for later.  Back in a bit.

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Posted: #288
There are three SGS1 plays left tonight...

UNLV -8.5
Utah St. -8.5
Evansville -7.5

As per usual, I will give my normal disclaimer on the SGS1.  I recommend that you tease the plays for protection.  The system only has 32 total plays and has not been back tested as it is currently being tweaked and modified.  Caution is advised.

My personal play for tonight is Iona -8

Good luck!

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Posted: #289
Quote Originally Posted by richard_michael:

When do you normally post your teaser picks for the night?

Apologies if this is a redundant question**

Normally, my teaser selection comes in the last hour before the games start up.  On rare occasion, if I feel like the lines are going to move against me, it may be locked in earlier in the day so I will post it earlier.  

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Posted: #290
Day 12 for the MS1 is in the books and the system went 3-1. Northwestern was a borderline selection just barely a system selection so that's just the way it goes....I hated that pick but it was so crazy I was thinking it might work.  Nope.

MS1  3-1...........Overall 44-8-3

Clemson +10.5...........Cover by 8..............
Northwestern +14........loser by 10.............
LSU +17.5...................Cover by 15...........
Nebraska +16...............Cover by 6.............

If you had played these with a 4 point teaser the record would have been the same.  The 4 point teaser record with the MS1 is 41-11-3 with the 3 pushes demoting the teaser and not killing it so they could be counted as wins in some cases.

SGS1 recap in a bit.



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Posted: #291
Day 7 for the SGS1 is complete and the system went 2-1. Evansville missed the cover by 1 point.

SGS1  2-1........20-14-1

Utah St. -8.5.........winner..............
UNLV  -8.5............winner..............
Evansville -7.5........loser................

If I had gotten home from work in time we would have had another winner in Eastern Michigan...but, didn't happen.

My personal selection Iona -8 covered by 7...........

Overall, a good night.

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Posted: #292
Oh yes, It's worth noting that if you took my advice and teased the 3 SGS1 selections you had another winner on the night.  If you choose to play them straight, I continue to recommend a teaser as well for protection.  If they go 1-2 or even 0-3, your teaser still has a very good shot at taking the sting out of a losing night.

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Posted: #293
 
Prospect
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Posted: #294
Hey. im digging this. Going to hump onboard tomorrow and stick with it for the week. 
 
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Posted: #295
Quote Originally Posted by xTOMMYDx:

Hey. im digging this. Going to hump onboard tomorrow and stick with it for the week. 

I have no idea how this isn't the most popular thread on this forum. This system has been phenomenal.
 
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Posted: #296
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

I was going back through my notes for tonight and realized I had missed one of the selections...NevadaSo the total selection list for tonight should have been...using the closing lines.Xavier +11                             W. Virginia                            St. Josephs  +12                   Alabama  +9                         Tennessee  +17.5                  Baylor  +10.5                           by .5 of a point.Colorado St.  +10                     Nevada   +11.5


..................


I use the same system but only use 2 team teasers...... When it comes to basketball I wait for the weekend so that I can pick the best 2 games..... I have been killing it...... Also... Stay way ranked teams playing eachother
 
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Posted: #297
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

I was going back through my notes for tonight and realized I had missed one of the selections...NevadaSo the total selection list for tonight should have been...using the closing lines.Xavier +11                             W. Virginia                            St. Josephs  +12                   Alabama  +9                         Tennessee  +17.5                  Baylor  +10.5                           by .5 of a point.Colorado St.  +10                     Nevada   +11.5


..................


I use the same system but only use 2 team teasers...... When it comes to basketball I wait for the weekend so that I can pick the best 2 games..... I have been killing it...... Also... Stay way ranked teams playing eachother
 
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Posted: #298

might be because of the teaser element. looking at these individually the record is killer, but the trick is to not pull in the one or two that dont cover....

keep up the good work and thanks

 
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Posted: #299
I think your record is extremely misleading.

If you post 

A teased to +17
B teased to +20
C teased to +8, etc

and B doesnt cover, you cant cound that as 2-1, that is 0-1 in my opinion. 

If youre going to do that, you need to grade by the standard non-teased spread.
 
 
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Posted: #300
Quote Originally Posted by umirin:

I think your record is extremely misleading.

If you post 

A teased to +17
B teased to +20
C teased to +8, etc

and B doesnt cover, you cant cound that as 2-1, that is 0-1 in my opinion. 

If youre going to do that, you need to grade by the standard non-teased spread.

I mean, if youre going to grade that way, I can play a 10 team 12 point teaser of the teams playing in the NBA tonight, and I will likely finish at 8-2 or 9-1, or 7-3, but the teaser will have lost, resulting in 0-1 overall...
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