Bubba's $$$$ Thread SUNDAY- Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.27.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for helping keep this thread positive.  It is for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

UCONN vs Texas

I watched both of their Sweet 16 games.

UCONN steamrolled Miss St. from the tip-off. The 1Q was 32-4. The 1H score was 61-12. The final score was 98-38. Like most men, I don't ever watch girls basketball but every sports fan knows that UCONN is a perennial powerhouse. What I didn't realize is how far above the rim they play against other “good” teams.

Their best player 6' 4” Breanna Stewart is very impressive. She is a great rim protector and rebounder. She had 14 boards and 5 blocks against Miss St. While on offense, she is a versatile, efficient big. Stewart can step out and hit jumpers and also create off the dribble. She is way too much for opposing bigs to handle. She was 8-10 from the field and 2-2 from three against Miss St.

By the way, Stewart is a senior who has won the national championship the last 3 years at UCONN.

However, I don't want to give the impression that UCONN is one-dimensional. They're not. They flow very well on offense. All game I saw UCONN players make the extra pass to find teammates for layups. They had 26 assists against Miss St.

Bottom line, UCONN didn't just win, they demoralized Miss St. UCONN made them look like a high school squad. This will continue against Texas.

Texas and UCLA played an ugly game. Texas scored 11 points in the 1Q and 28 in the 1H. This wasn't because of UCLA's defense. Texas, when they didn't turn the ball over, couldn't hit shots including missing many bunnies in the paint.

Texas's offense has no flow. It was painful watching them in their half-court set. They were down by more than 5 for the first 3Qs. The only reason they won was because UCLA didn't show up in the 4Q.

Against UCONN, Texas can't afford to have a scoring lull. In fact, they can't afford to have anything less than their best game of year plus a little something more. I just don't see that. They were lucky to get by UCLA with how lethargic they looked.

UCONN will roll here. They're a complete team playing cohesively with one another. They're also extra vigilant after seeing Notre Dame and Syracuse get upset on Friday night. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them cover the spread by halftime.

UCONN -21

The game isn't until Sunday night and the line has already moved to -26 1/2 since this afternoon. I see value all the way up to -30. Remember, UCONN just beat Miss St by 60 and their starters didn't even play much of the 4Q. 

bump

Virginia -8

Both teams are known for their defense.  One team is like a cup cake school so their overall record is like my resume, filled up with employment gaps.    0-6 on the under with 4 under being recent

Both teams depending on their defense to win games so their offense is crap.   43rd and 66th in the nation in defense

I'm playing under 133.5 in the irvine and coastal caro game

Just as I suspected... The Jayhawks went down last night. Vegas needed that one baaaad

"Vega" is going to make their money regardless. 

VMI what do you like today?

Good morning.  Ny post's howie hoops split his ticket yesterday . He now stands at 31-26-2.  Tonite he has the Irish + 10 over the tar heels, and the wahoos - 8 1/2 over the Orangemen . 

Leaning Irish, depending on the number I get. They have found a way to stay in these games and I think they can keep it close. Thye beat UNC once and then got their butts handed to them in the ACC tourney. I don't see that happening again. Could it? Yes, but I don't think so

Passed on posting a play yesterday.   Still got whacked when Kansas either forgot to show up  or did a poor imitation of my 1950 ccny beavers. Meaning, despite shaving points, they knew that they had to win when it counted. Not that old . When I attended we were playing in the small college division (no d II or d III).

This Irish hoops team reminds me of our Undefeated football season where they one just about every game ugly and then got their fools handed to them by Bama. Actually went to that game in Miami knowing that was probably going to happen. Same feeling here. If they come out and shoot to their capabilities they can make a game of it...but I have not seen any sign of  that whatsoever!  

Let me start out by saying that I have also played WASH -5 for the 1H, because I think there is a much better chance of winning both than losing both.
After giving up 62 1H points to MINN on Friday and losing the game, coach Whitman said, "We lost the game in the first half, the way we came out and played absolutely zero defense and allowed them to feel good about themselves."  Absolutely needing a win today, WAS should not make the same mistake again.
Looking at the last few home games for the LAKERS, they have had low scoring first halves themselves and as a 1H total.  In addition, they are losing the 1H often too.  Check it out for yourself.
LAK cannot score like MIN can, so right off the bat WAS has a great chance of improving their 1H defense tonight.  Russell being doubtful to play increases our chances of winning both plays.
My $$$$ play is the one I like better, but I have played them both equally.   Good luck would be nice for us too.

Virginia under 124.5 

NJ Devils @ Car Hurricanes

Switching to a different sport for my play of the day .

My book had Virginia -215 and North Carolina -305 in the 1h. Parlayed both for almost even money. Thats got to be the best play if you need to play something in this game. Lines just too solid.

Actually, I hear Virginia is very good against the zone. As a matter of fact, according to ESPN analytics crew, they are the best. They talked about this today (bilas and Seth). Now, I'm not naive here to think that what ESPN says is totally true but it should make one pump the brakes in thinking Virginia can't beat a zone at all. That thinking there is indeed naive. I was way off in my assessment of the Oklahoma Oregon game but in this one, is the obvious that obvious? What's funny here is that EVERYONE is giving credit to Syracuse for their HISTORIC zone yet the most efficient team defensively, is the opponent, Virginia. You say under because of Syracuse, even though I'm leaning over, the emphasis in this post is on the wrong team. Again, no credit for Virginia and why, I have no clue. If it were so obvious tonite that this game is going to be played slow and methodical, then why play the game? If I'm Virginia or Syracuse, I'm using the other teams strengths against them. I'm putting a guy right in the middle of that Syracuse zone and I'm getting deep causing them to collapse thus leaving shooters open. gonzaga succeeded here with sabonis but they couldn't finish on defense.  I'm attacking those gaps and creating mismatches down low. Virginia will be ready. If I'm Syracuse on offense, I'm pushing the tempo trying to get Virginia out of their slow play. I'm trying to get out early and use my athleticism. Oregon couldnt do this with Oklahoma which was surprising but Virginia doesn't have hield, so taking some risks in my eyes is worth it. If Syracuse can get a lead then I think the zone becomes that much more effective. As a high school basketball coach, beating a zone takes patience. You make them move and when that happens, whistles blow because of the ground that needs to be made up when the guards get inside and have options. Virginia has those guards and as obvious as this game is to think it goes under, I can see this game going over. My thoughts; that's all this is so relax if you don't agree, just adding a different insight angle here. Good luck gents

Also, if the score is close after the 1h I am looking at playing Virginia in the 2h. Syracuse is a very good 1h team due to there zone defense. As much as teams prepare for it it becomes very hard to defend once you actually see it.

Virginia/Syracuse over 124