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#1
I absolutely love this time of year and, honestly, I'm involved in more non-traditional pools than the bracket, but nothing quite the same as filling that out. And with that, before you run off and fill it out with reckless abandonment, a recent, historical, statistical view into how the brackets have played out over the last 10 years.
Since 2007, there have been 40 Final Four teams - 10 years of tournaments, four teams make the Final Four each year; 10 * 4 =40. If you're needing help with this math, you might want to turn away... and you'll likely win your bracket. Sorry for the tangent..
Of the 40 Final Four teams over the last 10 years, 36 of them have been in both the top 40 for offensive and defensive efficiency and/or be ranked # 1 in one of those categories - the latter happened once with Louisville in 2012 when they ranked 1 in defensive efficiency. You're probably thinking, 'big deal, top 40, that's likely more than half of the field of 68'. Well, it's not, only 20 teams in this years field rank in the top 40 for both offensive and defensive efficiency and one team who is ranked 1st, but not top 40 for both. More on the teams in a bit..
36 out of 40, that's 90% of the Final Four teams in the last 10 years have been in the top 40. Dialing it down even further, 30 (75%) of the Final Four participants over the last 10 years have been in the top 30 for offensive and defensive efficiency. The 90% is a bit overwhelming, but you'll see most of the teams are higher seeded, so there is some correlation to the success rate.
What I found most interesting is that over the last 10 years, the team who cut down the nets in the end, 9 of them were in the top 25 for offensive and defensive efficiency - the lone wolf was the Shabazz Napier-led Connecticut team in 2014 . And, in fact, 8 of them were in the top 20. Again, you're probably thinking all of the top seeds fall within the top 20 this season, but actually there are only 3 teams in the top 20 for both efficiency ratings and only 9 in the top 25.
Now, obviously, past performance is no indication of future results, but just passing along some data I uncovered in the lab. The beauty of statistics is that there is randomness, or Napierness in this case, and there is always outliers to the norm. Maybe this year we get another outlier, but as sample size grows, stats don't lie. Don't rip up the bracket you worked so hard to complete, but maybe look to this data set when you're considering who to bet on game to game.
And now the teams who qualify this season..
Top 40 offensive & defensive efficiency
Villanova
UNC
Duke
Kansas
Gonzaga
SMU
Kentucky
Saint Mary's
Oregon
Arizona
Baylor
Louisville
Purdue
Florida State
West Virginia
Florida
Creighton
Cincinnati
Virginia
Wisconsin
Top 25 offensive & defensive efficiency
Villanova
UNC
Gonzaga
Kentucky
Oregon
Baylor
Louisville
Purdue
Florida State
Top 20 offensive & defensive efficiency
Villanova
Gonzaga
Kentucky
Oh and the team who ranked 1st in offensive efficiency, but was outside the top of the defensive rankings.... Oklahoma State. Maybe they have a Louisville-esque run in them. The top ranked team for offensive efficiency has made the Final Four 7 out of the last 10 tournaments.
More to come on my bracket thoughts...
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