Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
My pick is cal-baker+5.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
My pick is cal-baker+5.5
I like this idea. I've been pretty spot on on trap games the last few days. Here is a little something I picked up too: When 2 good teams play each other and you feel like the dog can keep it within the number and the spread is too high, that's usually when you want to bet the favorite. When you feel the favorite can easily cover the spread no matter what it is, that's when you want to be on the dog. This doesn't work 100% and I haven't tracked the data and examples, but I'm sure it's around 70%.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:
Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
My pick is cal-baker+5.5
I like this idea. I've been pretty spot on on trap games the last few days. Here is a little something I picked up too: When 2 good teams play each other and you feel like the dog can keep it within the number and the spread is too high, that's usually when you want to bet the favorite. When you feel the favorite can easily cover the spread no matter what it is, that's when you want to be on the dog. This doesn't work 100% and I haven't tracked the data and examples, but I'm sure it's around 70%.
Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
My pick is cal-baker+5.5
Your entire system is based on a fictitious number
Where did you get that 79% number, how was it attained?
Don't say here at Covers
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Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:
Trying a new system with those fishy lines. To document them and see how it does... I keep going against it and losing, because everyone on here is usually backing the line too. I trust you all know what you're doing more than I do, so I usually go against these picks. This is just my way to track how it goes. Tonight 79% on Seattle and it has shifted half a point. Gonna see if there's something to this theory I have that Vegas bets against these lines to keep them down where the public eats it up.
My pick is cal-baker+5.5
Your entire system is based on a fictitious number
Where did you get that 79% number, how was it attained?
Your entire system is based on a fictitious number
Where did you get that 79% number, how was it attained?
Don't say here at Covers
I'm guessing you're on Seattle, lol. With all due respect I've seen your picks and you make some great choices and plays, but we're trying to figure out the trap games. The other night you said Duq should be -6 against Richmond and they lost outright. I told you that was a trap, and same thing yesterday with Elon. I haven't dug into this one yet, but I have noticed alot of games with big reverse line movement the side taking way less wagers have been covering or winning outright.
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Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:
Your entire system is based on a fictitious number
Where did you get that 79% number, how was it attained?
Don't say here at Covers
I'm guessing you're on Seattle, lol. With all due respect I've seen your picks and you make some great choices and plays, but we're trying to figure out the trap games. The other night you said Duq should be -6 against Richmond and they lost outright. I told you that was a trap, and same thing yesterday with Elon. I haven't dug into this one yet, but I have noticed alot of games with big reverse line movement the side taking way less wagers have been covering or winning outright.
Cmoult I've noticed it a lot lately. But as I go through all the solid people on here most of then are also on the fishy line so I always go against it and those are the bets ive noticed have been losing for me
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Cmoult I've noticed it a lot lately. But as I go through all the solid people on here most of then are also on the fishy line so I always go against it and those are the bets ive noticed have been losing for me
I'm guessing you're on Seattle, lol. With all due respect I've seen your picks and you make some great choices and plays, but we're trying to figure out the trap games. The other night you said Duq should be -6 against Richmond and they lost outright. I told you that was a trap, and same thing yesterday with Elon. I haven't dug into this one yet, but I have noticed alot of games with big reverse line movement the side taking way less wagers have been covering or winning outright.
Ok...Good luck with the sytem- I don't attribute up those losses to what you are chalking them up too. It's a falacy:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is often shortened simply to post hoc fallacy.
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Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:
I'm guessing you're on Seattle, lol. With all due respect I've seen your picks and you make some great choices and plays, but we're trying to figure out the trap games. The other night you said Duq should be -6 against Richmond and they lost outright. I told you that was a trap, and same thing yesterday with Elon. I haven't dug into this one yet, but I have noticed alot of games with big reverse line movement the side taking way less wagers have been covering or winning outright.
Ok...Good luck with the sytem- I don't attribute up those losses to what you are chalking them up too. It's a falacy:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is often shortened simply to post hoc fallacy.
As again I see this line and % on Seattle but I see all the good cappers on seattke also, so normally if take Seattle and it will end up losing. I don't touch lines where the spread moves accordingly. Most ppl backed michigan yesterday and the line went down 2 points. That makes sense to me. Seattle has moved half a point
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As again I see this line and % on Seattle but I see all the good cappers on seattke also, so normally if take Seattle and it will end up losing. I don't touch lines where the spread moves accordingly. Most ppl backed michigan yesterday and the line went down 2 points. That makes sense to me. Seattle has moved half a point
Lmao yes I get your math equation. My theory is vegas knows more than we do and can manipulate the lines by placing large wagers against lines. So if the public is on a team and vegas bets the opposite line to keep the spread lower, the public will be all over it. Like Seattle tonight
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Lmao yes I get your math equation. My theory is vegas knows more than we do and can manipulate the lines by placing large wagers against lines. So if the public is on a team and vegas bets the opposite line to keep the spread lower, the public will be all over it. Like Seattle tonight
Cmoult I've noticed it a lot lately. But as I go through all the solid people on here most of then are also on the fishy line so I always go against it and those are the bets ive noticed have been losing for me
I think people are really looking for a magic easy and simple formula to pick winners... I don't know if its just because they don't have time to really dig into the matchups, or it's just too tedious.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:
Cmoult I've noticed it a lot lately. But as I go through all the solid people on here most of then are also on the fishy line so I always go against it and those are the bets ive noticed have been losing for me
I think people are really looking for a magic easy and simple formula to pick winners... I don't know if its just because they don't have time to really dig into the matchups, or it's just too tedious.
As again I see this line and % on Seattle but I see all the good cappers on seattke also, so normally if take Seattle and it will end up losing. I don't touch lines where the spread moves accordingly. Most ppl backed michigan yesterday and the line went down 2 points. That makes sense to me. Seattle has moved half a point
Here's the one's I noticed yesterday off memory with reverse line movement of 1.5 points or more: Elon -2.5, down to 1 buy tip off, Tulane down 2.0 points by tip off, MTS down 2 points by tip off, but alot of people actually liked the dog in that one and MTS covered. Marist dropped 2.5 points by start.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:
As again I see this line and % on Seattle but I see all the good cappers on seattke also, so normally if take Seattle and it will end up losing. I don't touch lines where the spread moves accordingly. Most ppl backed michigan yesterday and the line went down 2 points. That makes sense to me. Seattle has moved half a point
Here's the one's I noticed yesterday off memory with reverse line movement of 1.5 points or more: Elon -2.5, down to 1 buy tip off, Tulane down 2.0 points by tip off, MTS down 2 points by tip off, but alot of people actually liked the dog in that one and MTS covered. Marist dropped 2.5 points by start.
I think people are really looking for a magic easy and simple formula to pick winners... I don't know if its just because they don't have time to really dig into the matchups, or it's just too tedious.
The way I see it, I know and see alot of people that spend countless hours digging into the matchups and the data and still get it wrong. I like to simplify my strategy and just look at line movement and think of which side the books want you to take. There is no 100% way to do it, but it works pretty decent for me.
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Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:
I think people are really looking for a magic easy and simple formula to pick winners... I don't know if its just because they don't have time to really dig into the matchups, or it's just too tedious.
The way I see it, I know and see alot of people that spend countless hours digging into the matchups and the data and still get it wrong. I like to simplify my strategy and just look at line movement and think of which side the books want you to take. There is no 100% way to do it, but it works pretty decent for me.
Yeah I saw those too. Yesterday I went 9-7 with spreads and 11-3-1 with over unders. App st went into overtime and pushed one of my unders. But the ganes I lost were elon and Marist lmao. Thats why I'm,doing this. There's something going on cause all the lines that statistically don't make sense but the public eats up has lost. When the line moves towards the public I think that line is correct when it moves towards the team everyone is betting on. I think slmething is going on. Thank you Cmoult for making feel like I'm not crazy hahaha
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Yeah I saw those too. Yesterday I went 9-7 with spreads and 11-3-1 with over unders. App st went into overtime and pushed one of my unders. But the ganes I lost were elon and Marist lmao. Thats why I'm,doing this. There's something going on cause all the lines that statistically don't make sense but the public eats up has lost. When the line moves towards the public I think that line is correct when it moves towards the team everyone is betting on. I think slmething is going on. Thank you Cmoult for making feel like I'm not crazy hahaha
Ive been slwly gaining a bankroll but ive only been doing good with over unders, so inhavent really noticed what ice been doing wrong into I looked into the games I've been getting wrong and I honestly can't remember ever winning a game where the line moved. In favor toward the team everyone was betting on
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Ive been slwly gaining a bankroll but ive only been doing good with over unders, so inhavent really noticed what ice been doing wrong into I looked into the games I've been getting wrong and I honestly can't remember ever winning a game where the line moved. In favor toward the team everyone was betting on
QUOTE Here is a little something I picked up too: When 2 good teams play each other and you feel like the dog can keep it within the number and the spread is too high, that's usually when you want to bet the favorite. When you feel the favorite can easily cover the spread no matter what it is, that's when you want to be on the dog. This doesn't work 100% and I haven't tracked the data and examples, but I'm sure it's around 70%.
Whats the defintion of a good team?
So in a nutshell you are hitting 70% on betting the opposite of your oringinal thought on the play?
Is that correct?
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Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:
QUOTE Here is a little something I picked up too: When 2 good teams play each other and you feel like the dog can keep it within the number and the spread is too high, that's usually when you want to bet the favorite. When you feel the favorite can easily cover the spread no matter what it is, that's when you want to be on the dog. This doesn't work 100% and I haven't tracked the data and examples, but I'm sure it's around 70%.
Whats the defintion of a good team?
So in a nutshell you are hitting 70% on betting the opposite of your oringinal thought on the play?
The way I see it, I know and see alot of people that spend countless hours digging into the matchups and the data and still get it wrong. I like to simplify my strategy and just look at line movement and think of which side the books want you to take. There is no 100% way to do it, but it works pretty decent for me.
of course, these are all coin tosses..Keep us updated
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Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:
The way I see it, I know and see alot of people that spend countless hours digging into the matchups and the data and still get it wrong. I like to simplify my strategy and just look at line movement and think of which side the books want you to take. There is no 100% way to do it, but it works pretty decent for me.
of course, these are all coin tosses..Keep us updated
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
I say hell no. People are still gonna lose money on whatever strategy they use. Books will still rake in the vig till the end of time.
I've had a theory for a while now, I call it the "Johnny Keyboard" theory. Johnny is a guy who blindly fades the public ALL the time after looking at some of these bet% sites. I think there are a lot of Johnny's out there, just a thought. Seriously...I see soooo much RLM it's almost automatic these days.
Bottom line, gotta cap the games through and through.
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Each game is it's own.
There's various ways of finding value to a line.
Sharps aren't ALWAYS right.
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
I say hell no. People are still gonna lose money on whatever strategy they use. Books will still rake in the vig till the end of time.
I've had a theory for a while now, I call it the "Johnny Keyboard" theory. Johnny is a guy who blindly fades the public ALL the time after looking at some of these bet% sites. I think there are a lot of Johnny's out there, just a thought. Seriously...I see soooo much RLM it's almost automatic these days.
Bottom line, gotta cap the games through and through.
I'm not saying bet against the public every time. I'm saying when the soread doesnt move and the public is heavily on one side. Games like yesterday when 70% are backing michigan and the line goes from 11.5 to 9.5 throughout the day as more people bet michigan... I'm,saying when the public is heavy on a side and the line barely moves or gies in favor of the team everyone is betting kn
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I'm not saying bet against the public every time. I'm saying when the soread doesnt move and the public is heavily on one side. Games like yesterday when 70% are backing michigan and the line goes from 11.5 to 9.5 throughout the day as more people bet michigan... I'm,saying when the public is heavy on a side and the line barely moves or gies in favor of the team everyone is betting kn
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
.
Because Books don't catogorize bets and bettors and report that info to websites..
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Each game is it's own.
There's various ways of finding value to a line.
Sharps aren't ALWAYS right.
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
.
Because Books don't catogorize bets and bettors and report that info to websites..
So in a nutshell you are hitting 70% on betting the opposite of your oringinal thought on the play?
Is that correct?
I don't want to mislead anyone, (I haven't tracked the date and hit rate so 70% was just throwing a number out there, but it seems to work more often then not) but just a recap of reverse line movement over the last few days that I remember, day before yesterday Nevada and Duquesne were ones where the line dropped 1.5 points or more, however Duquesne line went back up by tip off by 2.5 points I believe after dropping 2. Alot of people giving input on that game had this mad love for Duquesne, playing at home, good record vs bad record. Again I don't get into all that Kenpom, RPI stuff. I just use my good old espn app, look at the records, what the teams have been doing in recent games and who the obvious pick should be. Nevada was red hot going into Wyoming and taking most of the wagers, but that line dropped 3 points by tip off. I can go on and on about several games the last few days, Gonzaga last night, BYU St. Marys last night, also which I thought the total was way too low, which is what alot of people thought, 137.5. Those 2 teams average over 150 points per game combined, (high powered offenses). So that triggered me to think I was getting great value in 137.5 and should be an easy over right? I even saw another thread on here last night where someone had 10 units on the over. Guess what the total ended at? 137 lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:
Whats the defintion of a good team?
So in a nutshell you are hitting 70% on betting the opposite of your oringinal thought on the play?
Is that correct?
I don't want to mislead anyone, (I haven't tracked the date and hit rate so 70% was just throwing a number out there, but it seems to work more often then not) but just a recap of reverse line movement over the last few days that I remember, day before yesterday Nevada and Duquesne were ones where the line dropped 1.5 points or more, however Duquesne line went back up by tip off by 2.5 points I believe after dropping 2. Alot of people giving input on that game had this mad love for Duquesne, playing at home, good record vs bad record. Again I don't get into all that Kenpom, RPI stuff. I just use my good old espn app, look at the records, what the teams have been doing in recent games and who the obvious pick should be. Nevada was red hot going into Wyoming and taking most of the wagers, but that line dropped 3 points by tip off. I can go on and on about several games the last few days, Gonzaga last night, BYU St. Marys last night, also which I thought the total was way too low, which is what alot of people thought, 137.5. Those 2 teams average over 150 points per game combined, (high powered offenses). So that triggered me to think I was getting great value in 137.5 and should be an easy over right? I even saw another thread on here last night where someone had 10 units on the over. Guess what the total ended at? 137 lol.
So you're saying each bet placed can't be tracked and documented with all this technology we have now?
So when I go up to the window and make a $25 bet, they look me over and mark me and my bet down as a public wager, and when the retard Floyd Mayweather makes his $10,000 bet it goes in the "Sharp" catgory, and then they call up covers and give them that completely subjective info?
Lol...what in the world!?
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Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:
So you're saying each bet placed can't be tracked and documented with all this technology we have now?
So when I go up to the window and make a $25 bet, they look me over and mark me and my bet down as a public wager, and when the retard Floyd Mayweather makes his $10,000 bet it goes in the "Sharp" catgory, and then they call up covers and give them that completely subjective info?
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
I say hell no. People are still gonna lose money on whatever strategy they use. Books will still rake in the vig till the end of time.
I've had a theory for a while now, I call it the "Johnny Keyboard" theory. Johnny is a guy who blindly fades the public ALL the time after looking at some of these bet% sites. I think there are a lot of Johnny's out there, just a thought. Seriously...I see soooo much RLM it's almost automatic these days.
Bottom line, gotta cap the games through and through.
This is true , each game is it's own and crazy things happen. I just don't have the time or don't want to put the effort to go through the data so I just simplify it for myself, lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Each game is it's own.
There's various ways of finding value to a line.
Sharps aren't ALWAYS right.
It's been quite a while now that various public bet %'s have been available on various sites on the internet. Some people think they are fake, who knows maaaybe some aren't accurate. I think they are true, why wouldn't they be? As if these sites are "out to get us" or "trick us"
I say hell no. People are still gonna lose money on whatever strategy they use. Books will still rake in the vig till the end of time.
I've had a theory for a while now, I call it the "Johnny Keyboard" theory. Johnny is a guy who blindly fades the public ALL the time after looking at some of these bet% sites. I think there are a lot of Johnny's out there, just a thought. Seriously...I see soooo much RLM it's almost automatic these days.
Bottom line, gotta cap the games through and through.
This is true , each game is it's own and crazy things happen. I just don't have the time or don't want to put the effort to go through the data so I just simplify it for myself, lol.
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