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Air Force / UNLV Total

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YTD: 26-15 (63.4%)

1-0 last play, winning the Weber St / Northern Colorado over on 2/23

Short on time since tip off is less than an hour away

Play: Air Force / UNLV Under 130.5

This won't be a popular play since UNLV comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency and tempo ranked in the top 50 nationally, but the historical trends in this match up are too hard to ignore.  In the 10 meetings since Jeff Reynolds came to Air Force as head coach in 2008, not once has the total exceeded today's total--this includes an overtime game in their first meeting this year.  Not only have none of their meetings gone over today's total, this is actually the highest posted total during that span.

Now I know that players have changed, but coaching style with respect to tempo has not. In the last 5 years, Air Force has ranked in the bottom 25 with respect to tempo every year. UNLV has averaged between 65.2 and 69.5 possessions per game during this time. Ten games across a five year sample is significant enough in my opinion to think that today's tempo should be no different than previous meetings and be in the low 60's.  Not only will there be a slower pacer, but UNLV brings a defense to the game that only allows 0.931 pts per possession (#39).

Lastly, since the spread is 16.5 points, there shouldn't be any late game scramble points and I can see the Rebels taking their foot off of the gas in the later stages of the game with a big lead.

Good luck if you decide to make a play
 
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Posted: #2


Looks good. Points might be worth a look as well.
 
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Posted: #3
Ricco,

Just want to make sure you're aware Reynolds got fired a few weeks ago?



Stay hot my friend!
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Ricco,

Just want to make sure you're aware Reynolds got fired a few weeks ago?



Stay hot my friend!


Excellent point. In my haste to make my post, I didn't include all of my notes

I was trying to illustrate the point that Air Force has routinely slowed the pace down vs UNLV in previous meetings since it is their only chance at keeping the game close. Since Reynolds was fired, the possessions in their games have been 68, 60, 63, and 60 vs TCU in their last game. Significant since TCU is the 2nd fastest team in the MWC behind UNLV.

Thanks for making me clarify the comparison I was trying to make
 
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Yeah I dunno about the under here.  Air Force has handed losses to Wyoming and SD st last week and UNLV can light up the scoreboard at home.  My number came out to 131.5.  I'm seeing it at 130 to 130.5 now.  Better hope bellfield and Mozillaaa come out flat and Stanbacks knee is still bothering him.

GL! Nice record on the season
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Boilermaker:

Yeah I dunno about the under here.  Air Force has handed losses to Wyoming and SD st last week and UNLV can light up the scoreboard at home.  My number came out to 131.5.  I'm seeing it at 130 to 130.5 now.  Better hope bellfield and Mozillaaa come out flat and Stanbacks knee is still bothering him.

GL! Nice record on the season


I can appreciate your hesitation, but I think your points actually point to why the under may be the play here. They were able to minimize the possession in those two games and win them despite not scoring 60 points in either game.

GL today
 
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Posted: #7
thanks , you have any feel on the over with ucsb and cpoly later?
 
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Posted: #8
good luck riccio
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:



Excellent point. In my haste to make my post, I didn't include all of my notes

I was trying to illustrate the point that Air Force has routinely slowed the pace down vs UNLV in previous meetings since it is their only chance at keeping the game close. Since Reynolds was fired, the possessions in their games have been 68, 60, 63, and 60 vs TCU in their last game. Significant since TCU is the 2nd fastest team in the MWC behind UNLV.

Thanks for making me clarify the comparison I was trying to make


 
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Posted: #10
lets go under.....
 
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Posted: #11
One good leading indicator is checking closing lines at Pinnacle, they are pretty sharp overseas book.  They have 130.5 under at -113 right now.  That definitely supports your play.  Good chance if you are on the same side Pinnacle likes.


 
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Posted: #12
over here. good luck though
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by LockBurger:

thanks , you have any feel on the over with ucsb and cpoly later?


Very difficult to determine the pace you may see in this one in my opinion. Obviously in backing a Cal Poly over last week, it was based on the angle that they speed things up when playing above average paced teams. Today however they go against UCSB who is the 4th slowest paced team in the Big West (#244 nationally). Only 56 possessions in their first meeting scares me away from the over too.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Boilermaker:

One good leading indicator is checking closing lines at Pinnacle, they are pretty sharp overseas book.  They have 130.5 under at -113 right now.  That definitely supports your play.  Good chance if you are on the same side Pinnacle likes.



why would that support his play? they opened up at 129 and went up a point...
 
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Posted: #15
Throw in AF +17 and ML +1300 into a couple parlays with the under. If AF holds UNLV under 70 they have a great chance to cover. They should run the "burn" as they are smart enough not to run with the Rebels.....

bol
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Throw in AF +17 and ML +1300 into a couple parlays with the under. If AF holds UNLV under 70 they have a great chance to cover. They should run the "burn" as they are smart enough not to run with the Rebels.....

bol

thats a big IF...i hate taking air force, but they...but im on it too..GL!
 
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Posted: #18
my line is 130
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Throw in AF +17 and ML +1300 into a couple parlays with the under. If AF holds UNLV under 70 they have a great chance to cover. They should run the "burn" as they are smart enough not to run with the Rebels.....

bol


Good luck on the parlays, TRAIN 

Only once in L5 years have the Rebels exceeded 70 points in this match up
 
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Posted: #20
gl Riccio 
 
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Posted: #21
2nd half under?
 
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Posted: #22
37-23 at the half

Lost a little bit of our buffer with 16 total points scored in the last 3:07 of the half.  Also, a little faster pace than I expected with ~34 possessions in the first half

Adjusted game line is 129.5


 
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Posted: #23
that late barrage of deep 3's and and 1's hurt....this should be interesting..
 
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good W...
 
 
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good job riccio  , Do you have to be that successful ?
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