2012 Kempom System

appreciate the response. makes lot of sense

Interested for sure here. Thanks in advance KP

Going to go ahead and post this play now (writeup will be brief): I'll be on Greensboro +2 (looks like it might tip over to 2.5 if 5dimes reduced juice is any indication).  This is a matchup/situational play for me, its currently my normal 1-unit flat bet play.  I'm waiting on word about UNCG's leading scorer Trevis Simpson.  I believe he'll play but I'm actually waiting to hear how he is doing with the turf toe injury that caused him to miss a game (two games back) and he did play this weekend but turf toe lingers and sometimes a few days later your in more pain than before.  As I said, I think he plays, just not sure how many minutes.  On to the brief writeup: UNCG is one of the deepest teams in the country going 9 deep and playing tons of bench minutes (#29 in the country), while Wofford has one of the shortest benches in the country (ranked 343 out of 345 teams in bench minutes).  UNCG plays a very fast tempo as well and with this being the end of a long season and series of games, think its a good spot for Greensboro to wear Wofford down (Wofford is a very inefficient offensive team anyway).  One of my theories of the new system is that there are tons of mediocre teams in NCAA and this is a perfect example as Wofford is ranked 189 by Kenpom while Greensboro is 263 and these teams are nearly identical.  Greenboro played the #6 toughest SOS in the country and had a huge problem with playing time, roles and players attitudes, they started the season 2-14 (0-3 in conference) and their coach was fired.  28-year old assistent coach Wes Miller took over and the team took off under his "we are all in the together, play for each other" mentality.  Greensboro is 10-2 over there last 12 games and are 10-6 in the SoCon and now word has just surfaced that Greensboro will not take the interim tag of Miller and will start a nationwide search for a new coach.  Believe me when I say these kids are going to be playing hard for Miller and try to prove he is the man for the job.  Also, Greensboro can clinch the #1 seed and a bye in the SOCON tourney with a win today in their last home game of the season.  I have a few more angles but that is all for now.  I'm going to hold out hope of getting 2.5 or even 3 but as of right now it will be a 1-unit play unless I get word back that Simpson recovered will from Saturday's game.  Good luck with whatever you decide.

 I already liked this game. Greensboro has been good to me the few times I bet them. Thanks for the write up KP!

KP, let us know what you find out about Simpson. That will be the deciding factor for me in this game. Thanks for all your insight and hard work. 

Here is the last 8 times they have played:

I live in Greensboro when I'm not at school at UNC-CH and I am so shocked to see Greensboro's shot at a #1 seed at the conference tourney. This team was the ultimate fade material last season. When I first looked at the game I saw the "no-play" aspect of seeing Wofford as a -1 on the road...knew there was something I was missing. Thanks for the heads up Kine. If the line gets up to +3, I'll take it without news of Simpson, but I'm a bit more worried than you about it. The kid is dynamite in that conference.

I went 3-0 +$930 yesterday.. go fuck yourself and your system

No need to be an ass! So what you had one good day! Congrats.

 Thank you very much.

First, obviously I'm familiar with their past history (obviously its accounted for in the line), but how much weight do you give that when Wofford graduated four of their five starters from last year and have a total of two players who averaged over 2 pts per game on the entire roster.  Greensboro returned 4 of their 5 starters and 9 and their top 10 players.  That holds significantly more weight that results from players in the past that are no longer on Wofford's roster

Anyone know which web site has a more accuracy rating? Thanks

Sounds like the play is if Trevis Simpson is going to play, if not then I wouldn't wager.

at 2.5 now, hoping to grab 3

UNCG is 6-2 ATS in the last three weeks, that is the very definition of "substance" the opposite of "hype." 

How can there be "hype" around a team that is still being made an underdog at home, that is the very definition of "undervalued" the opposite of "hype."

This is a classic example of why I haven't been posting my plays on covers. 

First, nowhere did I say this game was a "lock" or even a great play.  I simply pointed out the reason why they started 2-14 (one of the toughest SOS in the country, conflicting roles and bad player attitudes).  Its a one-unit play because I feel there is value in the line due to the fact that Wofford has a long winning streak against Greensboro and that everyone (linesmakers included) remembers Greensboro starting the season 2-14 and fired their coach mid-season. 

Also, didn't say that there was a significant advantage in having 4 of 5 returning starters, at this point of the season who in the world would even use that as an angle?  Only mentioned it because of the past history angle. 

I also didn't say that Greensboro SHOULD be favored by 3-5 pts, you made that number up yourself.  This thread (and the system in general) is all about finding value and betting on undervalued teams in certain situations.  Not only is this value when you look at the matchups and recent play, there is also value in the "situational" aspect as well as its Greensboro's last home game of the season (senior night) and they can clinch the number seed with a win AND they are fighting for the coach that turned their season around and trying to get him the head coaching job for the future.  Putting all those aspects together makes nice value on Greensboro to be sure.  (I'm hoping I'm not jinxing this game into a 20-pt loss by writing 3,000+ words on it)

LET ME BE CLEAR.  I'm all for ANYONE coming in this thread and giving an opposing opinion of any game (that is what this forum should be about), you posted the obvious recent history between the two teams and I responded with why it really makes no difference at all as this is an entirely different Wofford team from in their recent past. 

It just makes absolutely no sense to say you not buying into Greensboro hype when they have been one of the best teams in the country ATS for the entire month of February and yet they are still getting no respect from linemakers. 

Now had you came in here and mentioned Wofford's recent form, or their great turnover %, or the fact that they are a solid defensive rebounding team, those are all valid points in the favor of Wofford (despite the fact that I believe Greensboro's depth and playing on their home court counteracts those Wofford strengths).

If you have read ANY writeup I have posted over the past four years you know that I always say this is a basketball game and ANYTHING can happen, but if we are always getting our money in on the undervalued side, or on the better matchup side, or on the better situational play, or even better, some combination of the three - we will have a great chance to win money. 

If, by my first write-up, I "hyped" Greensboro too much or made it seem like I think this bet is a "sure thing" I completely apologize, that was not my intention.  I just wanted to point out the factors that made me think that Greensboro was a solid investment tonight.  Riblet, please don't feel like this is an attack on you, I thought it best just to handle this now as I was planning on posting many of my own plays in this thread and I'm sure this situation will probably occur again. 

Two games ago, when Simpson missed, Greensboro beat College of Charleston by 15 points

First let me say, I'm new to covers but was lurking for a few weeks and I appreciate your insight.

When you were recapping your reasons to value, the biggest angle that points to Greensboro is the news (to me) about their coach not getting the interim tag lifted.  Couple that with final home game and you are likely to get a rallying of the troops that will bode well for Greensboro.

Only thing that makes me a bit leery is the contrasting styles of the two teams and that it turns into a slow-paced slugfest. 

Thanks for your insight and am very intrigued by your system.  I really like that it's a system predicated on some logic (along with data) rather than SOLELY based on data centered around random factors in which correlation often gets misinterpreted for causation.

KP didn't mean to offend you and if I did I apologize