Posted:
#1076
After 5 - 2 Monday . . .
YTD: 107 - 56 
[42 - 15 *Best Bets]
🍀🍀🍀 NCAA MEN's: 201 - 103 ... +75.96u
Posted:
#1085
Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:
Sooooooo question,
Sooooooo question,
you seem to have a certain number in your head to wait for in game with certain picks.
How do you pick and choose your spots with all these games on the slate?
BOL going forward, as you seem to know what you're doing.
@tvigilante2020
For my style of handicapping, it all starts with my master list of ratings (not sequential rankings!)
I use these to assess to compare the opponents (opps) I keep a scale which has been very good to me over the years that suggests a tiny range of pts a team should be favored (pertinent to the venue) against the rating of their opponent.
For fictitious example:
Level 7 team playing on the road AT Level 6 team.
All else being equal - which it usually IS NOT - but for discussion sake let's say this one is, then in my method, due to homecourt advantage and facing against a team rated just one level lower but still close, then **ALL** home teams in the same comparison (7 vs 6) should be listed at between -4.0 to -6.0 pts. Of course I want/need a line cheaper than that if I like the home team!
However, many times the actual odds are outside this range and THOSE are the games I investigate. Often the Vegas odds are due to a player out or questionable. Other times it is due to public misperception. And others due to a revenge match....etc, etc, etc....
My capping focuses primarily on which team will win SU, NOT which team will cover (typically a 50-50 coin-flip!)
So, if I like a team for a very strong chance to win SU, but the juice is too high to risk (like -500 or such) then I look at the pt spread - hoping to make MY LIVE BET on odds which are significantly distant from the over-priced Vegas odds that are above my range for these opponents. Thus, a Vegas line like -7.5 when I have it rated for -4 to -6 only, THAT is when I favor the team to win SU (LEAN) but the ml and spread are too high pre-game.....I need to view the early goings to see a significant DROP in the odds (ml or spread) *BELOW* the 4 to 6 range (push territory)
Such a game would be "LEAN but hoping to get -3 or better during LIVE play"
Posted:
#1088
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020: Sooooooo question, you seem to have a certain number in your head to wait for in game with certain picks. How do you pick and choose your spots with all these games on the slate? BOL going forward, as you seem to know what you're doing. @tvigilante2020 For my style of handicapping, it all starts with my master list of ratings (not sequential rankings!) I use these to assess to compare the opponents (opps) I keep a scale which has been very good to me over the years that suggests a tiny range of pts a team should be favored (pertinent to the venue) against the rating of their opponent. For fictitious example: Level 7 team playing on the road AT Level 6 team. All else being equal - which it usually IS NOT - but for discussion sake let's say this one is, then in my method, due to homecourt advantage and facing against a team rated just one level lower but still close, then **ALL** home teams in the same comparison (7 vs 6) should be listed at between -4.0 to -6.0 pts. Of course I want/need a line cheaper than that if I like the home team! However, many times the actual odds are outside this range and THOSE are the games I investigate. Often the Vegas odds are due to a player out or questionable. Other times it is due to public misperception. And others due to a revenge match....etc, etc, etc.... My capping focuses primarily on which team will win SU, NOT which team will cover (typically a 50-50 coin-flip!) So, if I like a team for a very strong chance to win SU, but the juice is too high to risk (like -500 or such) then I look at the pt spread - hoping to make MY LIVE BET on odds which are significantly distant from the over-priced Vegas odds that are above my range for these opponents. Thus, a Vegas line like -7.5 when I have it rated for -4 to -6 only, THAT is when I favor the team to win SU (LEAN) but the ml and spread are too high pre-game.....I need to view the early goings to see a significant DROP in the odds (ml or spread) *BELOW* the 4 to 6 range (push territory) Such a game would be "LEAN but hoping to get -3 or better during LIVE play"
Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020: Sooooooo question, you seem to have a certain number in your head to wait for in game with certain picks. How do you pick and choose your spots with all these games on the slate? BOL going forward, as you seem to know what you're doing. @tvigilante2020 For my style of handicapping, it all starts with my master list of ratings (not sequential rankings!) I use these to assess to compare the opponents (opps) I keep a scale which has been very good to me over the years that suggests a tiny range of pts a team should be favored (pertinent to the venue) against the rating of their opponent. For fictitious example: Level 7 team playing on the road AT Level 6 team. All else being equal - which it usually IS NOT - but for discussion sake let's say this one is, then in my method, due to homecourt advantage and facing against a team rated just one level lower but still close, then **ALL** home teams in the same comparison (7 vs 6) should be listed at between -4.0 to -6.0 pts. Of course I want/need a line cheaper than that if I like the home team! However, many times the actual odds are outside this range and THOSE are the games I investigate. Often the Vegas odds are due to a player out or questionable. Other times it is due to public misperception. And others due to a revenge match....etc, etc, etc.... My capping focuses primarily on which team will win SU, NOT which team will cover (typically a 50-50 coin-flip!) So, if I like a team for a very strong chance to win SU, but the juice is too high to risk (like -500 or such) then I look at the pt spread - hoping to make MY LIVE BET on odds which are significantly distant from the over-priced Vegas odds that are above my range for these opponents. Thus, a Vegas line like -7.5 when I have it rated for -4 to -6 only, THAT is when I favor the team to win SU (LEAN) but the ml and spread are too high pre-game.....I need to view the early goings to see a significant DROP in the odds (ml or spread) *BELOW* the 4 to 6 range (push territory) Such a game would be "LEAN but hoping to get -3 or better during LIVE play"
Hope that answers your Q 
Posted:
#1091
Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:
@fubah2 I guess you can't give us a peak on how you create your master list of ratings?
@fubah2 I guess you can't give us a peak on how you create your master list of ratings?
Correctamundos, mon frere!
I consider that decades long effort *CLASSIFIED* TOP SECRET.
However I do share the end results of my capping (utilizing my formulas) with my posted bets.
2024:
NFL final: 123 - 49 71.5% [39 - 13 *Best Bets 75.0%]
CFB final: 215 - 99 68.5% [95 - 31 *Best Bets 75.4%]
MLB final: 186 - 117 61.4% [71 - 44 *BestBets 61.8%]
CBk final: 201 - 103 66.1% [76 - 29 *Best Bets 72.3%]
WNCAA: 57 - 21 73.0% [31 - 9 *Best Bets 77.5%]
Posted:
#1092
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...
On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...
HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win then a loss....
They lost last game. They ARE the better team on the season for sure!
LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle
Posted:
#1093
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today... HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win then a loss.... They lost last game. They ARE the better team on the season for sure! LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today... HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win then a loss.... They lost last game. They ARE the better team on the season for sure! LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle
...or....they might PHUCK-it_all-UP and lose 2 consecutive to weaker opponents - just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... 
Posted:
#1095
Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:
@fubah2 "just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... " _________________ UConn has been in flux all season with their top scorer out and everyone smelling blood in the water. They have around a month to right the ship and lock it in, so I guess we'll see.
@fubah2 "just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... " _________________ UConn has been in flux all season with their top scorer out and everyone smelling blood in the water. They have around a month to right the ship and lock it in, so I guess we'll see.
Yes, good point. Losing McNealy for all of January was a problem. Oddly they are just 1 - 2 since his return and are threatening to LOSE tonight to another weaker opp...
Posted:
#1100
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...
HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it!....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win then a loss....They lost last game.
They ARE the better team on the season for sure!
LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle
My Yukon SledDogs! 
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