week 1, CFL, 2022

Respected or big money has come in on the Redblacks moving the line from 9.5 (and there were 10s out there at various times in the week) to 6.5.  I woke up and saw the line move 3 points and I thought maybe Collaros would be out.

Happens frequently in early season  CFL.  No major injuries that I can see....I'd love it if the Redblacks would win this week so I could back the Bombers next week at Ottawa.

Line continues to grow in the Lions/Elks game.....up to 4.5.....the preseason season wins totals for the Lions is 6.5 -115 and for the Elks it is 6.5 -145, so there is quite the disparity between the long-term and short-term view of these two teams.

I'm adding another unit onto my previous Elks play.

Plays:

1)  Elks +3 1 unit and Elks +4.5 one unit

2)  Tiger Cats +115

3)  Redblacks +9.5

Expecting a line next week of Montreal +3.5 at the Argonauts....would gladly take the Alouettes if Montreal's line is above 3.

same that 9.5 looked amazing...went to bet it and see 6.5 couldnt figure out why unless an injury during a walkthru or something...has value been lost?

I don't espouse the whole thinking behind "value", but I am in the small minority of bettors that don't agree with the concept.  If the line looks off, especially if the line looks too low on a dog, I see it as a positive sign for the underdog.

Vegas flutters enticing lines to get people to buy things at a discount, no different than K-Mart who can't sell something at the original price.

Adding:

5)  Bombers/Redblacks UNDER 49

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4) Ottawa +9'............................estimated score RBs 24-17

3) Hamilton +115.......................estimated score HTC 18-15

2) Elks +3 one unit, +4' one unit..estimated score EE 23-20

1) Alouettes +3' .............................winner

Ottawa plays their hearts out....I'll be looking to back them this season...

1)  Montreal +3'.............winner

2)  Ottawa +9'..............winner

3)  Ottawa UNDER 49....winner

4)  Hamilton +115

5)  Edmonton +3 and +4.5 for two units

I am buying out of half of my Edmonton Elks play getting rid of my Elks +4.5 bet for even money....instead of two units I have a one unit play on them +3.

1)  Montreal +3'.............winner

2)  Ottawa +9'..............winner

3)  Ottawa UNDER 49....winner

4)  Hamilton +115

5)  Edmonton +3

Good fortune today everyone.

Adding:

6)  Hamilton/Saskatchewan UNDER 48

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5)  Edmonton +3

4)  Hamiton +115

Plays:

6)  Edmonton +3

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5)  Hamilton UNDER 48 winner

4)  Hamilton ML +115 loser

3)  Ottawa +9'...........winner

2)  Ottawa UNDER......winner

1)  Montreal +3'........winner

I was impressed with both teams in Cats/Riders game.....I expect them to be in the top 3 teams this season.  TC's offensive line might be a concern, but the Riders' front is very good, so tough to tell if  Hamilton's o-line is poor, or if it is a matter of having faced an elite defense.

I still don't trust Fajardo throwing the ball...his main weapon is avoiding trouble and running the ball....the Riders should be a good road team this season.  He is a slightly improved version of Zach Collaros, which is good enough in the right circumstances to get you a title.

Indigo early lines for week 2 for the teams that have already played in week 1

Home/away                  line

Argos/Als                   -3'  49

Redblacks/Bombers   +4   43

T'Cats/Stamps           -4   47

Yes, looking likely that Edmonton is gonna struggle for the first 8 games or so.  I obviously overestimated how much effect Chris Jones would have on this team early.  Excellent coaches with terrible teams tend to be covering machines in the second half of their initial seasons, when a combination of terrible early season results coupled with improvement, and the linemaker adjusting things upwards brings good results....they look untouchable right,....perhaps in a couple of months they'll be something to consider when they have gone through considerable growing pains and we start seeing double digit spreads.

Nathan Rourke already looks like a top 2 quarterback....who's better?....maybe no one right now.

First week of picks  went 4-2.

Week 2 early Indigo lines....expect now that with online betting in Canada that we see some bookmaker lines out by Tuesday.

Argos         -3'  51       Alouettes

Redblacks  +4 43        Bombers

Tiger Cats  -4  47        Stamps

Elks        +7   49        Riders

Big money moves went 3-0 on sides with Riders, Redblacks and Lions covering....the betting on OVERs paid lesser dividends as o/u went 2-2.  Bookmakers in making CFL lines are gonna have to get sharper than they have in past years, as they would've gotten killed this weekend.

Early leans to the Alouettes and Alouettes OVER, and Stamps UNDER.