week 1, CFL, 2022

Vernon Adams throwing 3 interceptions in a quarter and a half doesn't bode well for the Alouettes, especially since they are playing versus the non-starters of the Redblacks.  The Als for many years had the worst receivers in the league...they got rid of some, but the new ones don't look any better.

Adams oughta have a short lease this year as Trevor Harris is sitting on the bench waiting to play.

Als should have the best running attack in the league this year which covers up some qb deficiencies.

I predict Harris will be playing quite a bit this season, unless he comes on and throws picks, as he did in his first throw versus the Redblacks....four interceptions by the Als and the first half is not over yet.

Now, granted, the Redblacks last year had a decent defense that basically played 3/4 of every game while the Ottawa defense was doing 2 and out the whole game,...they got very worn down by the end of the season.

Hmm, that's Ottawa's offense that obviously was doing 2 and outs all game.

Maybe Ottawa's gonna be decent this year, sounds like they have some offensive line guys this time around.

Watching BC playing the Riders....nothing that I'm seeing is making me regret playing the Elks in game 1.

Week 1 plays....

1)  Elks +3

2)  Tiger Cats +1'

Sorry, senior moment.....lol.

Week 1 plays:

1)  Elks +3

2)  Tigers Cats +105

Note to self....do not bet baseball for anything over 5 dollars.

But yes, I am betting the USFL....if the dreaded posting your plays hex is to take place, let's get it out of the way before the CFL season starts in earnest, ok?

Plays:

1)  New Orleans Breakers +3, -115....I like this team and their scheme and I think the Stallions take their foot off the gas this week with a playoff spot locked up.

2)  Michigan Panthers +5'.....I think this team wins this week, though I'll take them with the points.....they finally found a quarterback and their rushing attack is very good.

3)  Oilers in regulation +160....do or die for them....I like desperate teams.

4)  Oilers/Avs to score more than 7 goals +145....I don't think you can stop this team twice in a row.....even if they don't win, there's gonna be a ton of goals scored in this game, as the Oilers realize they lose  a tight checking low scoring  game.

Breakers figure out myriad ways of losing the game....thankfully, the Stallions' kicker was awful.  Helps that on the opening drive of the game the Stallions fumbled on the one yard line, and though the Breakers lost, they get the money Honey for me.  I promised the gambling gods throughout  that I would never bet another game if they let me win, however, I did have my toes  and fingers crossed when I made that promise.

1)  Breakers +3 winner (9-10)

Edmonton can't get it done,....really off in my assessment

2)  Edmonton loser

3)  Edmonton OVER loser

1)  Breakers +3 winner

____________________

4)  Panthers +5'

5)  Warriors/Celtics UNDER 215'

6)  Tiger Cats +105 

7)  Elks +3

Not exactly what I would have wished for for the weekend

2)  Edmonton loser

3)  Edmonton OVER loser

1)  Breakers +3 winner

4)  Panthers +5' loser

5)  Warriors/Celtics UNDER 215' winner

_________________________________________

6)  Tiger Cats +105 

7)  Elks +3

Adding:

8)  Alouettes +3', -115

9)  Redbacks +9'

Numbers 8 and 9 are head versus gut plays.....week one has traditionally been all about dogs, especially if those teams were worse than their week 1 opponent were last season.  I'm not excited about taking the Alouettes or the Redblacks, but typically I rate technical plays higher than my gut and I play them anyway.  If one had blindly taken dogs in week one in the CFL, (or dogs the first four weeks for that matter) you would've been waaaaay, way ahead the last few years of the CFL.

So, we'll see how it all works out.  I am starting my new betting year off with the start of the CFL season....have taken a very big hit the last week to end up last betting year up 45 units, so I have not been on point lately but over the long haul I have won, so take that for what it is worth.

Spottie and Hoody have been great in the CFL, and probably there's some others too, so check out their threads.

If the Riders come a dog by game time I will cancel out of my Tiger Cats bet.....home dogs that made the playoffs previous season have been very, very good.

Early KOC betting percentages.....obviously punters are loving the home favorites...

Calgary 79%

Winnipeg 73%

Saskatchewan 63%

British Colombia 78%

I feel better about my plays..

Good luck this season! 

thanks buddy.

I did a study on how first year coaches did in college football as away favorites in their first game....they've been terrible against the spread

These teams fit those parameters...

Nevada @ New Mexico State

SMU @ North Texas

Virginia Tech @ ODU

TCU @ Colorado

Plays:

1)  Elks +3......line moved the wrong way....I am certainly not getting the love for a favorite that was a bad team last year,....Elks got crushed last preseason game, and perhaps bettors are using that as a valid analysis, hmm, I don't think so....I might bump this up to a 2 unit play if this stays at 4 or above.  I expected a line of 1.5 in this game.  76% of the King of Covers contest bettors are on the Lions.

2)  Redblacks +9'....this will look very ignorant if the Redblacks this year are what they were last year.  Most of the people in this thread know I am not above looking foolish, on hopefully rare occasions.   75% of the KOC bettors are on the Bombers.

3)  Alouettes +3'.....Calgary is something like 7-20 ATS in their 27 home games and even when they went to Grey Cups they performed badly in game 1 at home the next season.   Montreal has been a good road team.  I like what the new defensive coordinator did last year for the Als.  Now if Vernon throws three picks in the first half, it won't be good and we'd see Montreal's very expensive backup in a hopeless situation in the second half.  75% of the KOC bettors on the Stamps as of Wednesday.

4)  Hamilton +105 CANCELLED....the line is moving against me from as low as 1 now up to 2.5......I bought out and paid a 5% of my wager for the privilege (bet365)...I'd like to see if this gets up to 3 and I'd play it at that.  If not, I am 90% sure I'll take the Tiger Cats moneyline close to game time.

With all this love for the home favorites we'll see if the "Masses are asses", or if it's me.

They say if you sit down at a poker game, and you don't know who the sucker is, the reason is  because it's you......lol.

I am going through ESPN's preseason playoffs and season win totals analysis.....it makes me cringe everytime I look at their stuff.  They are the epitome of losing analysis.....  Their methodology is non-existent.

It consists of "hmmm, team A got a new quarterback and with their schedule they should get over their wins total of X wins for the season.....and then a lot of filler material that takes up space....it is visual diarrhea.  

No historical research to back up any of their assertions, and no record of how any of them have done in the past to validate if they have one iota of credibility.  "Hey ESPN, post your handicappers' records, will you?"

This is the age old question of fundamental analysis versus technical analysis...fundamental personnel looks at things like I've mentioned with no inkling that if a team has done xyz in the past, then this is more than likely to happen based on 20 years of data, which is technical handicapping.  

They are straight fade material.

Here is an example of excellent technical analysis....almost all of these teams predicted to rise are not on ESPN or anyone else's fundamental handicapping radar...I got these from VSIN.

From 2009-20, 75 teams had a positive turnover differential and won at least 10 games against the spread. Of that group, 52 had winning percentages that declined the following season (by an average of 10.5% SU and 11% ATS).
• Teams affected in 2022: Arizona, Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New England

From 2009-20, 37 teams had a season turnover differential of +5 or better and failed to reach the postseason. Of that group, only 14 improved their record the following season (11 made the playoffs).
• Teams affected in 2022: Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans

Since 2009-10, 12 teams declined by at least 31% ATS from the previous season. Of that group, all 12 had a turnover differential of +4 or better the prior season.
• Teams POTENTIALLY affected in 2022: Arizona, Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Seattle, Tampa Bay

From 2001-20, 48 teams won 10+ games despite scoring fewer than 23 points per game. Of that group, only eight improved and 37 declined the following season, with an average decline of 4.3 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Las Vegas

From 2000-20, 29 teams won less than 42% of their games despite scoring at least 22 points per game. Of that group, only four declined the following season, with an average improvement of 2.5 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Seattle

From 2000-20, 61 teams won less than 42% of their games despite allowing 23 points or less per game. Of that group, 43 (or 70.5%) improved the following season, with an average improvement of 3.65 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Denver, Seattle

Over the last 23 seasons, 29 teams won 10+ games despite allowing at least 23 points per game. Of that group, only three improved the following season,with an average decline of 2.83 wins.                                                                                           • Team affected in 2022: Las Vegas

Over the last 21 seasons, 12 teams scored at least 27 points per game and failed to make the postseason. Of that group, nine made the playoffs the following season, with two winning the Super Bowl (2009 Saints and 2020 Buccaneers). The combined record of those 12 teams in the following season was 119-74 (61.7%), with an average win total of 9.9. Las Vegas qualified for this system last season and went 10-7.
• Team affected for 2022: LA Chargers

Of the last 15 teams with a positive point differential and a losing record, all 15 improved or equaled their win total the following season. Eight of the 15 teams won at least 11 games the following season, with an average win total of 9.5 and an average improvement of 3.0 wins. Two Super Bowl champions came from this group (2017 Eagles and 2020 Buccaneers).
• Teams affected for 2022: Denver, Seattle

Of the last 27 teams with a negative point differential and a .500 or better record, only six improved the following season, with an average decline of 1.3 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Las Vegas, Miami, Pittsburgh

Of the last six teams that went 7-9 or worse despite a positive turnover and scoring differential, five made the playoffs the following season, with an average improvement of 4.2 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Denver, Seattle

Of the last 12 non-playoff teams with a negative turnover differential but a positive scoring differential, eight made the playoffs the following season, including the 2020 Buccaneers.
• Teams affected in 2022: LA Chargers, San Francisco, Tennessee

Of the last 40 playoff teams with a positive turnover differential but a negative scoring differential, only eight made the playoffs the following season.
• Teams affected in 2022: Houston, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

From 2009-20, 22 teams had a negative turnover differential and were outscored by more than 10 points per game. Of that group, 20 improved their record the following season, with an average improvement of 3.9 wins.
• Team affected in 2022: Jacksonville, N.Y. Jets

From 2009-20, 37 teams had a positive turnover differential and outscored opponents by more than 8.0 points per game. Of that group, only eight improved their record the following season, with an average decline of 2.4 wins.
• Teams affected in 2022: Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Tampa Bay

Man, i am excited. Usually avoid first two weeks but i love the analysis indigo. Lets kill it

As Elvis would say...."thankyouverymuch"

It'd be nice to get off to a good start, no?

Listed in the previous post is this for the NFL....

Of the last 27 teams with a negative point differential and a .500 or better record, only six improved the following season, with an average decline of 1.3 wins.

Now this historical analysis has not been done for the CFL, but the Argos fall into this, so without having actual hard data from the CFL (and I cannot find ANY turnover statistics from last year for the 9 teams)....I would say the Argos may regress.

Found some turnover stats....

Team     2021 turnover difference

Lions               +6

Elks                -12

Alouettes         -4

Stamps            -7

Riders           +14

Tiger Cats     +15

Redblacks       -5

Bombers        +7

Argos            -14(?)

Teams with high positive turnover difference tend to regress and those with bad turnover ratios tend to improve the following year.  Alouettes have a couple of positive indicators going into this season....first, they finished only at 500 this past season despite a very good average scoring differential.....second, their turnover margin was below zero.

Win +18

Sas +12

Ham +13

BC +10

Mon 0

Cal -8

Ott -13

Tor -14

Edm -18

Here's the quarterback stats from last season...

Player            Team          Yards per pass      TDs      Interceptions

Collaros         Bombers        9.2                    20               6

Fajardo          Riders           7.4                    14               11

Mitchell         Stamps          8.0                    10               13

B-Thompson  Argos            7.5                     12               11

Adams          Als                8.2                     14                9

Arbuckle       Elks               7.6                      5                6

Rourke          Lions            9.2                      3                 5

Evans           Cats             7.4                       6                3

Masoli          R'blacks        9.0                      10                6

I didn't realize that Mitchell's stats were so bad last season.   A winning formula in football is to have the better yards per pass stats and/or to outrush your opponent.  Montreal has a running quarterback and the best running back in the CFL.  If they have even an average turnover ratio this year, they will be a very good team to bet on.  

I read a very interesting article by the chief guy whose company owns every pro sports team in Toronto.  He had a very negative view of the CFL and his Toronto team, stating that for a 106 year old league, the value of the Argos was minimal.  The CFL has a difficult time attracting youngers fans, whereas their soccer, basketball and ice hockey teams sell out.   According to their research the biggest interest is in older age demographics for the CFL. 

If the initiation of sports betting in the CFL does not save the league this year, the CFL's days might be numbered....to me it is looking like they will have to partner with a USA league and go to USA football rules...4 downs, 11 players on the field etc., to survive.

@hoody

Thanks Hoody....I got my stats from statfox...evidently they were not accurate. 

Plays:

1)  Montreal +3' winner

BLM looks like he is done....he is nowhere near what he was, and the Stamps will have to make a decision that is difficult when an elite player has his skills erode and the backup is now better.  Meyer is clearly now the better player.  

Adams looks like the same guy...will make some Houdini plays with his legs, but will also make some inexplicable decisions.  I like Montreal this season as an underdog even if Stanbeck is out for multiple games or even the whole season.  I've mentioned before that running quarterbacks seem to be very good at covering on the road, but are average at best at home....we'll keep on eye on this this season.

2)  Ottawa +9'

3)  Edmonton +3

Will be on Hamilton at +3 if it gets to that, or on the moneyline if it doesn't.

2)  Ottawa +9'

3)  Edmonton +3

Adding:

4)  Tiger Cats +115....line has dropped to 2, and I don't think I'll get a +3.....still may add more to the Elks bet.