week 1, CFL, 2022

Lines are out! (bet365).  Indigo lines to the right, bookie's to the left.

Bombers-11'  43   Redblacks            -8    38

Stamps  -3'   44'    Alouettes            -3'   42  

Riders    -1'  43    Tiger-Cats            -3    40

Lions     -3   46'    Elks                    -1'    38

Bookmakers are thinking things are back to normal as far as scoring is concerned.  All totals are higher than I would have expected....LIKIN' IT!

Play:  

1)  Elks +3

Lean to all UNDERS.  First year starting qbs typically  struggle in the first month of their careers,...we'll see what the Lions bring with their new qb.  From the looks of the total, BC will not be coddling their guy, so we'd expect lots of footballs flying in this game.

Adding:

2)  Ottawa UNDER 43

3)  Hamilton UNDER 43

4)  Edmonton UNDER 46'

______________________

1)  Edmonton +3

Copying and pasting from a previous thread from last year as the CFL database is down....keep in mind that the CFL played four less games than in previous years last season.

Teams winning at least 4 games but less than 12 games last season as week 1:

a)  home favorites 7-14 ATS

b)  away favorites  2-5 ATS

c)  home dogs       8-2 ATS

d) away dogs       21-7 ATS

12>PRSW>3 and AD, AF, HF, HD and week=1

Teams winning 12 or more games from the previous season in week 1 as favorites though have been a horrendous 4-13 ATS as favs.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Playoff teams from the previous season in week 1 as:

a)  home favorites 10-18 ATS

b)  away favorites 2-11 ATS

c)  home dogs 7-1 ATS

d)  away dogs 13-6 ATS

Week 1 favorites that were playoff teams last season versus non-playoff teams last season....5-12 ATS

Week 1 favorites that were playoff teams last season versus playoff teams from last season....7-19 ATS

3)  Teams that missed the playoffs last season have been 17-6 ATS as away dogs first two weeks......Redblacks, Elks, Lions in 2022

4)  Take a dog who present opponent will be an underdog their next two games....112-43 ATS....Lions will be underdogs next two games after week 1 based on the season wins totals of Ottawa (game 3, week 4 opponent) and Toronto (game 2, week three opponent)....ON ELKS

Away dogs game numbers 1-4 that had a positive scoring margin from their last 6 regular season games the previous season......34-14 ATS.......Alouettes, Tiger Cats, Stampeders, Bombers

season=2019 and team and game number>12 and playoffs=0

tpS(margin, N=6)>0 and AD and game number<5

Teams that won 4 or 5 games out of their last 6 regular season games the previous season that are away dogs in game numbers 1-4.......30-7 ATS.....Bombers, Stampeders, Riders, Tiger Cats, Argonauts

tpS(W, N=6) and AD and game number<5

Teams that won  3 or less games out of their last 6 games in the regular season the previous season,  as home favorites in games 1-4......29-53 ATS.....Lions, Alouettes, Redblacks, Eskimos

If our play-against team above is either to be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite, this moves to 22-46 ATS.

tpS(W, N=6)<4 and HF and game number<5 and (n:D or on:F)

Plays........

Adding:

5)  Tiger Cats +105

________________________

4)  Elks UNDER 46'

3)  Tiger Cats UNDER 43

2)  Redblacks UNDER 43

1)  Elks +3

Bought out of my totals plays and paid a 6% surcharge....maybe I will get back on board closer to game time.

5)  Tiger Cats +105

________________________

4)  Elks UNDER 46'...................canceled

3)  Tiger Cats UNDER 43...........canceled

2)  Redblacks UNDER 43..........canceled

1)  Elks +3

Ottawa signing 17 players including many big names, 

In my opinion this team has the most upside.  Can they win, it might take some time to turn around the losing culture but covering will be there for them. 

Opposite goes for Winnipeg, but facing Ottawa in week 1 is a bit scary to bite on the dog early.  I actually want to see a Winnipeg cover here.   It will be interesting to see how many covers Winnipeg can get this season. I predict 9 at most, but I reserve the right to be wrong as Calgary had my number a few seasons as well. 

Lastly I predict the overs to come in early.  The lines were out of balance last year.  Should be more scoing like past seasons and see some totals above 55 and maybe even a 60 point total at some point.  

Week 1 could be 3 or 4 overs. 

Well, your vast worldwise influence might be causing lines to go up, as every total has moved up at least a point.

Ja, the totals started pretty low by CFL standards, it'd be nice to see some offense this season.

Last season through week 4 there were 15 games played.  In those games 17 teams scored 20 points or less.  Only 1 team scored more than 30 points. 

I wrote my statements without reading through your posts.  I have a notion that these low totals get exposed early. That would bring the lines level to past seasons levels.

I guess with all the moves in the off season, are the defenses up to that level again?  Do we see any kickoff return TD's?  So much on the table but it could be so close yet so far. 

Special teams TD's and pick 6's too.  In typical CFL fashion it could be a crazy wild start. 

CFL:
=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=
p:L and F and pp:DW ATS: 17-45-1 (-4.08, 27.4%)

-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=
108-44 D and week < 10 and (n:F or on:D) and t:wins <= o:wins and day != Saturday
=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=
88-45 AD and day != Sunday and week<18 and DIV and day!= Monday and total<=53
=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=
43-13 AD and day = Friday and week<12 and not DIV

=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-

34-6 AD and not DIV and day = Friday and line<10 and week <9
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==--==-=-
25-11 AD and op:points<14 and week >12
=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

16-4 ATS AD and week<10 and o:PRSW<15 and n:AF
-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-
76.52 ATS = AD and day= Saturday and week>12 and playoffs=0
-=-==-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
18.6 ATS = AD and day!= Sunday and week = 1 and PRSW>3

58.30 ATS = HD and day not Friday,Wednesday,Saturday,Monday
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
week 1 is very good at 6-1 for the HD, then it trends even but at week 7 and beyond :37-15 71.2% (adding in the week #1 6-1 ats record, 43-16 ATS)
-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
35.17 ats:
HD and day != Friday and day != Wednesday and day != Saturday and day != Monday and week>7
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
26-14 CFL Team =Any dog that has won less then 4 games the previous season and after week 1 and less the week 7
HD=7-4
AD=12-4
=--=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=

19-8 ATS 70.4%
D and PRSW<4 and week<7 and week>1
=--=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=
AD and DIV and day = Thursday and line<=10 and week<7

=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=
AD and not DIV and day = Friday and line<10 and week <9

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==--==-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
week < 7 and AD and DIV and day != Friday and day!= Monday
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==--==-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=

p:AD and ats streak>1 and AD and playoffs=0 17-6 ATS
==-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-
52-95=35%

p:F and ats streak>-2 and HF and week<16 and playoffs=0 and PRSW>5 and PRSW<15 
-==-=-=-=-=-=-=--

p:HF and ats streak>-2 and HF and week<16 and PRSW>5 and PRSW<15 =19-41 32% ATS 

p:HD and AF and ats streak < 0 and playoffs= 0       2-8 ATS

=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=
19-10

D and week = 2 and p:L 
=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-

AF and week <6 and not DIV 13-28 ATS,  18-22 SU
=--=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-

AF and week<6 and not DIV and line<-3.5

(8-11 SU with a line<=-4 those are some high ROI's)
-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-==-

Some of these might not be in play in week one.  

Thanks for sharing....I'll see if I can find the ones that are live for week 1 from your list.....

1)  43-13 ATS...........AD and day = Friday and week<12 and not DIV......Redblacks

2) 18-6 ATS..............AD and day!= Sunday and week = 1 and PRSW>3....Tiger Cats, Alouettes

From what I recall from last year, there were some terrible schemes offensively (Edmonton, Ottawa, Saskatchewan), almost no big turnover or special teams plays, and there were a couple of dominant defenses.  It is a bit strange, because in other sports, like basketball and ice hockey, scoring is at an all-time high.

They should have more pre-season practices, he obviously has more in the tank  

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10036651-ex-nfl-player-brendan-langley-arrested-after-fight-with-airport-employee-on-video.amp.html

Calgary down one CB 

Both Montreal and Ottawa are indicated plays by past history....Ottawa's line is down to +9.5....I don't like it....it smells fishy that money is coming in on them.  Yeah, they got some players, but they still have the same coach whose team looked horrendous last season.  They cover versus the champs in game 1 ok,...then maybe I'll be swayed.  I'll be checking them out first before I put any money on them.

Celtics opened up a +130 dog for the series versus the Warriors...that line is way off too.  "Value" bettors will jumping on board...I don't espouse the conventional wisdom that a smart player has to make their own line and then if the Vegas line differs you play the value.

Vegas is smarter than you and I, I've said it a 1000 times.  More times than not I see the advantage is going with the opposite side of value.

In the NBA I might get on board with the Celtics if they lose the first game, both in game 2 and in the series.  They've won and covered every time this playoffs after a loss, and by a ton of points.   They're off a very grueling series versus a very tough minded team.  I think there's a good chance they lose game 1.  I may just bet on them every game off a loss beyond game 1 and against them every game off a win.

Teams on the road in the playoffs after playing a game 7 have been 16-19 ATS (-1.89) and only 10-25 straight up, losing by an average of 9.57 points/game IF their present opponent isn't off a 7 game series win.

NBA finals angle....

When both teams are off at least 3 days rest, the home favorite in game 1 has been 11-1 ATS  (+5.29), and 11-1 straight up (+10.75), 4-8 o/u (-7.25)

Average line/total -5.5 195.2

Average score 99.3-88.6

NHL hockey game 7s....Panthers/Rangers

Game 7 home teams in the playoffs, off an away loss with one day's rest....

25-14 straight up (+3% ROI), 12-20-7 o/u,...those home teams have only been 9-30 on the puckline (-1.5)...if we calculate out that they average puckline has been +180/-200, you get an average ROI of -35% ROI by backing the home team on the puckline (-1.5) and an average ROI 15.3% by backing the away team at +1.5.

pppppppo:team!=o:team and ppppppo:team=o:team and H and p:AL and tS(W, N=6)=3 and playoffs=1

NBA finals....

Western conference teams in the NBA finals playing at home in game one when they are favored by less than 8 points......

13-0 ATS (+8.46), 13-0 straight up (+14.31)

Average line/total...........-5.8 199.8

Average score................102.8-88.5

round=4 and playoffs=1 and conference=Western and series game=1 and H and line>-8

Also, keep in mind guys that Spottie kicked butt in the King of Covers CFL contest last year placing in the top 5, he is like Jimmy Butler, he just refuses to lose.........hopefully he is using that same dartboard this season.....lol!

Dart board lol 

CFL Contest Since 2004 

https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/contestant/history/spottie2935/cfl

https://www.cfl.ca/2022/04/27/rule-changes-build-on-strengths-of-the-cfl-game/

OVERS Will be gold as I expected!  The CFL is encouraging scoring. We will know soon  enough if this plays out on the field.