Max Verstappen needed to do something historic to take the headlines away from the McLaren guys, and he did just at Monza on Saturday.
Verstappen grabbed pole with the fastest lap recorded in F1 history, and he’ll look for his third win of the season. Lando Norris starts in second, 34 points back of McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri, who will start in third.
Continue reading for our F1 odds and free betting picks for the Italian Grand Prix on Sept 7.
2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix prediction and picks
- Race prediction: Norris to win (+137)
- Best bet: Hamilton Top 6 (+100)
2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Lando Norris |
+137 |
 Max Verstappen |
+200 |
| Oscar Piastri |
+225 |
 Charles Leclerc |
+1600 |
 George Russell |
+3300 |
| Kimi Antonelli |
+8000 |
 Fernando Alonso |
+10000 |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+10000 |
 Gabriel Bortoleto |
+10000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda |
+25000 |
Odds as of 9-6.
F1 Italian Grand Prix 2025 post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (+137 at bet365)
Max Verstappen won this race in 2022 and 2023, but faltered to sixth last year. Even a pole doesn’t have the books convinced he can hold off McLaren, as Norris has the best odds to win outright at +137.
Norris needs to stay within striking range of Piastri, who raced to a win in last week’s Dutch Grand Prix while he was forced to retire. He’s been fast at Monzo before, snagging pole in 2024 before finishing third, with Charles Leclerc taking the checkered flag.
He has five wins on the year, with the last two coming from the No. 3 spot to take it all. A winner’s circle would be huge for him this weekend.
Best bet: Lewis Hamilton Top 6 (+100 at bet365)
In a tough first season with Ferrari, there’s another stumbling block for Lewis Hamilton, who will start 10th after a five-place grid penalty.
That comes from last week’s race, for not slowing sufficiently for yellow flags on the reconnaissance laps to the grid before Sunday's Dutch GP.
Ferrari had a nice showing, with defending champion Leclerc starting in fourth and Hamilton racing to fifth.
While he has had no podiums in 2025, Hamilton does have seven Top-6 finishes, and he should work his way through the field for another one Sunday.
F1 Italian Grand Prix 2025 pre-qualifying favorites
Oscar Piastri is in his customary spot as the pre-qualifying favorite for the Italian GP over McLaren compatriot Lando Norris, who DNF'd last week to fall further back in the F1 Championship race.
Max Verstappen seeks his third win of the season, and first since May 18, at Monza. He is a two-time winner here, as is co-fourth choice Charles Leclerc.
George Russell, one of only four unique winners in 2025, is tied with Leclerc at +1200, with a big gap back to the rest of the runners.
F1 Italian Grand Prix 2025 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | 2 | Lando Norris |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | George Russell | 6 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 7 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 8 | Fernando Alonso |
| 9 | Yuki Tsunoda | 10 | Lewis Hamilton (+5) |
| 11 | Oliver Bearman | 12 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 13 | Carlos Sainz | 14 | Alexander Albon |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon | 16 | Lance Stroll |
| 17 | Franco Colapinto | 18 | Pierre Gasly |
| 19 | Liam Lawson | 20 | Isack Hadjar |
Previous F1 Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren |
| 2020 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri |
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Charles Leclerc +400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $400 if Leclerc wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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