It was somewhat controversial, but George Russell is in a position to capture the Austrian Grand Prix for a second straight year.
The Mercedes driver grabbed the pole in qualifying Saturday, but that decision was up in the air post-qualifying.
The controversy was about whether he had slowed down enough during Max Verstappen's crash in qualifying. The decision was made that he did, and his lap would count.
That lap was fast enough to knock Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton each down a peg.
Points leader Kimi Antonelli — the pole sitter at the time of the incident — broke off after the Verstappen crash. He ended up in fourth.
Read below for my Austrian Grand Prix predictions and free betting picks for Sunday, June 28.
🏁 Austrian Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 George Russell |
Win outright | June 27 | +156 | 39.06% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
Podium Finish | June 27 | -122 | 54.95% |
📊 Austrian Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
| George Russell |
+156 | 39% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
+245 | 29% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+456 | 18% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+614 | 14% |
 Max Verstappen |
+1567 | 6% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ Austrian Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Russell to win (+156)
My pre-qualifying bet holds firm even more now, as George Russell maneuvered the Red Bull Ring with the powerful Mercedes engine.
His second-place finish in Barcelona last time out has perhaps jolted the Brit out of a mini-slump, during which he failed to even touch the podium after winning the season's opening race.
The Austrian track has the fewest corners of any circuit on the F1 schedule, giving the stronger engines more straight paths to flex.
There's a reason Antonelli also has the second-best odds to win out — the Mercedes should prevail in Austria. I'd stay with Russell to win as short as -150.
Prop pick: Hamilton Podium Finish (-122)
My pre-qualifying did peg Leclerc as the Ferrari driver to watch out for in Austria. As a previous winner at the Red Bull Ring and needing a jumpstart on his slow start to 2026, he very nearly captured the pole.
So why the change? First, I didn't think Hamilton would be able to move as well as he did in qualifying, showing he's in better lockstep with the team on adjustments course-to-course.
The second was I wasn't sure if Antonelli would shake the effects of a rough DNF in Barcelona.
As he's clearly in the mix, one of the Ferrari guys is going to get squeezed. I'll take the hotter driver of the two, even if Leclerc starts a spit ahead on Sunday.
Watch these odds though: should Leclerc become a longer shot at plus odds (say +150 or higher), I'd definitely move off Hamilton to Leclerc — that's how close they and their cars are this week.
🔢 Austrian Grand Prix starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Russell | 2 | Charles Leclerc |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 4 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 5 | Max Verstappen | 6 | Lando Norris |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | 8 | Isack Hadjar |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | 10 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 11 | Pierre Gasly | 12 | Gabriel Bortoleto |
| 13 | Oliver Bearman | 14 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon | 16 | Franco Colapinto |
| 17 | Carlos Sainz | 18 | Alexander Albon |
| 19 | Sergio Perez | 20 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso | 22 | Lance Stroll |
🧠 How I'm picking the Austrian Grand Prix
One of the key traits of the Red Bull Ring is that its 10 corners are the fewest of any track on the F1 calendar.
That equals more straightaways, and that means the fastest cars should, in theory, be at an advantage.
That’s why Russell is an early pick, but I need to see how Antonelli rebounds in qualifying after his first real dud of the year in Barcelona (DNF). He’s definitely one to watch this weekend.
Not to spoil the good Hamilton vibes, as he’s gone 2-2-1 the last three weeks, but the Red Bull Ring has not been his best track, with his most recent podium coming in 2022.
Instead, this might be the jump-off point for Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc, who has had a forgettable start to the season. This course features heavy braking zones that reward mechanical grip and braking efficiency.
The Ferrari traditionally excels in slow-speed traction, and Leclerc, who won here in 2022, is among the best and most aggressive in heavy traction zones.
Of course, it’s hard to not consider sprinkling a wager on Red Bull’s Max Verstappen at the Red Bull Ring.
He’s dominated here with five career wins, and even though his car doesn’t stack up to Mercedes or Ferrari, his working knowledge of the track and experience count for something.
📋 Austrian Grand Prix favorites
Kimi Antonelli wass the +203 favorite prior to qualifying, with Lewis Hamilton in second at +355. Close behind is George Russell in third at +426.
🏆 Previous Austrian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren |
| 2024 | George Russell | Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
❓ Austrian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Austrian Grand Prix?
George Russell is the betting favorite for the Austrian GP.
When and where is the Austrian Grand Prix?
Red Bull Ring is the site for the Austrian GP.
How can I watch the Austrian Grand Prix?
Apple TV has exclusive coverage of the Austrian GP.
Who won the Austrian Grand Prix in 2025?
Lando Norris of McLaren prevailed in this race a year ago.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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