Who will the #1 searched person on Google this year? Can Donald Trump hog the headlines long enough to satisfy Kalshi traders? Or can new entries like Savannah Guthrie surprise the markets?
Donald Trump has been the winner for the past three years on the Google searches. Traders on prediction markets are putting their money on the president being the most searched person of the year for the fourth year running.
However, there are other names on Kalshi that deserve attention. We analyze the new players and show that following the news cycle carefully is the key to success.
Key Takeaways:
- Savannah Guthrie has entered the game: the U.S. presenter is back in the news following developments over her mother's mysterious abduction.
- Donald Trump has become the value play: the POTUS has topped the chart for the past three years. His 16% probability still warrants attention.
- Bad Bunny is vying for favoritism: the Puerto Rican's Super Bowl performance, Spotify prowess, and cultural influence has soared.
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Markets like Kalshi allow you to put money on your predictions, potentially turning those endless headlines into tradable assets. But to do so successfully, you need to act at precisely the right time.
Let’s take a look at the current board for most searched person of 2026 to see where the best value opportunities lie at the moment.
This market resolves based on the official People section of Google's annual report (not to be confused with the trending chart!).
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Most Googled Person of 2026: Latest Odds
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Who Will be the #1 Searched Person on Google in 2026?
Savannah Guthrie | 'Yes' 19¢ | Chance 19%
NBC's Today show co-anchro, Savannah Guthrie, made headlines in February 2026 following the abduction of her mother. Nancy Guthrie was kidnapped from her home in Arizona and has still never been found.
Details of the two ransom notes sent to Guthrie's family are now coming to light. The first contained a ransom demand for millions of dollars in Bitcoin. The second note claimed Nancy Guthrie had died. An apparent apology over the accidental death of the 84-year-old was included in the note.
Media outlets have held off reporting details of the ransom notes until now. That has sparked a feeding frenzy on the #1 searched person on Google prediction markets.
Savannah Guthrie leapt in as a 33% 'Yes' chance this week. She has eased back to 19%, but speculation - and Google searches - will surely grow as the investigation continues.
Want to play safe? Guthrie is a 58% chance to be in the top 5 most-searched people in 2026.
Donald Trump | 'Yes' 16¢ | Chance 16%
President Trump remains a dominant force in global news cycles, so it’s not surprising that he’s leading this board too. His relatively high ‘Yes’ price reflects market sentiment that his ability to dominate headlines is still unparalleled, and will be for the remainder of the year.
The way things are going with Iran and the midterms, we’d be inclined to agree. Plus, at 16¢, you can sell your position later in the year if Trump shares go up.
But what about a safer bet on Trump at 22¢ to be in the Top 5 Most Searched People on Google? That gives you some wiggle room if someone else pips the president to top spot.
Trump is an ever-present in news cycles this year. Whether it's Iran, the FIFA World Cup, or the AMERICA250 celebrations, the POTUS is never far from the headlines.
Bad Bunny | 'Yes' 16¢ | Chance 16%
As a global music icon and star of this year’s Super Bowl halftime show, Bad Bunny’s search volume is always considerable.
And so far in 2026, it’s been kept at those sky high levels thanks to ongoing tour announcements and new music drops.
Bad Bunny’s current price suggests that traders are expecting another major project from him, and that it could be big enough to topple Trump from the top spot.
You can always play safe with the 73¢ on Bad Bunny being in the Top 5 Most-Searched of 2026. However, with just a 27¢ profit margin there, it doesn't offer as much value as the #1 spot odds.
Elon Musk | 'Yes' 12¢ | Chance 12%
Musk is a perennial favorite for search traffic, driven by the combined interest in X (formerly Twitter) and new developments from his other companies like Tesla and SpaceX. Plus, Musk's courtroom defeat to Sam Altman is keeping him in the news for other reasons.
While currently priced on the low side at 12¢, Musk’s volatility is his greatest asset. However, a single product launch or controversial tweet could be enough to send his searches through the roof.
Whether that traffic will be sustained for long enough to make a difference in these charts, though, is the real question.
Most Googled Person 2026: Best Value Picks
Taylor Swift | 'Yes' 4¢ | Chance 3%
If there’s one musician who has proven her ability to break the internet time and time again, it’s Taylor Swift.
Interest in this global icon might have cooled down a little recently, but rumours are circulating that 2026 will be the year that she marries Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs, so we can safely assume that search volume will spike as a result.
Plus, Swift's I Knew It, I Knew You has just been confirmed for the Toy Story 5 soundtrack. The film is out this month and is tipped to do well at the box office. You should also keep an eye on other Taylor-adjacent markets, such as the Top Artist on Spotify in 2026.
Sam Altman | 'Yes' 2¢ | Chance 1%
As the face of the AI revolution, Altman’s relevance has been growing as public interest in OpenAI increases. Plus, he has had a high-profile courtroom win against Elon Musk that has increased public awareness. That said, we’d need to see a major AI breakthrough or a serious controversy to see his ranking climb any further.
Timothée Chalamet | 'Yes' 3¢ | Chance 1%
Timothée Chalamet was one of the most talked about stars in the world during the 2026 awards season, and he continued to dominate headlines even after missing out on the Oscar, following some controversial takes on opera and ballet.
We’ve also seen plenty of coverage surrounding Chalamet’s relationship with Kylie Jenner. If there’s news of an engagement or a secret wedding we can certainly expect an uptick in traffic for the actor. He’s a steady contender, but it’ll take some big news stories for Chalamet to top the chart.
What can we learn from the most searched people of 2025?
Last year, the top spot of course went to none other than President Donald Trump, closely followed by Elon Musk. The only other celebrity that featured in last year's top 10 and is also on this year's board is Taylor Swift.
Google also reveals its top trending figures every year, and these two give us a glimpse into the topics and people users are most interested in.
Trending people are those who saw the most significant surge in interest relative to 2024. In 2025, the list included d4vd, Kendrick Lamar, Jimmy Kimmel, Tyler Robinson and Pope Leo XIV.
Top 10 Trending People (2025 Global Year in Search)
This list reflects the spikes, so it’s the people who saw the most significant surge in interest compared to 2024.
| Rank | Person | Category | Reason for Spike |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | d4vd | Musician | Viral TikTok hits and a high-profile news investigation. |
| 2 | Kendrick Lamar | Musician | Global "Pop Out" show and Super Bowl halftime news. |
| 3 | Jimmy Kimmel | TV Host | Fourth Academy Awards hosting and late-night virality. |
| 4 | Tyler Robinson | Public Figure | Accused in a major high-profile assassination event. |
| 5 | Pope Leo XIV | Religious Leader | Election of the first American-born Pope in history. |
| 6 | Vaibhav Suryavanshi | Athlete | Youngest-ever centurion in men's T20 cricket (IPL). |
| 7 | Shedeur Sanders | Athlete | NFL Draft experience and joining the Cleveland Browns. |
| 8 | Bianca Censori | Architect | Continued viral fashion and lifestyle scrutiny. |
| 9 | Zohran Mamdani | Politician | Historic upset victory as New York City Mayor. |
| 10 | Greta Thunberg | Activist | Renewed global protests and "The Greta Effect." |
More 2026 Google Search Prediction Markets
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How to Use Prediction Markets
Prediction markets work very differently to sportsbooks. With a prediction market, you’re trading the probability of a specific outcome, and you’re trading against other people rather than the house. Here’s a brief introduction to prediction markets and how they work for markets like this one.
1. Choosing a Position and Understanding the Contract
On platforms like Kalshi, every market is binary, meaning it has a 'Yes' side and a 'No' side. Every contract is worth exactly $1.00 if the outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.
The price of a contract (e.g. 23¢) represents the market's belief in the likelihood of that event. A price of 23¢ means the market currently assigns a 23% chance to that person being the most searched.
2. The Two Ways to Profit
There are two primary strategies for making money in these markets. Firstly, you don't have to wait for the final results in December.
If you buy a ‘Yes’ for Elon Musk at 8¢ and a week later he makes a major acquisition, the price might jump to 20¢. You then have the option to sell your shares to another trader and take the profit immediately without waiting for the result.
If you are confident in your research and think you’ve backed the winner, you can hold until the very end.
For example, if you buy a ‘Yes’ for Donald Trump at 23¢ and he is confirmed as the most searched person, your shares convert to $1.00 each. That means a profit of 77¢ per share for you.
3. Analyzing the Order Book
Before placing a trade, look at the bid (what buyers are willing to pay) and the ask (what sellers are willing to accept).
Market orders execute instantly at the best available current price. You can use this if you need to enter a position quickly before news spreads.
There are also limit orders. With these, you set a specific price you are willing to pay (e.g., "I will only buy Taylor Swift 'Yes' if the price drops to 5¢"). This allows for more precision but leaves you open to the possibility of missing out entirely if the price moves in the other direction.
4. Managing Risk with 'No' Contracts
One of the most powerful tools in #1 searched person on Google prediction markets is the ability to trade the 'No' side.
If you are certain a specific celebrity will not be the most searched, you can buy 'No' shares instead. While 'No' shares for a person like Sam Altman might be expensive (99¢), they represent a very high-probability trade.
As an advanced trader, you can buy 'Yes' on two or three likely candidates while buying 'No' on several long shots. That allows you to balance your portfolio and protect yourself against unexpected market swings.
5. Research and Information Lag
The key to success on prediction markets is identifying information before it is priced in. In the most searched person of 2026 market, this involves monitoring data, including:
- Upcoming releases from musicians and movie stars
- Google Trends data
- External catalysts, such as political debates, awards, or controversies
Most Googled Person Prediction Market FAQs
Most markets have specific dead heat rules or use specific data providers (like Google Trends) to determine a winner down to the decimal point.
Because only one person can be the most searched, it is statistically much more likely that any given individual will not win, which is why there are much higher prices for 'No' contracts.
Yes. Prediction markets allow you to sell your 'Yes' or 'No' shares at the current market price before the final result is determined. Sometimes it’s possible to make a profit by doing so before the winner is revealed.
This market does not resolve based on daily Google Trends charts or third-party news reports. It officially resolves using the “People” section of the Google Year in Search 2026 Global list. This report is typically released by Google in early to mid-December.
If a person who isn't currently listed on the board (e.g., a new breakout star or a sudden news figure) takes the #1 spot, the market typically resolves to "Other." If you believe the current frontrunners will all be eclipsed by an unknown event, buying "Other" (if available) or the ‘No’ side of the favorites is the strategic play.
