March sees another huge precursor in the race towards this year’s Academy Awards: the 32nd annual Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG Awards).
Already, Kalshi prediction markets are buzzing as traders attempt to predict this year’s big winners, and find value in mispriced picks.
Key Takeaways:
- Sinners has displaced One Battle After Another as the favorite for Outstanding Cast, signaling a shift in sentiment toward the record-nominated film.
- Benicio del Toro offers significant value as part of the One Battle After Another ensemble if traders believe in a late-game sweep.
- Jessie Buckley is a near-lock to win Best Leading Actress, in one of the most stable markets on the board.
While the Oscars focus on cinematic prestige, the Actor Awards are famously decided by the industry's largest voting body: the actors themselves.
The Actor Awards are particularly important as they share a significant number of voters with the Academy Awards. That’s why a win at these awards often means that a golden statue is on its way. As a result, any surprises here mean swift movement on the Oscars prediction markets.
Let’s take a look at some of the latest prices for Actor Awards contracts on Kalshi, from near locks to the most volatile races on the red carpet.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will attend the Actor Awards?
The Actor Awards attendance market is a real study in contrasting probabilities. Selena Gomez is a virtual lock at 95¢, buoyed by her Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble nomination for Only Murders in the Building. But the action that’s really worth following is in the mid-range of this market. Gracie Abrams is currently a coin-flip, while NFL star Josh Allen is a long-shot, but his price is rising.
Best Leading Actor (Film)
It’s a heavyweight showdown in the Best Leading Actor market, and all eyes will be on favourite Timothée Chalamet in what is the biggest precursor awards event before the Oscars.
Traders are now betting that Chalamet’s transformation into a ping-pong prodigy constitutes the exact degree of difficulty typically rewarded by Actor Awards voters.
Michael B. Jordan remains a dangerous underdog in this market, though, at 23¢. Sinners has massive support across the board, so Jordan’s price could come with a significant upside in the event of a late upset.
Best Leading Actress (Film)
Jessie Buckley is now trading as a massive 89¢ favorite in this market, following her victory at the Golden Globes. She’s undoubtedly the one to beat this season, but Rose Byrne could cause an upset, and a ‘Yes’ for her is just 14¢ at the moment.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
In the most prestigious category of the night (often considered the equivalent of Best Picture), Sinners has seized control of the market, surging to a commanding 66¢.
Traders are clearly betting that the film’s record-breaking nomination count will translate into ensemble gold, positioning it as the team to beat. This shift has pushed the former favorite, One Battle After Another, into value territory at 32¢, offering a high-payout alternative.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Teyana Taylor holds a commanding lead in the supporting actress market. Her performance has been the breakout story of the year, and her current price reflects a strong belief that voters will cement her status as the Oscar frontrunner.
Veteran Amy Madigan is the underdog at 18¢. For traders looking for prestige value, Madigan represents a good opportunity. She’s definitely capable of pulling off an upset, and if she does a ‘Yes’ for her is one of the top value plays available right now.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
The Supporting Actor race has become a fascinating fight, with far closer pricing than in some of the other Actor Awards markets. Currently in favor is Jacob Elordi for his role in Frankenstein. He’s at 39¢, suggesting his chances are good but nowhere near lock territory.
Hot on his heels is Benicio del Toro at 27¢. Representing the heavily favored One Battle After Another, del Toro is now seen by many as a high-upside discount. If you’re expecting a sweep for the movie itself, a ‘Yes’ for del Toro is a great option. We’re expecting his price to rise as we head towards the ceremony.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS' and get a $10 trading bonus after you trade $10 on any other event contracts — including this game!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Why the BAFTAs are the ultimate Actor Awards price catalyst
We’re expecting plenty of movement in prices for almost all Actor Awards markets as we head towards the main event.
Prices for top picks on these markets can shift as a result of everything from rumor and sudden changes in narrative to off the cuff remarks from influential voters. But if there’s one event that has the power to send prices through the roof, or cause them to come crashing down, it’s the other big Oscar precursor event: the BAFTAs.
For more on this, take a look at our guide on how BAFTA results reshape the final Oscar odds (even though the Oscar winners are already decided by the time the BAFTAs are announced!).
How to trade the Actor Awards on Kalshi
Trading the Actor Awards (SAG Awards) on Kalshi is fundamentally different from traditional sportsbook betting because it operates as a peer-to-peer exchange.
Instead of a house setting odds, the prices are determined by the collective wisdom of the market if a contract for Rhea Seehorn is trading at 85¢, it means the market believes she has an 85% probability of winning.
Because the Screen Actors Guild shares a significant portion of its membership with the Academy, these markets are some of the most accurate precursors for the Oscars. Any changes in narrative leading up to the awards, as well as surprise wins, can mean huge movement in Oscars prediction markets.
Traders can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts and, crucially, exit their positions early; if you buy an underdog before a major critics' win and the price jumps, you can sell your shares for a profit instantly without waiting for the ceremony on March 1.
Actor Awards FAQs
The 32nd Annual Actor Awards will stream live globally on Netflix on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT. The ceremony will be held at the Shrine Auditorium & Expo Hall in Los Angeles, hosted by Kristen Bell.
In the rare event of a tie at the ceremony, Kalshi markets are typically structured with a specific ‘Tie’ contract. If two nominees are announced as winners, the tie market resolves to yes (settling at $1.00), while the individual nominee markets resolve to no. Always check the important information section of your specific contract to confirm the tie-breaker rules.
Kalshi typically settles awards markets within 30 minutes to one hour after the official outcome is verified. Once the market resolves, the funds are instantly credited to your cash balance and are available for withdrawal or further trading.
Yes. Kalshi charges a small transaction fee based on the implied probability of the contract. Fees are generally highest for coin flip markets (around 50¢) and lowest for locks (90¢+) or long shots (under 10¢). There are no fees for settling a contract or for withdrawing funds via ACH bank transfer.
Most Actor Awards markets remain open for trading right up until the category is officially announced on stage. This allows for live trading, where you can react to earlier wins or red-carpet interviews. But be aware that prices can swing violently in seconds as the envelope is opened.
