The 32nd annual Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards) have now concluded, and like the BAFTAs it was another night of surprise wins and big upsets.
All eyes were on the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles on March 1, because the Actor Awards is now seen as the most important precursor event ahead of the Oscars. And that means it’s ideal for those looking to bet on the Oscars with prediction markets like Kalshi.
Key Takeaways:
- Sinners continued to pick up prizes, taking home the awards for Ensemble and Best Leading Actor (Michael B. Jordan).
- One Battle After Another lost out on the top prize, but secured a historic win in the Supporting Actress category.
- Traders who backed the underdogs in the Supporting Actor and Actress races saw the highest return on investment of the night.
Prediction markets reacted to Actor Award wins and losses almost instantly, with considerable jumps and drops in ‘Yes’ prices for many a household name. Here’s how the markets resolved on the night and what the upsets could mean for the Oscars prediction markets
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Best Leading Actor (Film)
Winner: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Closing ‘Yes’ Price: 16¢
In the biggest upset of the night, Michael B. Jordan overcame favorite Timothée Chalamet to take the Best Actor prize. Chalamet went into the night with a ‘Yes’ price of 84¢, but the acting guild had another name in mind. Traders who picked up Jordan contracts as a value play made considerable returns.
Best Leading Actress (Film)
Winner: Jessie Buckley (One Battle After Another)
Closing ‘Yes’ Price: 89¢
This market remained as stable as commentators had predicted. Buckley was widely expected to take the prize for Best Actress, following consecutive wins across all the other major televised ceremonies of the season and she did so. Trading at 89¢, Jessie Buckley proved to be the lock traders expected.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Winner: Sinners
Closing ‘Yes’ Price: 66¢
The Actor Awards’ answer to Best Picture confirmed the shift in sentiment seen earlier in the month. Sinners displaced One Battle After Another (32¢) to take one of the most important awards of the evening. And that just might prove that the film’s record-breaking number of nominations signals some serious Oscar wins on the way for Sinners.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Closing ‘Yes’ Price: 30¢
In another major upset, veteran Amy Madigan took home the trophy for her role in Weapons. Teyana Taylor entered the evening as the 60¢ favorite, but ultimately the market had undervalued Madigan’s industry prestige. For traders who backed Madigan at 30¢, this momentum shift really paid off.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Closing ‘Yes’ Price:
There was significant buzz around Jacob Elordi (39¢) and Benicio del Toro (27¢) ahead of this award, but it was del Toro's co-star Sean Penn who secured the win for One Battle After Another. The upset caused an immediate swing in the markets, sending his Oscar ‘Yes’ price soaring.
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What This Means for Oscars Prediction Markets
The Actor Awards share a massive portion of their voting bloc with the Academy, which is why they’ve always been seen as the most important precursor event on the calendar for those looking to predict Oscar winners and losers.
Historically, a sweep at the Actor Awards has the potential to dramatically impact the final Oscar odds. But to really make the most of value plays prior to the Oscars, traders need to be ahead of the markets.
The Best Actor market is now particuarly volatile. This had been looking like a one man race for some time, but with Chalamet losing out at both the BAFTA and Actor Awards, his competitors have now closed the gap.
There were upsets in both the Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor markets, too, sending ‘Yes’ prices for the likes of Sean Penn and Amy Madigan through the roof.
It’s a different story in the Best Actress market, however. Jessie Buckley is has almost completed a clean sweep of this award season; she just needs that golden statue to make history.
If you missed out on the window of opportunity before the Actor Award winners were announced, there may still be a chance to pick up Oscar prediction market value picks if you can identify any mispriced nominees on the board.
How to trade the Actor Awards on Kalshi
Trading the Actor Awards (SAG Awards) on Kalshi is fundamentally different from traditional sportsbook betting because it operates as a peer-to-peer exchange.
Instead of a house setting odds, the prices are determined by the collective wisdom of the market if a contract for Rhea Seehorn is trading at 85¢, it means the market believes she has an 85% probability of winning.
Because the Screen Actors Guild shares a significant portion of its membership with the Academy, these markets are some of the most accurate precursors for the Oscars. Any changes in narrative leading up to the awards, as well as surprise wins, can mean huge movement in Oscars prediction markets.
Traders can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts and, crucially, exit their positions early; if you buy an underdog before a major critics' win and the price jumps, you can sell your shares for a profit instantly without waiting for the ceremony to take place.
Actor Awards FAQs
The 32nd Annual Actor Awards will stream live globally on Netflix on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT. The ceremony will be held at the Shrine Auditorium & Expo Hall in Los Angeles, hosted by Kristen Bell.
In the rare event of a tie at the ceremony, Kalshi markets are typically structured with a specific ‘Tie’ contract. If two nominees are announced as winners, the tie market resolves to yes (settling at $1.00), while the individual nominee markets resolve to no. Always check the important information section of your specific contract to confirm the tie-breaker rules.
Kalshi typically settles awards markets within 30 minutes to one hour after the official outcome is verified. Once the market resolves, the funds are instantly credited to your cash balance and are available for withdrawal or further trading.
Yes. Kalshi charges a small transaction fee based on the implied probability of the contract. Fees are generally highest for coin flip markets (around 50¢) and lowest for locks (90¢+) or long shots (under 10¢). There are no fees for settling a contract or for withdrawing funds via ACH bank transfer.
Most Actor Awards markets remain open for trading right up until the category is officially announced on stage. This allows for live trading, where you can react to earlier wins or red-carpet interviews. But be aware that prices can swing violently in seconds as the envelope is opened.
