The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed in a matter of days, and if prediction markets like Kalshi are any indication, Chalamet may well have already turned the Best Actor race into a one-man show.
The price of a ‘Yes’ for Timothée Chalamet has now reached unprecedented heights as we head towards what could well be his first Oscar win. But the competition is fierce, and there are still some hugely important precursors to take into consideration.
Key Takeaways:
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is the current frontrunner in the Best Actor race
- Once a favorite, Leonardo DiCaprio is now a good strategic 'No'
- The next big precursor event for this market is the nominations announcement
Best Actor Market Movement: What’s happened since the Golden Globes?
In early December, the Best Actor market was split between Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) but over the last two weeks we’ve seen a decided shift towards Chalamet.
Following his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Chalamet’s implied probability has soared to 75%. On Kalshi, this translates to a 73¢ ‘Yes’ price, making him by far the most expensive lead acting contract currently on the board.
Conversely, Leonardo DiCaprio has seen his price drop from a 75¢ high down to 17¢. While One Battle After Another remains a Best Picture favorite, traders are betting on the theory that the Academy is likely to split the awards, rewarding the film itself rather than Leo's individual performance.
Total trading volume for the Best Actor category on Kalshi has almost surpassed $2.8 million, so our appetite for Oscar speculation remains strong.
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Best Actor: Our Top Five Contenders
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | Chance 73%
Chalamet now looks like an almost certain winner in this market. His portrayal of a 1950s ping-pong legend has captured the industry narrative, and his success in early precursors like the Golden Globes has kept his price rising.
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | Chance 17%
Once a favorite in this race, DiCaprio is now a good strategic 'No'. At 17¢, he’s excellent value for anyone wanting to be on an upset, and given the likelihood that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture he remains a realistic option.
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | Chance 4%
Moura’s price stands at just 4¢, despite the fact that he won a Golden Globe in the Drama category. He’s expected to feature on the list of nominees, but traders don’t see him as a viable winner at this point.
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Chance 3%
Jordan is a real fan-favorite, but the market is decidedly skeptical. His price has now stabilized at 3¢, but commentators feel it’s a nomination he’s fighting for rather than a win.
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | Chance 3%
Hawke’s performance in Blue Moon has got the critics talking, with many now expecting him to feature on the list of nominees on January 22nd. If that happens, his price could double overnight.
Will it be a clean sweep for Chalamet this season?
Timothée Chalamet is now in the middle of a high-stakes awards season. Given recent movement in the markets, he’s a favorite to achieve what’s become known as the Actors’ Clean Sweep, for his role in Marty Supreme.
Chalamet's Clean Sweep Tracker (2025–2026)
To match the single-season sweeps achieved by the likes of Joaquin Phoenix and Daniel Day-Lewis, Timothée Chalamet needs to win all five of these major televised trophies:
| Award | Status | Film |
|---|---|---|
| Critics Choice | Won | Marty Supreme |
| Golden Globe | Won | Marty Supreme |
| Actors Award (SAG Award) | Pending | Marty Supreme |
| BAFTA | Pending | Marty Supreme |
| Academy Award | Pending | Marty Supreme |
Chalamet has already had two major victories this season. He won Best Actor at both the Critics Choice Awards (January 4) and the Golden Globes (January 11). Marty Supreme too is breaking records; it's just become A24's highest grossing film of all time, having surpassed $100 million globally.
We haven’t seen a clean sweep in the Best Actor category since 2020, when it was won by Joaquin Phoenix for his role in Joker. That was also the year in which all four actors and actresses won their awards for a single performance in all five of the major televised awards ceremonies.
Currently, the clean sweep record is held by Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s the only person to ever sweep all five ceremonies for two different films: There Will Be Blood (2007) and Lincoln (2012).
To complete the clean sweep and join the prestigious ranks of some of the world's most celebrated actors, Chalamet now needs to secure a win at the upcoming Actor Awards (previously SAG Awards) and the BAFTAs, before the ultimate competition: the 98th Academy Awards which takes place this March.
His odds are good, but Chalamet still faces stiff competition from industry veterans like Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent). Will the momentum behind him translate to a clean sweep in 2026?
How Oscars Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you’re trading event contracts with others.
Kalshi contracts are all priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The most important thing to remember is that the price equals the probability. So, if a contract for Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor is trading at 75¢, the market believes there is a 75% chance he will win.
If your prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1.00, netting you a profit (in this case, 25¢ per share). If you’re wrong, it goes to $0.00. Because these markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, they are often considered more accurate than polls or expert pundits.
Traders have a financial incentive to be right, which is why prices shift so quickly in response to breaking news, rumors or any wins (or lack of) at precursor events.
The next big precursor event for this market is the nominations announcement on January 22nd. Watch this space for movement on the markets as we near the date of the big reveal.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our complete guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Is a 75% probability on Kalshi considered a ‘lock’ for the Oscar?
No, a 75% probability (or 75¢ price) means the market views the win as highly likely but not certain. In prediction markets, a ‘lock’ typically refers to prices above 90¢.
Why did Leonardo DiCaprio's price drop if his movie is still the Best Picture favorite?
The market tends to split awards. So if traders believe a film will take the Best Picture win, that can lower the individual winning probability of its biggest stars.
What happens to my Best Actor contract if my candidate isn't nominated on Jan 22?
The market is for the winner of the Oscar, so if a candidate isn’t nominated the contract will effectively drop to 0¢. Traders sometimes sell their positions right before nomination morning to avoid this risk.
How does Kalshi differ from traditional sports betting on the Oscars?
Kalshi is a peer-to-peer exchange where you trade against other people, whereas a sportsbook sets fixed odds that you bet against. On Kalshi, you can sell your position at any time to lock in profits before the ceremony, similar to trading a stock.
Which precursor award has the biggest impact on the Kalshi price?
The Actor Awards are the most significant buy or sell signal because they share the largest percentage of voters with the Academy. A surprise win there usually causes an immediate and massive swing in the Oscar prediction market prices.
