The winners of the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed in a matter of weeks, and the Best Actor race is now heating up following historic upsets at the BAFTA and Actor Awards.
This market had been starting to look like a one-man race, with the price of a ‘yes’ for Timothée Chalamet reaching unprecedented heights by mid-February. But a shock win for non-nominee Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs left traders scrambling to adjust their positions, and caused an instant drop in Chalamet’s price.
On 1 March, Chalamet’s price plunged even further when Michael B. Jordan triumphed at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners.
The impact of this snub was even greater than that of the BAFTAs, as the ceremony is seen as one of the most accurate ways of gauging voting intention ahead of the Academy Awards. Now, Chalamet’s competitors are closing the gap on the Oscars prediction markets.
Key Takeaways:
- Timothée Chalamet’s one-man race status has been shattered by a BAFTA loss to non-Oscar nominee Robert Aramayo (I Swear) and a direct loss to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards.
- The Actor Awards share a massive voting bloc with the Academy, so Michael B. Jordan’s victory has transformed the race into a dead heat.
- Best Actor trading volume has now topped $8 million, with traders now looking for value in dark horses rather than the presumed safe bet of Chalamet.
Total trading volume for the Best Actor category on Kalshi has now exceeeded $8 million, with traders reacting to both the Aramayo BAFTA earthquake and a brand new upset. Chalamet’s once dominant lead is certainly showing cracks, but is there value to be found amongst his competitors?
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Who will be named Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | Chance 54% | ▼ 14
Chalamet’s price has dropped significantly. He no longer looks like the almost certain winner he once did. His portrayal of a 1950s ping-pong legend captured the industry narrative early on, with success in early precursors like the Golden Globes putting him ahead of the competition. But two recent upsets have changed everything, sending his ‘Yes’ price plummeting.
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Chance 37% | ▲ 26
Sinners broke records on January 22 when it was revealed that the film had been nominated in 16 categories. That news led to a jump in Jordan's 'Yes' price, from 3¢ to 8¢. His price rose again following the nominations announcement, but it wasn’t until he was named Best Actor at the Actor Awards that Michael B. Jordan started to look like a likely contender on Kalshi’s Oscars prediction markets. He’s now closing the gap on frontrunner Chalamet.
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | Chance 7% | ▼ 7
Once a favorite in this race, DiCaprio is now a good strategic 'No'. At 11¢, he’s excellent value for anyone wanting to be on an upset, and given the likelihood that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture he remains a realistic option.
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | Chance 4% | ▲ 3
Moura’s price stands at just 4¢, despite the fact that he won a Golden Globe in the Drama category. Despite recent upsets in this category, traders don’t see Wagner Moura as a viable winner at this point.
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | Chance 3% No change
Hawke’s performance in Blue Moon got the critics talking, and we now know that he's officially nominated for Best Actor. But his price remains low, with traders doubtful of his ability to win over Chalamet or Jordan.
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Michael B. Jordan’s Actor Awards Win Shakes Up Best Actor Odds on Kalshi
The 2026 Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) took place on March 1, 2026, and the story of the night was Michael B. Jordan pulling off a major upset in the Best Actor category.
Jordan’s win, alongside the film’s Outstanding Ensemble Cast trophy, has significantly disrupted the Best Actor race, which, up until this point, had been dominated by Timothée Chalamet for his role in Marty Supreme.
The impact on Kalshi’s Oscars prediction markets was immediate and volatile. Chalamet, who entered the weekend as the frontrunner with an implied probability of approximately 70%, saw his odds drop sharply to around 46% following the ceremony.
As a direct result of the win, Michael B. Jordan’s ‘Yes’ contracts surged from a pre-Actor Awards price of 12¢ to a far more competitive 36¢. Traders were quick to react to the win because of the strength of the correlation between Actor Award and Oscar winners.
Sinners is now carrying immense industry momentum heading into the Academy Awards in just two weeks’ time. And its most recent upset has shifted this prediction market from a runaway scenario to one of closest and most volatile categories.
Best Actor Market Movement: The BAFTA Impact
In early February, the Best Actor market appeared to be a settled affair. Following his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Timothée Chalamet’s implied probability soared to 78%, translating to a 78¢ ‘Yes’ price on Kalshi. He was the most expensive lead acting contract on the board… until the BAFTAs changed everything.
The victory of Robert Aramayo in London caused a decided shift away from the inevitability of a Chalamet sweep. Because Aramayo won the BAFTA despite not being nominated for an Oscar, he effectively acted as a spoiler for the frontrunner's momentum.
On Kalshi, Chalamet’s price has softened to 72¢, as traders react to the news that the British voting bloc (a major Oscar crossover group) preferred a non-nominee over the American favorite.
Conversely, Leonardo DiCaprio has continued to see a disconnect between his film’s success and his individual odds.
While One Battle After Another remains the Best Picture heavyweight, Leo’s price has stagnated at 10¢. Traders are increasingly betting on the split theory: that the Academy will reward Paul Thomas Anderson’s direction and the film itself, while looking elsewhere for the acting honors.
What changed after the Golden Globes?
The BAFTAs and Actor Awards aren’t the only precursor events that have a significant impact on Oscars markets, of course.
In early December, the Best Actor market was split between Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) but it was the Golden Globes that caused a decided shift towards Chalamet.
Following his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Chalamet’s implied probability soared to 75%. On Kalshi, this translates to a 75¢ ‘Yes’ price, making him by far the most expensive lead acting contract currently on the board.
Conversely, Leonardo DiCaprio saw his price drop from a 30¢ high down to 17¢. While One Battle After Another remains a Best Picture favorite, traders appear to be betting on the theory that the Academy is likely to split the awards, rewarding the film itself rather than Leo's individual performance.
Chalamet’s clean sweep narrative comes to an end
Timothée Chalamet is currently in the middle of a high-stakes awards season. Prior to the BAFTAs, he had been the heavy favorite to achieve what’s become known as the Actors’ Clean Sweep, for his role in Marty Supreme.
Chalamet has had two major victories this season, he won Best Actor at both the Critics Choice Awards (January 4) and the Golden Globes (January 11). But his path to the clean sweep was blocked by Robert Aramayo, who took the Best Actor prize at the BAFTAs on February 22.
We haven’t seen a clean sweep in the Best Actor category since 2020, when it was won by Joaquin Phoenix for his role in Joker. Currently, the clean sweep record is held by Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s the only person to ever sweep all five for two different films: There Will Be Blood (2007) and Lincoln (2012).
Chalamet's Clean Sweep Tracker (2025–2026)
To match the single-season sweeps achieved by the likes of Joaquin Phoenix and Daniel Day-Lewis, Timothée Chalamet needed to win the following five major televised trophies.
| Award | Status | Role / Film |
|---|---|---|
| Critics Choice | WON | Marty Supreme |
| Golden Globe | WON | Marty Supreme |
| BAFTA | LOST | Won by Robert Aramayo (I Swear) |
| Actor Award (SAG) | LOST | Won by Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) |
| Academy Award | Pending | Pending |
Best Supporting Actor
The nominations for Best Supporting Actor are now in, and the market is pricing Stellan Skarsgård as the one to beat. However, ‘Yes’ contracts for some of his contenders may well offer better value if you believe a late-season surge is on its way, either from the record-breaking Sinners or the PTA action-epic One Battle After Another.
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Chance 73% ▲ 17
Penn is this year’s high-octane villain, the type of character that has been known to catch the Academy's eye. Reviewers have called him "absolutely terrifying" in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Previously priced at 17¢, he had been a great value pick for those anticipating an upset. But that BAFTA win and a subsequent Actor Award victory meant a huge jump in his price. A 'Yes' for Penn is now priced at 71¢.
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) | Chance 19% ▼ 9
This year’s definitive frontrunner had been Stellan Skarsgård, until the BAFTAs. Fresh off a Golden Globe win for his portrayal of a troubled father, Skarsgård received his first ever Oscar nomination. The market had priced him a safe bet, at 67¢, but Penn's BAFTA and Actor Awards wins have sent his price plummeting.
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) | Chance 8% | ▲ 2
We might be about to see Sinners sweep this year’s Academy Awards, given the fact that it got a record-breaking 16 nominations. And if that does happen, Lindo could well be the one to watch in this market. He has real potential, and he’s currently priced at just 7¢.
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) | Chance 2% ▼ 6
Del Toro’s performance may be worthy of an award, but he faces the vote-splitting issue with co-star Sean Penn. Critics universally praised Del Toro’s acting, but momentum is firmly behind Penn in this market.
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | Chance 3% ▼ 2
Elordi has already won the Critics' Choice Award for his role as the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, however traders don’t believe he’s got what it takes to scoop the Best Supporting Actor trophy this year. Priced at just 1¢, he’s a longshot.
How Oscars Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you’re trading event contracts with others.
Kalshi contracts are all priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The most important thing to remember is that the price equals the probability. So, if a contract for Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor is trading at 75¢, the market believes there is a 75% chance he will win.
If your prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1.00, netting you a profit (in this case, 25¢ per share). If you’re wrong, it goes to $0.00. Because these markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, they are often considered more accurate than polls or expert pundits.
Traders have a financial incentive to be right, which is why prices shift so quickly in response to breaking news, rumors or any wins (or lack of) at precursor events.
The next big precursor event for this market is the Actor Awards. Watch this space for movement on the markets as we near the date of the big reveal.
To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our complete guide to Oscars prediction markets.
Best Actor Prediction Market FAQs
No, a 75% probability (or 75¢ price) means the market views the win as highly likely but not certain. In prediction markets, a ‘lock’ typically refers to prices above 90¢.
The market tends to split awards. So if traders believe a film will take the Best Picture win, that can lower the individual winning probability of its biggest stars.
The market is for the winner of the Oscar, so if a candidate isn’t nominated the contract will effectively drop to 0¢. Traders sometimes sell their positions right before nomination morning to avoid this risk.
Kalshi is a peer-to-peer exchange where you trade against other people, whereas a sportsbook sets fixed odds that you bet against. On Kalshi, you can sell your position at any time to lock in profits before the ceremony, similar to trading a stock.
The Actor Awards are the most significant buy or sell signal because they share the largest percentage of voters with the Academy. A surprise win there usually causes an immediate and massive swing in the Oscar prediction market prices.
