The 98th Academy Awards may still be weeks away, but the landscape of the race has suddenly shifted in light of one of the event’s biggest precursors: the BAFTAs.
February 22 saw a big upset in the Best Actor race, with Robert Aramayo beating Hollywood royalty to take one of the biggest prizes of the night. And that left traders on prediction markets like Kalshi scrambling to adjust their positions.
What was once seen as a predictable march to the podium for Chalamet now seems a little less certain. Aramayo isn’t amongst the Oscar nominees, but his win has put a stop to talk of a clean sweep for the Marty Supreme star. And it’s left Oscar traders questioning everything they thought they knew about momentum.
Key Takeaways:
- With significant voting overlap between them, the BAFTA results are a reliable indicator of momentum shifts before the Oscars.
- By winning Best Actor over Oscar favorite Timothée Chalamet, non-nominee Robert Aramayo has shattered the inevitability narrative.
- Unlike the Best Actor race, the BAFTAs brought clarity to other categories. Paul Thomas Anderson and Jessie Buckley’s wins moved their Oscar contracts toward near-certainty.
Prediction markets are now heating up as traders weigh Paul Thomas Anderson’s 13-nomination powerhouse One Battle After Another against Ryan Coogler’s horror Sinners, which got a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations. But everything could change in the final weeks.
As PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt explains, “what’s “Oscar-ready” may look very different from what appeals to BAFTA voters,” so while a BAFTA win might look like a reliable indicator that Oscar is success on its way, that isn’t always the case.
We discussed the similarities, and the differences, between Oscar and BAFTA voters, to learn more about how a BAFTA win or loss changes the narrative (and the pricing) of Oscar contracts ahead of the ceremony itself.
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Aramayo win puts a spanner in the works
The biggest story of the BAFTAs was undoubtedly Robert Aramayo. In a turn of events that sent shockwaves through the industry, Aramayo pulled off a feat never before seen in the history of the BAFTAs: winning both the EE Rising Star Award and Best Leading Actor in the same night.
Aramayo’s win for his portrayal of Tourette’s campaigner John Davidson in I Swear represents the ultimate BAFTA upset. Because Aramayo was famously snubbed by the Academy and is not nominated for the Best Actor Oscar, his London victory has created a real vacuum in the awards narrative.
Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price cools
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) had been the undisputed frontrunner on Kalshi’s Best Actor prediction market, with prices previously hovering near 77¢. However, following his loss in London to an actor who isn't even in the Oscar race, Chalamet’s price has dipped.
Traders are reacting to the fact that the sweep story is officially dead. Given the fact that the BAFTA voting bloc, which shares a massive crossover with the Academy, preferred an non-nominee over the Oscar frontrunner, Chalamet’s support may not be quite as strong as markets had previously assumed.
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BAFTA 2026: Upsets abound at the Oscars precursor
| Category | Winner | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Best Film | One Battle After Another | Favorite Won (Bad for ‘No’ 39¢ play) |
| Leading Actor | Robert Aramayo | Major Upset (Huge win for 5¢ ‘Yes’ buyers) |
| Leading Actress | Jessie Buckley | Expected Win (Solidified Buckley’s Oscar frontrunner status) |
| Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | Favorite Won (Skarsgård ‘No’ play at 21¢ paid out) |
| Supporting Actress | Wunmi Mosaku | Upset (Taylor and Lilleaas both missed out) |
| Original Screenplay | Sinners (Ryan Coogler) | Upset (The 54¢ favorite The Secret Agent lost) |
Expert Take: Lynn Carratt on the Aramayo effect
We spoke with PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt to discuss how a win for a non-Oscar nominee will impact strategies on the Oscars prediction markets.
“Robert Aramayo is clearly an actor to watch and one whose career is only just getting started,” Carratt said.
“Overnight, he’s gone from being a respected British actor to someone studios, casting directors and international audiences are now paying serious attention to.”
“Beating Hollywood heavyweights Leonardo Di Caprio and Timothee Chalamet is a huge accomplishment.”
Carratt explained that because Aramayo isn't an option for the Oscar, his win doesn't help a specific rival.
“BAFTA’s recognition would position Aramayo perfectly for the Oscars, but he hasn't been nominated. He was noticeably snubbed in the acting categories. However, the buzz alone from the two BAFTA wins has raised his profile internationally overnight.”
As we’ve seen from market reaction since the news broke, a BAFTA upset does hurt the perceived invincibility of any Academy Award frontrunners, but Carratt told us that “a miss here isn’t necessarily a death knell for Oscar hopes. It’s more a nudge to adjust strategy.”
“Losses at BAFTA can sting, but they aren’t fatal. The Academy has a slightly different palette, often favouring films with strong US industry support. A film might get overlooked in London for cultural or stylistic reasons but still resonate across the pond.”
Jessie Buckley’s success at the BAFTAs has, as market prices suggest, made her a lock for Best Actress. And while Chalamet’s price may have dipped since the upset on February 22, he’s still by far the most likely winner for Best Actor.
“I think at the Oscar we’ll see a clean sweep for Jessie Buckley in the Leading Actress category,” said Carratt.
“Sinners has been nominated for more awards than One Battle After Another, so we could see a switch in the awards they take home with potentially Ryan Coogler winning Best Director.”
”My money is on Timothee Chalamet for the best actor statue.”
How the Oscars markets are moving post BAFTAs
With the BAFTAs now in the rearview mirror, the focus has shifted to what could happen at the Dolby Theatre on March 15.
Here’s how the Kalshi Oscars prediction markets are responding to the London fallout:
Oscar for Best Picture
One Battle After Another saw its ‘Yes’ price climb after the BAFTA win, as traders believe the British support will carry over to the international voting bloc.
Oscar for Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson’s price has surged toward 90¢ following his BAFTA win. Unlike the acting categories, there was no disconnect here; PTA is now the lock of the season.
Oscar for Best Actress
Jessie Buckley’s win has solidified her position as favorite for Best Actress. She’s now a lock at 91¢, with runner-up Rose Byrne trailing far behind at just 6¢.
Oscar for Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price dropped from 77¢ to 68¢ in response to his loss at the BAFTAs. He remains the favorite by a long way, but ‘No’ contracts for Chalamet are now rising as traders hedge against a potential Academy upset.
What’s next in the race to predict the Oscar winners of 2026?
As another precursor event is ticked off the list, the industry will be turning its attention to the last one on the calendar: the Actor Awards (previously SAG). This is the final major indicator before the 98th Academy Awards.
Given the upsets we saw at the BAFTAs, things are suddenly getting far more interesting. Aramayo’s win showed us that no favorites are safe in this race, but it’ll be the results of the Actor Awards that really show us how likely Chalamet is to win Best Actor in a few weeks’ time. If he’s not named, we can expect the Marty Supreme star’s ‘Yes’ price to plummet.
Markets will respond to changes in narrative and rumors as they circulate in anticipation of both events, so this is a great time to look out for any new value picks that may appear. For more on these markets and how they work, read our Oscars prediction markets guide.
BAFTAs Prediction Market FAQs
While the Golden Globes often grab the most headlines, the BAFTAs are more predictive because of the overlap in voting membership. Since crossover voters represent a substantial chunk of the industry's professional bloc, a win in London often signals exactly how the Oscar race will tilt in the final weeks of voting.
On Kalshi, the price of a contract directly reflects the market's perceived probability of that event occurring. Because contracts settle at $1.00 for a win and 0¢ for a loss, a price of 61¢ means the market believes there is a 61% chance that film will win. This wisdom of the crowd often reacts faster to industry news and buzz than traditional sportsbook odds.
Historically, yes. The BAFTAs often favor UK-produced films or homegrown talent (like Robert Aramayo). However, since the ceremony moved to precede the Oscars, the British Academy has become much more global in its tastes to maintain its status as a top-tier Oscar bellwether.
Yes. Unlike a traditional sportsbook where your bet is locked until the event ends, Kalshi allows you to buy and sell contracts at any time while the market is open. If you buy a candidate at 40¢ and their momentum increases, driving the price up to 70¢, you can sell your shares for a 30¢ profit per share before the first envelope is even opened.
In the rare event of a tie at the ceremony, Kalshi typically resolves the market based on specific contract rules. Most often, if two nominees are declared winners, both ‘Yes’ contracts for those specific winners will resolve to 100¢. It is always recommended to check the specific rules on the Kalshi contract page for the exact settlement protocol.
