Traders are getting behind the films they expect to either win or lose at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards, but with one of the biggest precursor events around the corner we could be about to see some significant changes in contract pricing.
The BAFTA Film Awards serves as the ultimate high-stakes precursor for Hollywood’s biggest night. The British Academy shares a significant voting bloc with its American counterpart, so we can expect traders to act swiftly in response to any unexpected wins or snubs on February 22.
Key Takeaways:
- With significant voting overlap between them, the BAFTA results are a reliable indicator of momentum shifts before the Oscars.
- Categories like Leading Actor and Supporting Actress are good value on Kalshi, as the British Academy has been known to favor homegrown talent.
- Markets suggest a potential split in top categories. Paul Thomas Anderson is a potential lock for Director, making the Best Film race more volatile.
On Kalshi, the prediction markets are already heating up as traders weigh Paul Thomas Anderson’s 13-nomination powerhouse One Battle After Another against Ryan Coogler’s horror Sinners, which got a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations. But everything could change once the BAFTA winners are revealed.
Let’s see how things stand on the BAFTA prediction markets at the moment.
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BAFTA prediction markets: The frontrunners
BAFTA for best film
BAFTA for best original screenplay
BAFTA for leading actor
BAFTA for leading actress
BAFTA for supporting actor
BAFTA for supporting actress
BAFTA for best director
BAFTAs 2026: Five of the best value picks available now
Heavyweights like One Battle After Another may be leading the nominations, but on prediction markets like Kalshi, the true opportunity lies in identifying any dark horses that have been overlooked by other traders.
The following value picks bypass the obvious frontrunners, focusing on nominees who may have the advantage (but still come at a relatively low price) in their respective categories.
Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) | ‘Yes’ 43¢
Teyana Taylor is currently in a neck-and-neck race against Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, which is why she’s excellent value right now.
Taylor's performance in One Battle After Another has been highly acclaimed, and the BAFTAs are known for using the Supporting categories to reward breakout performances.
‘Sentimental Value’ (Original Screenplay) | ‘Yes’ 48¢
The market is currently behind Sinners, but Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value is the quintessential BAFTA winner.
The British Academy has a long history of rewarding sophisticated dramas like this in the Screenplay category. The fact that the film is now priced as a coin flip makes it a smart buy against the frontrunner.
Stellan Skarsgård (Supporting Actor) | ‘No’ 23¢
Skarsgård is priced as a heavy favorite to win (89¢), but a ‘No’ contract for him is a good strategic value play at the moment. We’re used to Oscar favorites being overlooked at the BAFTAs, and the Academy may well opt to spread the wealth in this category.
Robert Aramayo (Leading Actor) | ‘Yes’ at 9¢
Robert Aramayo is the ultimate longshot, but there’s value to be found in picks like these. While Chalamet is the clear favorite, at a massive 77¢, the BAFTAs frequently prioritize British actors over American superstars.
Aramayo has significant momentum in the UK, so it wouldn’t come as a huge surprise if the BAFTA went to him. Looking at current prices, Aramayo’s implied probability is only 9%, but in reality his chance of victory is much higher.
One Battle After Another (Best Film) | ‘No’ 42¢
Betting against the favorite in the top category can be a great idea. It’s all due to the preferential ballot system. Paul Thomas Anderson is a lock for Director, but Best Film often goes to a more populist or culturally resonant British film at this awards ceremony.
If there is a split between Director and Film, the field is wide open for an upset. And that means there’s real value to be found in betting against the favorite here.
What effect will these markets have on the Oscars?
The BAFTA winners are announced just days before the Academy Awards takes place, so we can expect huge changes in pricing on the Oscars prediction markets both in the run-up to the BAFTAs, and immediately afterwards.
Markets will respond to changes in narrative and rumors as they circulate in anticipation of both events, so it’s a great time to look out for any new value picks that may appear. For more on these markets and how they work, read our Oscars prediction markets guide.
BAFTAs Prediction Market FAQs
While the Golden Globes often grab the most headlines, the BAFTAs are more predictive because of the overlap in voting membership. Since crossover voters represent a substantial chunk of the industry's professional bloc, a win in London often signals exactly how the Oscar race will tilt in the final weeks of voting.
On Kalshi, the price of a contract directly reflects the market's perceived probability of that event occurring. Because contracts settle at $1.00 for a win and 0¢ for a loss, a price of 61¢ means the market believes there is a 61% chance that film will win. This wisdom of the crowd often reacts faster to industry news and buzz than traditional sportsbook odds.
Historically, yes. The BAFTAs often favor UK-produced films or homegrown talent (like Robert Aramayo). However, since the ceremony moved to precede the Oscars, the British Academy has become much more global in its tastes to maintain its status as a top-tier Oscar bellwether.
Yes. Unlike a traditional sportsbook where your bet is locked until the event ends, Kalshi allows you to buy and sell contracts at any time while the market is open. If you buy a candidate at 40¢ and their momentum increases, driving the price up to 70¢, you can sell your shares for a 30¢ profit per share before the first envelope is even opened.
In the rare event of a tie at the ceremony, Kalshi typically resolves the market based on specific contract rules. Most often, if two nominees are declared winners, both ‘Yes’ contracts for those specific winners will resolve to 100¢. It is always recommended to check the specific rules on the Kalshi contract page for the exact settlement protocol.
