The Norwegian Nobel Committee has done it again. In a decision that sent every 'Yes' contract crashing down to zero, the committee bypassed every single favorite for the 2026 prize.
In the end, the prize was awarded to former UN High Commissioner Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, a decision US President Donald Trump was, unsurprisingly, unhappy with!
Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds 2026
Traders on prediction platforms like Kalshi had spent millions pricing in Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, Doctors Without Borders, and political heavyweights in the weeks running up to the announcement.
Instead, the committee chose the South African human rights pioneer for her lifelong defense of international law and legal principles.
On this occasion, the whole board was wiped out when the award was won by someone very few had tipped for the prize beforehand. Here’s how it unfolded.
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Key Takeaways:
- Market Wiped Out: Navi Pillay wasn’t listed as an active contract on Kalshi’s main prediction board, so 'Yes' traders lost out this time.
- Favorites Fail: Market frontrunners like Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and Save Ukraine all collapsed to 0¢ when the official press release landed.
- Trump Denied Again: Donald Trump’s longshot 'Yes' position expired worthless at 0¢. The former President slammed the decision at a New York rally, calling the decision "disgraceful and embarrassing.”
- Pillay Fights Back: As she accepted the honor, 85-year-old Pillay roasted Trump’s complaints, quipping "if you clap more I might share it with him."
Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Market Prices Prior to 2026 Announcement
| Nominee |  |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 16% | 16¢ | 85¢ |
| Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | 10% | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| Save the Children | 7% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5% | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 4% | 4¢ | 98¢ |
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Winners: Navi Pillay and International Law Advocates
The ultimate winner of the day was South African jurist Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, who was honored for her work defending international law and anti-apartheid activism.
Pillay, who previously served as a judge on the International Criminal Court and as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is exactly the type of institutional human rights defender the Norwegian panel historically favors. And yet no one saw her win coming.
Pillay Roasts Trump Following Nobel Peace Prize Win
It didn't take long for politics to enter the conversation. Donald Trump was quick to voice his outrage over the decision.
At a campaign event, Trump said the panel's decision had left an "indelible stain" on Norway, and claimed he should have won multiple peace prizes.
When asked about the former President’s reaction during her acceptance remarks, Pillay delivered a mic-drop moment. Soaking in the applause from the room, she joked: “If you clap more I might share it with him.”
Prediction Market Traders Lose Out After Surprise Pillay Win
It wasn’t just Trump that was left disappointed with the Nobel Committee’s decision on October 9. Those holding contracts for Kalshi favorites too lost out.
Navi Pillay wasn’t listed on Kalshi’s main probability board, which meant that much of the $5.6 million in traded volume settled to zero. Those with 'Yes' contracts for individual names and organisations ended up with nothing, while 'No' traders won.
Trading as the 16¢ favorite ahead of decision day, grassroots aid network Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) appeared to fit all the criteria for this year’s award. The group drew immense public support, but the committee chose an individual this time.
Trump’s 'Yes' contract entered Friday morning sitting at just 1¢, reflecting skepticism over his ongoing geopolitical feuds. His 'No' contract proved to be one of the few safe hedges. It paid out at 100¢, though profits on that one were minimal for traders.
Earlier speculative leads like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian figurehead Mykola Kuleba were completely bypassed. The Norwegian panel once again demonstrated its preference for legal frameworks and human rights over sitting political leaders.
Nobel Peace Prize Odds 2026: Why the Board Flipped
Prediction market prices are largely driven by media hype and changes in public narratives.
While sportsbooks and traders spent the final 48 hours pouring money into frontline civilian groups like Sudan's ERRs and Save the Children, the committee's members kept their focus on the defense of global legal norms.
It’s a stark reminder for prediction traders: when betting on closed-door selection panels, high-profile media chatter rarely mirrors what’s actually happening inside the room. The Nobel Peace Prize winner remains incredibly difficult to predict.
Will traders do better in 2027? Let’s see.
Doug Eldridge: Trump win "more possible than probable, but nothing is impossible"
Speculation around Donald Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize chances was rife this time last year, but before the 2026 award his odds were looking slimmer than ever.
We spoke to Doug Eldridge, founder and partner at Achilles PR to find out whether Trump’s critics were right about his narrowing chances of success.
“From the president’s vantage point, winning the Peace Prize would likely shift the conversation around his legacy, from feelings to facts; it’s the distinction between subjective versus objective analysis.”
“To be clear, Trump’s critics and detractors will likely not be swayed if he was to win the prize, but from that point forward, he could point to the selection by the Nobel Committee, as ‘facts’ compared to the ‘feelings’ and opinions of his detractors.”
As Eldridge explains, “there is a parallel analogy right now, in the National Football League.”
“Eli Manning played 16 seasons, made four Pro Bowl appearances, had 210 consecutive regular season starts, ranks 11th all-time in both passing yardage and touchdowns, and most importantly, won two Super Bowls, defeating Tom Brady both times.
Yet, despite these accolades and accomplishments, there is an endless debate across sports bars in the United States, as to whether Manning should have been a ‘First-ballot Hall of Famer.' His first year of eligibility was 2025; he was a finalist, but ultimately, was not selected.”
“Point being, sometimes your accomplishments yield to the (subjective) eye of the beholder. So too, might be the case for Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize.”
In terms of Trump’s realistic chances of a win, Eldridge thinks “it might be more possible than probable, but nothing is impossible.”
“It’s also important to distinguish between possibility and probability, as it relates to the likelihood of Trump winning the Peace Prize.”
”The five-member Norwegian panel, which reviews and determines the winners each year, is purportedly selected in order to reflect a balanced representation of the current political parties, in Norway.”
”While other categories lean more on the empirical discoveries or advancements in the hard sciences, the Peace Prize is often thought to align with more liberal international movements and ideologies.”
For context, there have only been four U.S. Presidents to win the Nobel Peace Prize—Roosevelt, Wilson, Carter, and Obama—but only one of them was a republican; Roosevelt, in 1906.”
Many commentators have pointed to Trump’s recent decisions as the cause of dwindling Nobel Peace Prize odds, but Eldridge advises caution here. “Peace and passivity are not the same thing. Trump has often strived for peace—to varying effect—but he has never been passive.”
This year’s introduction of new tarriffs, for example, might not have hurt Trump’s chances as much as some might think, argues Eldridge.
“Trade relations and military aggression should not be conflated as interchangeable synonyms; the tariffs between the U.S. and Canada were designed as a leverage point to rebalance the multi-billion dollar trade deficit.”
“While the tariffs might have seemed like an economic torpedo to Canadians, they are clearly not tantamount to launching (literal) cruise missiles at battlefield adversaries.”
Trump may not have campaigned for the prize in 2026 in the same way as he did in 2025, but that doesn’t mean there wasn't any work going on behind the scenes.
“Individuals often campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize, though usually in a more discreet manner, than Trump has employed.”
“In terms of the overall impact, there is conflicting information as to whether it helps or hurts with the jury, but I think there are more effective strategies and tactics available to the president,” says Eldridge.
Nobel Peace Prize Odds 2026: Picks to Consider
Prediction markets aren't just about picking the ultimate winner, as you would with a sportsbook. To profit on these markets, you need to be able to identify places where the crowd has overreacted or fundamentally underpriced a potential outcome, and move quickly to capitalize on that.
In a highly speculative market like this one, finding instances like this allows traders to build an edge. These were our top picks from the 2026 board.
Mark Carney | 'Yes' 1.5¢ | Chance: 1.5%
Resolved: ❌ 'No' traders won
The Canadian PM has rarely been out of the news this year. He tried (with mixed results) to be a presence at this year's World Cup, which Canada co-hosted.
He's also toying with the idea of Canada becoming an "associate member" of the European Union. It would, Carney said, be a "positive" move. It would, however, anger the hell out of the Americans.
Carney is undoubtedly positioning himself as the leader of the "middle powers", something that became evident at the UN last week. Diplomatic strain between the U.S. and Canada shows no sign of stopping. But so far, Carney has held off using the exteme rhetoric that Donald Trump opts for.
Two things are clear: going on Nobel Peace Prize history, Carney has a better chance than humanitarian organizations of winning. And secondly, a Carney win would send Trump apoplectic. Don't expect Carney to donate his prize to POTUS any time soon.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 'Yes' 16¢ | Chance: 16%
Resolved: ❌ 'No' traders won
The ERRs are currently trading at 16¢, with a 16% implied probability. This is down from two months ago, when ERRs was 27¢, but it's still the highest price on the board.
Given the horrific scale of the Sudanese conflict and the Nobel Committee's historic tendency to reward the work of localized mutual-aid networks (similar to past winners), this is a reasonable price for a likely winner.
If anything, the market could be underestimating how much the committee favors decentralized civilian heroism over high-profile but controversial figures.
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | 'Yes' 4¢ | Chance: 3%
Resolved: ❌ 'No' traders won
Trading at an implied probability of 3% (4¢), Medicins Sans Frontieres is a classic institutional hedge. This organization has won before, but it was back in 1999, so it’s possible that it could be rewarded once again.
The non-stop frontline operations of MSF across multiple major active global warzones means they’re never out of the spotlight, and if the Nobel comittee is looking for a universally respected organization that’ll avoid any political controversy MSF could well be a winner. At 4¢, it’s an incredibly cheap position.
Save the Children | 'Yes' 8¢ | Chance: 7%
Resolved: ❌ 'No' traders won
Save the Children has never won the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the NGO is involved with annual celebrations, hosting the Peace Prize Party at the Nobel Peace Center.
Save the Children responds to international emergencies, providing aid, food and medicines in 92 countries.
And the organization has had its work cut out this year, with emergencies in Yemen, Iran and beyond. No doubt, some would argue Save the Children's win would be a political one, but after the Trump debacle last year, voters may play safe.
Donald Trump | 'No' 99¢
Resolved: ✅ 'No' traders won
Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what’s happened this year in Iran we can’t see that happening again. He may well have decent odds at sportsbooks, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is near-zero.
Traders know that the Norwegian Nobel Committee tends to avoid polarizing political figures like Trump, and if they were unlikely to make him a winner last year they’re even less likely to do so this time around. The ‘No’ position is a highly secure contract to lock in.
Tips for Nobel Peace Prize Traders
To navigate the Nobel peace prize prediction market, you need to be one step ahead of the narrative.
Traders who are able to identify instances where political noise has been mispriced, and act quickly, can take advantage of low prices and sell contracts as they start to rise.
Here are a few tips to help you maximize your risk-to-reward ratio.
- Watch the News Cycle: Keep a close eye on official press releases from the Norwegian Nobel Institute. Leaks are rare, but shifts in diplomatic priorities or high-profile peace negotiations can cause immediate spikes.
- The Flip Strategy: You do not need to hold your contracts until October. Buying a candidate like Sudan's ERRs at 13¢ and selling if the ‘Yes’ price moves over 40¢ allows you to capture profit while eliminating settlement risk.
- Managing Volatility: In low-probability fields where no single candidate clears 30%, diversify across multiple 'Yes' positions or make the most of high-confidence 'No' positions to balance your portfolio.
How to Trade the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi
Taking a position on global events via Kalshi is simple. These prediction markets are fully regulated and you can sign up for a new account in just a few minutes. Here’s how to do it.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi, complete the verification process, and fund your account via ACH, wire or card.
- Navigate: Head to the "Politics" or "International" tab and search for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner market.
- Execute: Choose your candidate, select either a 'Yes' or 'No' contract, enter your desired contract quantity and submit the order.
- Monitor: Track market movements leading up to October. You have the option to sell your contracts early if you want to take profit or cut losses before the final announcement.
Nobel Peace Prize History: What Can We Learn from Past Winners?
Below is a list of Nobel Peace Prize recipients since 2000. Take a look through them and you’ll see themes emerge in terms of the types of organizations and individuals that the committee typically rewards.
Understanding how the committee thinks is key to predicting what it might do next, and which names on the board are undervalued.
| Year | Winner(s) | Reason Given |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Maria Corina Machado | "For her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy." |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo | “For its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again.” |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi | “For her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all.” |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and the Center for Civil Liberties | “The Peace Prize laureates represent civil society in their home countries. They have for many years promoted the right to criticize power and protect the fundamental rights of citizens. They have made an outstanding effort to document war crimes, human right abuses and the abuse of power. Together they demonstrate the significance of civil society for peace and democracy.” |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov | “For their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, which is a precondition for democracy and lasting peace.” |
| 2020 | World Food Programme | “For its efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict.” |
| 2019 | Abiy Ahmed Ali | “For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea.” |
| 2018 | Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad | “For their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.” |
| 2017 | International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons | “For its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.” |
| 2016 | Juan Manuel Santos | “For his resolute efforts to bring the country's more than 50-year-long civil war to an end.” |
| 2015 | National Dialogue Quartet | “For its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011.” |
| 2014 | Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai | “For their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education.” |
| 2013 | Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons | “For its extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons.” |
| 2012 | European Union | “For over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.” |
| 2011 | Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkol Karman | “For their non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work.” |
| 2010 | Liu Xiaobo | “For his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.” |
| 2009 | Barack Obama | “For his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” |
| 2008 | Martti Ahtisaari | “For his important efforts, on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts.” |
| 2007 | International Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore | “For their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.” |
| 2006 | Muhammad Yunus and Grameen Bank | “For their efforts to create economic and social development from below.” |
| 2005 | International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei | “For their efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest possible way.” |
| 2004 | Wangari Maathai | “For her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.” |
| 2003 | Shirin Ebadi | “For her efforts for democracy and human rights. She has focused especially on the struggle for the rights of women and children.” |
| 2002 | Jimmy Carter |
“For his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.” |
| 2001 | United Nations and Kofi Annan | “For their work for a better organized and more peaceful world.” |
| 2000 | Kim Dae-jung | “For his work for democracy and human rights in South Korea and in East Asia in general, and for peace and reconciliation with North Korea in particular.” |
🕰️📈 Nobel Peace Prize Trends
- The first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901 when Switzerland’s Henry Dunant and Frederic Passy earned the honors.
- You can be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize more than once. In fact, the International Committee of the Red Cross has been awarded the prize a record three times.
- Four U.S. Presidents have been awarded the prize, with Theodore Roosevelt (1906), Woodrow Wilson (1919), Jimmy Carter (2002), and Barack Obama (2009) earning the honors. Carter was the only one out of the four that was not a sitting president at the time he was named the winner.
- There have been five Nobel Peace Prize recipients that were under arrest at the time that they were announced as laureates. They were Carl von Ossietzky (1935), Aung San Suu Kyi (1991), Ales Bialiatski (2002), and Narges Mohammadi (2023).
The Nobel Peace Prize odds are also available on sportsbooks. Check the latest odds on FanDuel ahead of this year's big announcement.
Nobel Peace Prize Prediction Market FAQs
The winner is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member body appointed by the Parliament of Norway. Their choice is completely independent and announced annually in early October. The market resolves precisely based on the official committee declaration.
Yes, you can trade your contracts at any point before the market officially closes ahead of the announcement. If a candidate you bought spikes in value, you can sell early to secure profits. This flexibility allows traders to mitigate risk during volatile geopolitical shifts.
If the committee chooses to split the prize among multiple joint winners, the market will resolve according to Kalshi’s specific rulebook listings. Typically, contracts for any of the officially named co-laureates resolve to 100¢. It is vital to check the contract's specific rule details before opening large positions.
If the Norwegian Nobel Committee selects an individual or organization not explicitly listed on the board, the 'No' contracts for all listed candidates will resolve to 100¢. Meanwhile, the 'Yes' contracts for those specific listed entities will expire worthless at 0¢. That’s why broad 'No' portfolios are an effective hedge against a highly unpredictable committee.
Yes, Kalshi enforces strict position limits across its markets to comply with CFTC regulatory standards and preserve exchange integrity. While these caps are typically high enough to accommodate substantial retail and institutional volume, you should check the contract's specific limit tab before executing large scale trades. Exceeding these predefined boundaries requires special regulatory clearance or an institutional account structure.
