It’s an unfortunate sign of the times. Even the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t a particularly peaceful process anymore.
Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado was announced as the winner in 2025, but it wasn’t long before we got word that she’d presented the medal to US President Donald Trump, in a symbolic gesture at a private White House meeting. The Nobel committee was quick to state that the prize "cannot be revoked, shared or transferred to others," though, leaving Trump still waiting for that coveted award.
We saw huge speculation around last year’s award right up until the final moment, with sportsbooks naming Donald Trump as a clear favorite until Machado was announced as the winner. Soon, commentators were questioning whether 2026 could be Trump’s year, but with US-Iran tensions now escalating once again prediction market traders are incredibly skeptical.
Key Takeaways:
- Grassroots Leading the Pack: Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) represent the current market favorite, with the highest implied probability on the board.
- Institutions Gaining Traction: Prices have been rising for traditional favorites like Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières).
- Trump no longer favorite: Donald Trump is no longer seen as a viable option, given the recent conflict with Iran. His ‘Yes’ price has dropped from 35¢ to 4¢.
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It’s a volatile board, with prices moving at considerable pace for many names. And that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, given shifting alliances and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
However there is one thing that traders appear to agree on, and that's the expectation that this year, it'll go to a frontline humanitarian organization rather than a high-profile political name.
There’s already been significant volume on Kalshi, with nearly $700,000 pouring in since the market opened. But predicting the next move of the Norwegian Nobel Committee is never an easy matter.
Currently, the favorite is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, with a 24% implied probability on Kalshi. The community-led initiative is closely followed by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) at 13% and Save the Children at 9%.
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Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Early Market Favorites for 2026
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Take one look at this year’s leaderboard and you can clearly see the sentiment trend from traders. This year, the market is backing humanitarian responses, amid global conflict.
Sudan’s ERRs holds the top spot due to its critical role in managing what the UN calls a monumental humanitarian crisis. But with the favorite sitting at just a 23% implied probability, the market is far from decided on this one.
On a volatile board like this, any breaking news over the summer could easily result in huge price swings. So look past the favorites and consider all the options before you make a decision.
Nobel Peace Prize Odds: Early Picks to Consider
Prediction markets aren't just about picking the ultimate winner, as you would with a sportsbook. To profit on these markets, you need to be able to identify places where the crowd has overreacted or fundamentally underpriced a potential outcome, and move quickly to capitalize on that.
In a highly speculative market like this one, finding instances like this allows traders to build an edge. Here are a few to consider right now.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 'Yes' 28¢
The ERRs are currently trading at 28¢, with a 24% implied probability. Given the horrific scale of the Sudanese conflict and the Nobel Committee's historic tendency to reward the work of localized mutual-aid networks (similar to past winners), this is a reasonable price for a likely winner.
If anything, the market could be underestimating how much the committee favors decentralized civilian heroism over high-profile but controversial figures.
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | 'Yes' 17¢
Trading at an implied probability of 13% (17¢), MSF is a classic institutional hedge. This organization has won before, but it was back in 1999, so it’s possible that it could be rewarded once again.
The non-stop frontline operations of MSF across multiple major active global warzones means they’re never out of the spotlight, and if the Nobel comittee is looking for a universally respected organization that’ll avoid any political controversy MSF could well be a winner. At 17¢, it’s an incredibly cheap position if you buy early.
Donald Trump | 'No' 96¢
Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what’s happened this year we can’t see that happening again. He may well have decent odds at sportsbooks, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026.
Traders know that the Norwegian Nobel Committee tends to avoid polarizing political figures like Trump, and if they were unlikely to make him a winner last year they’re even more so this time around. The ‘No’ position is a highly secure contract to lock in.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 'No' 92¢
Volodymyr Zelenskyy sits at an 8% win probability, making his 'No' contract worth 92¢. While his defiance against aggression remains globally recognized, the Nobel Committee rarely awards the Peace Prize to a wartime leader while an active military conflict is ongoing. Backing 'No' is a safe option, even if the returns are modest.
Why the Nobel Peace Prize Markets are Shifting
The underlying structure of the Nobel Peace Prize selection process relies heavily on a closed-door nomination system, and that means that the price changes you see on Kalshi’s prediction markets are driven largely by media narratives and political breakthroughs.
The committee's past decisions (such as awarding the 2024 prize to Nihon Hidankyo and 2025 to Maria Corina Machado) show that human rights advocacy and civilian resilience are the priority, rather than institutional power structures. Traders are adjusting their portfolios away from heads of state for this exact reason.
As major conflicts continue to dominate international headlines, the consensus is that a neutral humanitarian organization or a human rights defender will take the prize once again. So we can expect political longshots to bleed value steadily over the coming months.
Tips for Nobel Peace Prize Traders
To navigate the Nobel peace prize prediction market, you need to be one step ahead of the narrative.
Traders who are able to identify instances where political noise has been mispriced, and act quickly, can take advantage of low prices and sell contracts as they start to rise.
Here are a few tips to help you maximize your risk-to-reward ratio.
- Watch the News Cycle: Keep a close eye on official press releases from the Norwegian Nobel Institute. Leaks are rare, but shifts in diplomatic priorities or high-profile peace negotiations can cause immediate spikes.
- The Flip Strategy: You do not need to hold your contracts until October. Buying a candidate like Sudan's ERRs at 23¢ and selling if the ‘Yes’ price moves over 40¢ allows you to capture profit while eliminating settlement risk.
- Managing Volatility: In low-probability fields where no single candidate clears 30%, diversify across multiple 'Yes' positions or make the most of high-confidence 'No' positions to balance your portfolio.
How to Trade the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi
Taking a position on global events via Kalshi is simple. These prediction markets are fully regulated and you can sign up for a new account in just a few minutes. Here’s how to do it.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi, complete the verification process, and fund your account via ACH, wire or card.
- Navigate: Head to the "Politics" or "International" tab and search for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner market.
- Execute: Choose your candidate, select either a 'Yes' or 'No' contract, enter your desired contract quantity and submit the order.
- Monitor: Track market movements leading up to October. You have the option to sell your contracts early if you want to take profit or cut losses before the final announcement.
Nobel Peace Prize History: What can we learn from past winners?
Below is a list of Nobel Peace Prize recipients since 2000. Take a look through them and you’ll see themes emerge in terms of the types of organizations and individuals that the committee typically rewards.
Understanding how the committee thinks is key to predicting what it might do next, and which names on the board are undervalued.
| Year | Winner(s) | Reason Given |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Maria Corina Machado | "For her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy." |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo | “For its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again.” |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi | “For her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all.” |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and the Center for Civil Liberties | “The Peace Prize laureates represent civil society in their home countries. They have for many years promoted the right to criticize power and protect the fundamental rights of citizens. They have made an outstanding effort to document war crimes, human right abuses and the abuse of power. Together they demonstrate the significance of civil society for peace and democracy.” |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov | “For their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, which is a precondition for democracy and lasting peace.” |
| 2020 | World Food Programme | “For its efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict.” |
| 2019 | Abiy Ahmed Ali | “For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea.” |
| 2018 | Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad | “For their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.” |
| 2017 | International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons | “For its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.” |
| 2016 | Juan Manuel Santos | “For his resolute efforts to bring the country's more than 50-year-long civil war to an end.” |
| 2015 | National Dialogue Quartet | “For its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011.” |
| 2014 | Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai | “For their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education.” |
| 2013 | Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons | “For its extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons.” |
| 2012 | European Union | “For over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.” |
| 2011 | Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkol Karman | “For their non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work.” |
| 2010 | Liu Xiaobo | “For his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.” |
| 2009 | Barack Obama | “For his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” |
| 2008 | Martti Ahtisaari | “For his important efforts, on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts.” |
| 2007 | International Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore | “For their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.” |
| 2006 | Muhammad Yunus and Grameen Bank | “For their efforts to create economic and social development from below.” |
| 2005 | International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei | “For their efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest possible way.” |
| 2004 | Wangari Maathai | “For her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.” |
| 2003 | Shirin Ebadi | “For her efforts for democracy and human rights. She has focused especially on the struggle for the rights of women and children.” |
| 2002 | Jimmy Carter |
“For his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.” |
| 2001 | United Nations and Kofi Annan | “For their work for a better organized and more peaceful world.” |
| 2000 | Kim Dae-jung | “For his work for democracy and human rights in South Korea and in East Asia in general, and for peace and reconciliation with North Korea in particular.” |
🕰️📈 Nobel Peace Prize Trends
- The first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901 with Switzerland’s Henry Dunant and Frederic Passy earning the honors.
- You can be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize more than once. In fact, the International Committee of the Red Cross has been awarded the Prize a record three times.
- Four U.S. Presidents have been awarded the Prize with Theodore Roosevelt (1906), Woodrow Wilson (1919), Jimmy Carter (2002), and Barack Obama (2009) earning the honors. Carter was the only one out of the four that was not a sitting president at the time he was named the winner.
- There have been five Nobel Peace Prize recipients that were under arrest at the time that they were announced as laureates. They were Carl von Ossietzky (1935), Aung San Suu Kyi (1991), Ales Bialiatski (2002), and Narges Mohammadi (2023).
The Nobel Peace Prize odds are also available on sportsbooks. Check the latest odds on FanDuel ahead of this year's big annoucement.
Nobel Peace Prize Prediction Market FAQs
The winner is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member body appointed by the Parliament of Norway. Their choice is completely independent and announced annually in early October. The market resolves precisely based on the official committee declaration.
Yes, you can trade your contracts at any point before the market officially closes ahead of the announcement. If a candidate you bought spikes in value, you can sell early to secure profits. This flexibility allows traders to mitigate risk during volatile geopolitical shifts.
If the committee chooses to split the prize among multiple joint winners, the market will resolve according to Kalshi’s specific rulebook listings. Typically, contracts for any of the officially named co-laureates resolve to 100¢. It is vital to check the contract's specific rule details before opening large positions.
If the Norwegian Nobel Committee selects an individual or organization not explicitly listed on the board, the 'No' contracts for all listed candidates will resolve to 100¢. Meanwhile, the 'Yes' contracts for those specific listed entities will expire worthless at 0¢. That’s why broad 'No' portfolios are an effective hedge against a highly unpredictable committee.
Yes, Kalshi enforces strict position limits across its markets to comply with CFTC regulatory standards and preserve exchange integrity. While these caps are typically high enough to accommodate substantial retail and institutional volume, you should check the contract's specific limit tab before executing large scale trades. Exceeding these predefined boundaries requires special regulatory clearance or an institutional account structure.
