In an unfortunate sign of the times, even the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize is no longer a peaceful process.
Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado won this past year’s Prize, but weeks later she presented the award to US President Donald Trump. The Nobel committee has since said the prize is non-transferable.
The committee is now turning its eyes toward 2026, with the announcement of this year’s award expected to come in October. The current favorite to win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms. It currently has a +300 price at FanDuel Canada and a 27 cent Yes contract at Kalshi.
Other top contenders include Trump (+430), Doctors Without Borders (+650), and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+1400).
Here are the latest Nobel Peace Prize odds from FanDuel.
Nobel Peace Prize odds
The latest Nobel Peace Prize odds show Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms as the betting favorite as it has a +300 price.
| Person | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| Donald Trump | +430 | 18.8% | $43 |
| Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | +650 | 13.3% | $65 |
| UNRWA | +850 | 10.5% | $85 |
| David Attenborough | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Julian Assange | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | +1100 | 8.3% | $110 |
| International Court of Justice | +1100 | 8.3% | $110 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Narges Mohammadi | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Pope Leo XIV | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Greta Thunberg | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| European Union | +1800 | 5.88% | $160 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Key Takeaways:
- The Nobel Peace Prize market has not matured yet, as we are only three months into the calendar year. With so much war and conflict currently going on in the world, look for a world leader who steps up and puts an end to one of these conflicts to immediately shoot up the board.
- It is highly unlikely that Trump gets consideration again considering all of the backlash he is currently getting for engaging with Iran.
- Last year’s winner, Maria Corina Machado, had just a 3.75% chance of winning on Polymarket the day before she was announced as the recipient. So, betting on a longshot here is not the worst idea.
- Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the highest riser on the board, having shot up five percentage points in recent days.
- The committee traditionally leans towards political liberalism. For instance, in the past 26 years liberal U.S. politicians Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, and Barack Obama have been named Nobel Peace Prize laureates. No one from the “right wing” of the US political aisle has been a recipient of the prestigious award during that time. So, the committee giving Trump the honor would be a big break from the norm.
🔥 Nobel Peace Prize odds: Favorite
🥈 Nobel Peace Prize odds: Contenders
Julian Assange (+1000): The WikiLeaks founder is a staunch advocate of press freedom and whistleblowing. The director of a recent documentary about Assange, titled The Six Billion Dollar Man said that Assange was “a canary in the coal mine” when it comes to foretelling the current state of the United States, and current world problems.
🎯 Nobel Peace Prize odds: Longshots
Yulia Navalnaya (+1100): Navalnaya’s husband, Alexei Navalny, was Vladimir Putin’s most prominent domestic rival. Navalny died in a Russian prison in the Arctic Circle in 2024, but Navalnaya has gallantly pushed the Russian opposition movement forward.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+1400): Zelenskyy supporters argue that his leadership in the Russia/Ukraine war, and his embodiment of the resistance to the Russian invasion is more than enough for him to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Nobel Peace Prize history
Below is a list of Nobel Peace Prize recipients since 2000.
| Year | Winner(s) | Claim to Fame |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Maria Corina Machado | "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy." |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo | “For its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again.” |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi | “For her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all.” |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and the Center for Civil Liberties | “The Peace Prize laureates represent civil society in their home countries. They have for many years promoted the right to criticize power and protect the fundamental rights of citizens. They have made an outstanding effort to document war crimes, human right abuses and the abuse of power. Together they demonstrate the significance of civil society for peace and democracy.” |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov | “For their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, which is a precondition for democracy and lasting peace.” |
| 2020 | World Food Programme | “For its efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict.” |
| 2019 | Abiy Ahmed Ali | “For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea.” |
| 2018 | Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad | “For their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.” |
| 2017 | International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons | “For its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.” |
| 2016 | Juan Manuel Santos | “For his resolute efforts to bring the country's more than 50-year-long civil war to an end.” |
| 2015 | National Dialogue Quartet | “For its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011.” |
| 2014 | Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai | “For their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education.” |
| 2013 | Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons | “For its extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons.” |
| 2012 | European Union | “For over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.” |
| 2011 | Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkol Karman | “For their non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work.” |
| 2010 | Liu Xiaobo | “For his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.” |
| 2009 | Barack Obama | “For his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” |
| 2008 | Martti Ahtisaari | “For his important efforts, on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts.” |
| 2007 | International Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore | “For their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.” |
| 2006 | Muhammad Yunus and Grameen Bank | “For their efforts to create economic and social development from below.” |
| 2005 | International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei | “For their efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest possible way.” |
| 2004 | Wangari Maathai | “For her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.” |
| 2003 | Shirin Ebadi | “For her efforts for democracy and human rights. She has focused especially on the struggle for the rights of women and children.” |
| 2002 | Jimmy Carter |
“For his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.” |
| 2001 | United Nations and Kofi Annan | “For their work for a better organized and more peaceful world.” |
| 2000 | Kim Dae-jung | “For his work for democracy and human rights in South Korea and in East Asia in general, and for peace and reconciliation with North Korea in particular.” |
🕰️📈 Nobel Peace Prize Trends
- The first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901 with Switzerland’s Henry Dunant and Frederic Passy earning the honors.
- You can be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize more than once. In fact, the International Committee of the Red Cross has been awarded the Prize a record three times.
- Four U.S. Presidents have been awarded the Prize with Theodore Roosevelt (1906), Woodrow Wilson (1919), Jimmy Carter (2002), and Barack Obama (2009) earning the honors. Carter was the only one out of the four that was not a sitting president at the time he was named the winner.
- There have been five Nobel Peace Prize recipients that were under arrest at the time that they were announced as laureates. They were Carl von Ossietzky (1935), Aung San Suu Kyi (1991), Ales Bialiatski (2002), and Narges Mohammadi (2023).
Learn more about the Nobel Peace Prize process here.
Nobel Peace Prize FAQs
This year's Nobel Peace Prize announcement will likely take place in early October.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms is the betting favorite to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. They are +300 to win.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won last year's Nobel Peace Prize.
The recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The committee consists of five members, and the five members are appointed by the Parliament of Norway.
Yes, the Nobel Peace Prize can be awarded to more than one recipient in the same year. In such cases, the award and recognition are shared among the laureates.
Nobel Peace Prize odds are set by oddsmakers who analyze factors like global events, expert predictions, and media speculation about potential laureates. These odds may shift as public sentiment and betting activity influence the market.
