The 2026 awards season kicks off with the Golden Globes on 11 January. Nominations were revealed on 8 December, giving us our first glimpse into the films and TV shows that might be destined for greatness over the next few months.
Key Takeaways
🥇 Widely regarded as the start of awards season, the Golden Globes takes place on 11 January
🥈 Most nominated movie goes to One Battle After Another, with nine nominations
🥉 There are two very strong contenders in the best motion picture (drama) category
There are 36 acting titles up for grabs at this year’s Golden Globes, as the awards are split between drama, musicals and comedy. So there’s scope for a few famous faces to take awards that they might be less likely to win at the Oscars, where there are only 20 acting statues available.
Our analysts have reviewed Kalshi’s latest Golden Globes prediction markets, to determine the best prices and most interesting picks ahead of the Los Angeles ceremony.
Let’s take a look at some of the markets that are generating the most interest right now.
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🏆 Best Motion Picture: Drama
📝 The shortest odds for best motion picture currently go to Sinners, the Mississippi-based thriller starring Michael B Jordan.
🔎 This was a huge box office hit on release, and with seven nominations it could well cause an upset in a couple of categories. Hamnet could be closing in on its position as favorite in this market, though.
🏆 Best Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
📝 One Battle after Another is undoubtedly the one to beat at this year’s Golden Globes. Starring none other than DiCaprio himself, the film is only the sixth in history to be nominated across all six acting categories.
🔎 Leonardo’s latest epic is highly likely to take one of the best motion picture prizes, along with quite a few others.
🏆 Best Motion Picture: Animated
📝 It would be an absolute travesty if awards season went ahead without giving a nod to what was undoubtedly the animated movie of 2025: KPop Demon Hunters.
🔎 Top price by a long way right now, Netflix’s hit musical about fictional KPop bands and their struggle to save the world while simultaneously keeping everyone dancing is this year’s pick for best animated motion picture. But Zootopia 2 is also in with a chance, and it’s currently priced well for a big win.
🏆 Best Screenplay
📝 Action thriller One Battle After Another leads the pack in this year’s nominations. Paul Thomas Anderson’s black comedy has been nominated in nine separate categories, and is expected to win many of those.
🔎 Current best screenplay prices suggest that the film is most likely to triumph here. Its listed probability is by far the strongest. But this is, as always, a fiercely contested category, and there’s been plenty of movement on those prices already. Other contenders to watch include It Was Just an Accident and Hamnet, both of which are closing in.
🏆 Best Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama
📝 The first Brazilian man ever to be nominated in this category is tipped for the win. According to the markets, Wagner Moura, who is nominated for his portrayal of Armando in the Secret Agent, has a serious chance of being named best actor in a motion picture in just a few weeks’ time.
🔎 Moura’s chances outshine those of his competitors by a long way; could this be a sure bet?
🏆 Best Actor in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
📝 Timothee Chalamet leads the odds for best actor in a musical or comedy. Chalamet plays aspiring ping pong champion Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme, a character said to be loosely based on the real-life player Marty Reisman.
🔎 If he wins, Chalamet will have five Golden Globes to his name. DiCaprio is also nominated in the same category, though, and prediction markets are giving the Oscar-winner a good chance of victory.
🏆 Best Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama
📝 Best actress in a motion picture looks likely to go to Jessie Buckley, for her portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife Agnes in Hamnet. The film is adapted from the novel by Maggie O'Farrell, and explores what might have inspired Shakespeare to write one of his most famous plays.
🔎 Looking at Kalshi’s current probabilities, Buckley’s only real competition comes from Renate Reinsve, for her role in Joachim Trier's film Sentimental Value. Currently priced far lower than Buckley, Reinsve is a decent sleeper.
🏆 Best Actress in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
📝 Rose Byrne is looking like another strong contender this awards season. Byrne is nominated for best actress in a musical or comedy for her powerful performance in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
🔎 Critically acclaimed actress Byrne has picked up a few best actress awards for this role already, so a yes for her currently comes at the highest price. Emma Stone could easily cause an upset with her role in Bugonia, though.
🏆 TV Series: Drama
📝 Gritty medical drama The Pitt picked up two nominations: best TV series (drama) and best actor, for Noah Wyle. While Wyle may well miss out on the best actor prize, the series itself looks likely to take the win in the drama category, with considerable probability at the moment.
🔎 This is one of the more competitive prediction markets for the Golden Globes, however. The Pitt may well lose out to either Pluribus or Severance. Keep an eye on this market, things could change swiftly.
