The end is nigh. Or is it? If you think you’ve got the answer, prediction markets like Kalshi now allow traders to put a price tag on impending catastrophe, which means we can now turn our anxieties into tradeable assets!
The options for betting on the end of the world are seemingly endless, with all manner of different demises there to trade on.
So, whether you think climate change will be the thing to end us all, you’re expecting a natural disaster the like of which we’ve never seen before or you feel we could be heading for a global economic collapse resulting from ever-increasing oil prices, Kalshi has contracts for it.
There’s even an option for extraterrestrials, if you think this could be the year that ET makes his long-awaited return to planet Earth. Because we all know that wouldn’t end well for us…
Key Takeaways:
- Prediction markets are putting real prices on the chance of catastrophe, and we can expect experts to shift prices well before news breaks.
- The probability of the U.S. government confirming aliens exist before 2027 has settled to 20%, though a 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that 65% of Americans believe that intelligent life does exist on other planets.
- ‘Yes’ contracts for a supervolcano eruption before 2050 are now trading at 27¢, implying a 27% chance of disaster.
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Given how accurate prediction markets have proven to be on things like the Oscars, we can safely say that the wisdom of the crowd is real. So, if you see any sudden price jumps on any of the below markets, you’ve been warned!
Here is a look at the current markets tracking the unthinkable.
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Do we need to prepare for the eruption of a supervolcano?
‘Yes’ 27¢ | 27% chance
If a supervolcano was to erupt, there’s no question that the impact would be devastating. The one that simmers beneath Yellowstone has the potential to trigger a volcanic winter, water contamination and crop failure should it erupt, as well as the deaths of everyone within hundreds of miles.
Kalshi has a market for a civilization-ending eruption before 2050, and it currently gives this somewhat terrifying situation a 31% probability. However, scientists maintain that a super-eruption is not due any time soon, and the volcano’s magma chamber is mostly solid. So, even if it was to erupt, it’d likely be a far more minor event.
The good news is that while a super-eruption is still possible, the United States Geological Survey has estimated the annual probability of that at one in 730,000 (0.00014%). And that means the 73¢ ‘No’ for this one is by far your best option (if you’ve got the patience to wait until 2050 for your payout).
Could we see a magnitude eight earthquake hit California?
‘Yes’ 8¢ | 8% chance
Living on the San Andreas Fault is a daily gamble, but a catastrophe of this magnitude is thankfully rare. While there are small tremors relatively frequently, an earthquake with a magnitude of eight or more would be a landscape-altering event, releasing an amount of energy that could prove catastrophic for those who live and work nearby.
This is a volatile market that’s proven sensitive to USGC updates as well as earthquake swarms in the area. Californians could well be purchasing ‘Yes’ contracts as a form of insurance, too. Because if an earthquake does occur and properties are destroyed, the market would pay out and limit the financial impact. Every cloud, as they say.
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth?
'Yes' 63¢ | 63% chance
When we talk about what might spell the end of human civilization, a meteor strike is never far from our minds. After all, it was a massive asteroid that spelt disaster for the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, so it’s not entirely implausible that a similar scenario could finish us off too.
Kalshi now allows traders to put a price on the probability of collision, which is one way to soften the blow. With this market, you can put money on whether a huge meteor (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) could impact Earth before 2030.
The market currently believes there's a 63% implied probability of impact, so things aren’t looking great for us at the moment. Statistically, the odds of an impact within this timeframe are much lower though, so ‘No’ is by far the better value option. If a new asteroid is discovered and added to the Sentry Risk Table, the ‘Yes’ price could well spike.
How many tornadoes are on the way this month?
Above 200 75¢ | 72%
Kalshi’s tornado market is verified by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and allows traders to predict the number of tornados in a given month.
It’s an important one to watch, because the aggregate number of tornadoes in a month can be an indicator of shifting weather patterns and the severity of storms in the weeks to come.
The wisdom of the crowd is real on markets like these, as meteorologists and storm chasers tend to put money behind their predictions and shape implied probabilities. And that means that, for the average observer, the market provides real-time insights into what could be ahead for the spring and summer seasons.
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will we see this year?
Market opening soon
Kalshi has a number of different hurricane prediction markets, but it’s the major hurricanes we’re keeping an eye on.
The volatility of hurricane season is hugely tied to global economic stability, so being able to predict the number of major hurricanes that might form before the end of the year gives us a good idea of what we need to prepare for.
Track this market and you can see exactly how much climate chaos traders think is on the way.
How to use prediction markets to bet on the end of the world
A prediction market is essentially an exchange where people trade 'Yes' or 'No' contracts on the outcome of specific events. On platforms like Kalshi, each contract pays out exactly $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not.
The price of a contract (between $0.01 and $0.99) represents the market's collective estimate of the event's likelihood. If a 'Yes' contract for a major hurricane is trading at 65¢, the market believes there is a 65% chance that hurricane will hit.
These markets are more accurate than things like social media polls, because traders have skin in the game. If you have private data or superior modeling suggesting a supervolcano is more likely to erupt than the current price reflects, you can buy 'Yes' contracts at a discount. If you're right, you profit; if you're wrong, you lose your stake
Every market has a predefined source of truth, which is often a government agency like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the USGS. This prevents disputes and ensures the market settles based on hard data rather than rumors.
Trading on catastrophic events like natural disasters requires a blend of scientific literacy and careful monitoring of news outlets:
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Identify the source: For weather and climate markets, traders look to model runs before they hit mainstream news channels. If models show a hurricane is heading towards land, Kalshi prices typically change before any warnings are issued by local news networks.
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Hedge your risks: Some use these markets as a form of insurance. For example, if you live in a high-risk earthquake zone, buying 'Yes' contracts on a magnitude 8.0 quake acts as a hedge. If the disaster occurs, a payout could cover insurance deductibles or relocation costs.
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Monitor information shocks: In the alien confirmation market, prices don't move based on rumored sightings. It’s the political signals that are being watched. Traders will be looking for scheduled Congressional declassifications, whistleblower filings, or changes in Department of Defense language. When a new hearing is announced, the price of 'Yes' often spikes as speculators bet on what might be revealed.
End of the world prediction market FAQs
Yes, if you are using a platform like Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These are technically event contracts, not traditional gambling. However, there are strict rules: markets cannot involve illegal activities, and there is some debate about banning contracts related to wars. Natural disasters and scientific discoveries like aliens are currently permitted.
Every market is tied to a primary source of truth. For example, a volcano market might settle based on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, while a hurricane market uses the National Hurricane Center. Other natural disaster related markets use sources like the New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. Payouts only happen when these official agencies issue a final report. If a source is ambiguous, the market may settle to 'No' by default based on the specific contract wording.
Absolutely. This is known as parametric hedging. If you have a $5,000 deductible on your home insurance for wind damage, you could buy enough 'Yes' contracts on a major hurricane market to cover that $5,000. If the storm hits, the market pays out almost instantly, providing you with liquidity while you wait months for a traditional insurance company to process your claim.
For high-stakes markets like alien confirmations, the rules are very strict to avoid any maybe outcomes. Usually, the contract requires a definitive statement from the President, the Department of Defense, or a specific federal agency. A leaked video or an unexplained report would likely result in the market settling to 'No'. The bar for 'Yes' is official, public confirmation.
If you believe the media is overhyping a storm or that the odds of a supervolcano are mathematically near zero, you can buy 'No' contracts. Because 'No' is the overwhelming statistical favorite for most end-of-the-world events, these contracts are often expensive (e.g., 98¢), but they offer a way to earn a small, steady return on the stability of the world.
