Despite some legal issues during the "offseason," Joey Chestnut will be back to try for his 18th career victory as the heavy favorite in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds on Saturday, July 4.
Not only can you pick Chestnut to win the competition, but you can also wager on whether or not he'll break his own world record of 76 hot dogs downed.
Let's have a frank(furter) conversation about where the value lies in this market and give out some wieners, er, winners.
🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | 94% |
| Patrick Bertoletti | 4% |
| James Webb | 2% |
| Crazy Legs Conti | 1% |
| Cameron Meade | 1% |
Hot dogs eaten by Joey Chestnut
Will the men's record (76 hot dogs) be broken?
Odds as of 7-4. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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Joey Chestnut prediction for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Joey Chestnut set the world record for hot dogs eaten with 76 in a 10-minute span in the 2021 edition of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Since then, he's eaten 62, 63, and 70.5 hot dogs in this competition. Those numbers aren't even in his personal Top 5 in this contest.
It's fair to wonder if Chestnut, age 42, is past his prime. Traders certainly believe he is, as this line has been knocked way down from opening at 76.5.
While it would be cool to see Chestnut embrace the "Spirit of '76" in more ways than one as America celebrates its 250th birthday, the smart money is on "No" for 70+ HDBs (hot dogs plus buns).
Pick: Chestnut 70+ hot dogs eaten - No (52% probability at Kalshi)
What is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record?
The record for hot dogs consumed at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is 76 over a 10-minute span, which is also the world record, set by Joey Chestnut in 2021.
🏅 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest results
Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.
| Year | Men's Winner | Hot Dogs | Women's Winner | Hot Dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Joey Chestnut | 70.5 | Miki Sudo | 33 |
| 2024 | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Miki Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
| 2012 | Joey Chestnut | 68 | Sonya Thomas | 45 |
| 2011 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Sonya Thomas | 40 |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs
What is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Competitors try to eat as many hot dogs (with buns) as they can within 10 minutes, with dunking the buns in water encouraged. Any throwing up results in an instant disqualification.
Who has won the most Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contests?
Joey Chestnut has won the men's competition a staggering 17 times. Miki Sudo has won the women's contest 11 times.
Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest held?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is held at the original Nathan's Famous location on the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Coney Island, a neighborhood of Brooklyn, NY.
When is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, and where can I watch?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest begins at 10:45 a.m. ET on July 4 with the women's competition, which will be broadcast on ESPN3. The men will compete at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
