2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks: Joey Chestnut Got That Dog in Him

Update: Doggone it - Joey Chestnut has done it again! Jaws earned his record 17th Mustard Belt by consuming 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. The 41-year-old champ finished well ahead of reigning title holder Patrick Bertoletti, who scarfed down 46.5 dogs to finish a distant second.

Jaws is back – and he’s hungry for more.

Get ready for serious fireworks as Joey "Jaws" Chestnut makes his triumphant return to Coney Island today for the legendary Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest!

After a one-year exile due to a high-stakes deal with Impossible Foods, the undisputed king of competitive eating is back where he belongs chasing glory and gulping dogs.

Not surprisingly, Chestnut is the heavy favorite among oddsmakers and bettors alike. Let's take a closer look at the odds ahead of this year's event. And don't forget to check out Rohit Ponnaiya's Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions before the big event unfolds.

🏆 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winner odds

Data courtesy of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform that operates similarly to the stock exchange. It lets you buy and sell contracts with other users on real-world events, where you can make predictions on the outright winner.

Joey Chestnut is pegged as the clear betting favorite ahead of the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, with an 88 % implied probability of victory. His absence in 2024 stirred excitement among fans, but his unquestioned pedigree remains intact: with a record-breaking 16 titles, including a world record of 76 hot dogs in 2021 at Nathan’s and an impressive 83-dog performance in a Netflix showdown last year, Chestnut long ago cemented his status as the greatest competitive eater ever.

Fresh off resolving the sponsorship clash and back to serious training, many expect he’ll not only recapture the mustard belt, but possibly push past the 80‑dog mark, making his place as the betting favorite all the more justified.

🌭 Hot dogs eaten by the Nathan's Contest winner

Data courtesy of Kalshi.

The 2025 winner, most likely Chestnut, should consume in the 72–76 hot-dog range. That places 70+ firmly in play, 75+ as a solid longshot, and 80+ remaining unlikely. So if you’re betting on 70 or more, you’re aligning with the broad public sentiment and statistical odds.

From a pure data standpoint, Chestnut’s peak was 76 in 2021, then dipped to 62 recently. But his 2024 performance off-stage (83 dogs) and stated goals suggest he’s rebounding, making 75 hot dogs an entirely realistic projection for this year.

What is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest?

The annual event, held on the Fourth of July at Coney Island to celebrate Independence Day, is the great American tradition of stuffing our faces with mystery meat. Competitors try to eat as many hot dogs (with buns) as they can within 10 minutes with dunking the buns in water encouraged. Any throwing up results in an instant disqualification.

🤖 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest AI prediction

We turned to ChatGPT to see who it thinks will gobble the most hot dogs at Coney Island.

Joey Chestnut, the reigning king of competitive eating with 16 Nathan’s titles, is back for the 2025 showdown after missing last year due to a sponsorship spat. Now reunited with Nathan’s, he’s training with renewed intensity and laser focus. With oddsmakers giving him a 96% chance to win, Chestnut is the heavy favorite to reclaim the Mustard Belt—and possibly break his own record of 76 hot dogs.

But don’t count out Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti, the 2024 champ who stunned the world with 58 dogs. He’s gunning for another upset and is likely to push into the low 60s, making this the most exciting contest in years. Still, the hunger, experience, and comeback fire in Chestnut make it his contest to lose.

My bold prediction: Joey Chestnut wins his 17th title with 78 hot dogs, while Bertoletti gives him a run with 64.

📺 How to watch Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The women’s contest kicks off at 10:45 a.m. ET and will be broadcast live on ESPN3 and will be accessible via the ESPN app or website. 

The men’s contest, meanwhile, begins at noon ET and will be broadcast live on ESPN2. Viewers can also watch an alternate "Joey Chestnut Cam" on ESPN3.

No cable? No problem! Cord-cutters can also catch the action via the following live TV streaming platforms that include ESPN:

• fuboTV (7‑day free trial)
• Hulu + Live TV (3‑day free trial)
• DIRECTV Stream (5‑day free trial)
• YouTube TV or Sling TV (many offer free trials or include ESPN in their base package)

📜 The origins and history of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest began on July 4, 1916 when four immigrants allegedly staged an impromptu eating competition at Nathan Handwerker’s hot dog stand on Coney Island to determine who was the most patriotic. Though this origin story has become part of the contest's lore, it was later revealed to be a marketing myth created in the 1970s by promoters. Nevertheless, the contest steadily grew in popularity over the decades, transforming from a quirky local event into a nationally recognized spectacle.

By the 1990s and early 2000s, the contest gained major media attention, thanks in part to the rise of competitive eaters like Takeru Kobayashi, who dramatically increased the winning totals and drew international eyes to the event.

Held annually on Independence Day outside Nathan’s flagship restaurant, the contest is now overseen by Major League Eating and features both men’s and women’s divisions, broadcast live on ESPN. It has become a symbol of American excess and celebration, with tens of thousands attending in person and millions watching from home.

🏅 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.

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