2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds are out for the Fourth of July event that features massive betting favorite Joey Chestnut, who has won 15 of the last 16 years. On the women's side, Miki Sudo is heavily favored to win once again.

Last Updated: Jul 4, 2023 8:29 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joey Chestnut Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Photo By - SIPA USA

Happy Fourth of July!

As we celebrate another Independence Day, we also celebrate one of the day's hungriest competitions — the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island in New York.

This is the Super Bowl for competitive eating with the highest-ranked qualifiers from Major League Eating attempting to down as many hot dogs in buns as possible within 10 minutes. ESPN will air the contest, beginning at 10:30 a.m. ET with the women's event.

If you want to start off your Independence Day celebrations with some fun Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting, we've got you covered with the odds to win — along with our picks and predictions for today's edition of the event.

Nathan's Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Competitor bet365
Joey Chestnut -4,000
Geoffrey Esper +1,400
Any Other Participant +1,600
Nick Wehry +2,200
James Webb +2,800
Darron Breeden +3,300
Gideon Oji +8,000

Odds as of July 4, 2023.

Nathan's Women's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Competitor bet365
Miki Sudo -5,000
Michelle Lesco +1,200
Any Other Participant +2,800

Odds as of July 4, 2023.

Favorites to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

Last year's event took place in front of thousands of cheering fans on Coney Island, and once again, Joey Chestnut rose to the occasion, guzzling down 63 glizzies to capture his 15th title in 16 years.

Despite crushing his nearest competitor by more than 15 hot dogs, that was actually a pedestrian performance by Chestnut's lofty standards. Chestnut had devoured more than 70 dogs in each of the previous five years. 

On the women's side, Miki Sudo pounded in 40 dogs to win the title for the eighth time in nine years. The only time she didn't win during that span was because she opted out of the competition in 2021 due to the birth of her first child (priorities, I guess).

Chestnut is a -4,000 favorite once again, with last year's runner-up, Geoffrey Esper, sitting at +1,400. If you want betting value with Chestnut you might want to consider prop bets, including the Over/Under of 72.5 on how many hot dogs he will put down.

While Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite on the men's side, Sudo is an even bigger favorite to defend her title at -5,000, with her O/U wiener line set at 43.5. Michelle Lesco trails at +1,200 as she tries to regain her title from 2021.

Another fun bet to consider is the head-to-head matchup between Sudo (-110) and her husband Nick Wehry (-130), with their O/U totals separated by just one succulent weenie.

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions

Betting pick: Joey Chestnut Under 73.5 hot dogs (-120) 

Most years, I've been a big fan of backing Joey Jaws on the spread (pun not intended) but oddsmakers have been reluctant to give him a handicap number the last couple of years after he ate 26 more dogs than second-place Esper in 2021 (easily covering the -15.5 spread).

Chestnut dipped below 70 dogs for the first time since 2014 last year and he went well below the O/U of 73.5, which is what it's set at yet again. It's fair to question whether Chestnut has peaked and it's got to be tough to find motivation after dominating a competition like this year after year. It isn't exactly a fun wager to bet the Under in an eating competition, but it's the smart play.

Best Bet: James Webb Top 3 Finish (-150)

While Chestnut should cruise to another victory — and Esper will likely have to settle for second place once again — there is decent value in backing Webb to finish in the Top 3.

The Aussie ended up in third place last year by putting down 41 wieners and that was his first year taking part in the competition. Now that he better understands the timing and technique of this competition (yes, there is a technique to inhaling as many hot dogs as possible in 10 minutes), he should be even better.

Webb is targeting 50 hot dogs for his encore and if he hits that milestone, second place is a very real possibility with that bet paying out at +200.

Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo total combined hot dogs at Nathan's in 2023

Combined hot dogs Odds
Over 116.5 hot dogs -120
Under 116.5 hot dogs -120

Odds as of June 27, 2023

Will men's world record be broken at Nathan's in 2023?

Proposition Odds
Yes +185
No -280

Odds as of June 27, 2023

Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Results

Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.

Year Men's Winner Hot Dogs Women's Winner Hot Dogs
2022 Joey Chestnut 63 Miki Sudo 40
2021 Joey Chestnut  76 Michelle Lesco 30.75
2020 Joey Chestnut 75 Miki Sudo 48.5
2019 Joey Chestnut 71 Miki Sudo 31
2018 Joey Chestnut 74 Miki Sudo 37
2017 Joey Chestnut 72 Miki Sudo 41
2016 Joey Chestnut 70 Miki Sudo 38.5
2015 Matt Stonie 62 Miki Sudo 38
2014 Joey Chestnut 61 Miki Sudo 34
2013 Joey Chestnut 69 Sonya Thomas 36.75
2012 Joey Chestnut 68 Sonya Thomas 45
2011 Joey Chestnut 62 Sonya Thomas 40

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